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Midterm election outlook for Democrats getting dimmer

Midterm election outlook for Democrats getting dimmer

We know the election prospects for Democrats are getting dimmer and dimmer.  We see that in the polls – some of which are analyzed later in this commentary.  Check them out. 

Politics is a game in which anything can happen.  It would be imprudent to make firm predictions on the outcomes of the 2022 midterm elections.  But reading the tea leaves is a quintessential part of the political process for the pundits.  It is an irresistible attraction, and we pundits are not an immovable object.  So, I shall opine.

 Democrats and the media have their narratives.  If current trends hold, those narratives will be proven to be terribly flawed.

One narrative is that Democrats have a “messaging problem.”  It is not the policies and the issues.  No. No. No. They divide their excuses between a “sender” or “recipient” problem.  They keep saying that they (Biden) are not messaging well – or that the American people are just numbskulls and do not get it.

I think there is a different and more fundamental explanation for the Democrats’ declining popularity.  It is not that the public does not understand the Democrats contributions to the people’s betterment.  It is that they do not believe the political propaganda.  They hear the message, but do not believe it.  It is the issues, stupid.

More than 90 percent of the American public believes the nation is going in the wrong direction – and it is the Democrats in the wheelhouse.  One disaster after another is occurring on Biden’s watch – and he is not absolved from blame.  Sixty-four percent of Democrats do not want to see Biden lead the ticket in 2024.  He now has the lowest favorable rating of any President since the advent of polling.  

The Democrat strategy has been to demonize Trump and then spread that toxic imagery across the entire Republican Party.  They did that for two years with the Russian Collusion conspiratorial theory – until that failed when it was debunked by Special Counsel Robert Mueller.  The Ukraine conspiracy theory fared no better in terms of moving the needle.

They are now deeply committed to the Coup Attempt conspiracy theory.  This is being seen for the political hyperbole and spin it is.  Were it not for a large segment of the news media willing to echo the mendacious left-wing narratives in a shameful and dangerous abandonment of traditional journalistic standards and ethics, Democrats would be even less popular – if that is even possible?

Democrats are now attempting to pump up the abortion issue as a game-changer – even though most women – and especially liberal abortion-seeking women – live in states where abortion is still legal, and is likely to remain so in the absence of a national ban.  The mass shootings are offering another opportunity for the far left and the media (excuse the repetition) to see another opportunity to shame voters away from the GOP.

According to Democrat leaders, they have produced many accomplishments for the people … the situation is much better than the people seem to think … and all their campaign issues are manna from the progressive heaven which should be appreciated by the people.  

So, how is it working?  Not well.  And why not?

Weeeell … in a nutshell, the American public is divided between not believing the Democrats narratives – or not liking them.  What else could explain Biden having the lowest favorable rating in presidential history?  He is rated by the people BELOW Trump.  That should get Democrats re-evaluating everything they are saying and doing.

Democrats and their media cronies have thrown just about everything possible at Trump and the GOP – as if both are one and the same.  That is clearly not working. Trump has a set of issues all his own.

Let’s look at the recent Monmouth poll – and keep in mind that Democrats are counting on insurrection, abortion, and guns to be their winning issues.  The Monmouth poll rates the top issues on the minds of the voters as Inflation (33%), gas prices (15%), the economy (9%), everyday bills (6%), abortion (5%), and guns (3%).  And this was before inflation surged up over 9 percent – the highest since the Carter days.

Interestingly, this question did not deal with crime and the southern border – two other issues that do not play out well for Democrats.  I would even offer a third issue that is not adequately considered in news analysis and polling – cultural values.  I think the left has gone so bonkers on many of the cultural value’s issues that it is now a major consideration for voters – and one that does not play well for Democrats.  Voters of all kinds are not responding favorably to communist-style euphemisms like “menstruating person” or “gender fluidity” – or the abandonment of the basic pronouns of “he” and “she.” 

After all the media browbeating of Republicans by the left, the issues that most concern the voting public are those that track against Democrats.  If you follow my commentaries, you know that I have long informed the readers that guns and abortion are not major factors in voting decisions.  

One of the polls that caught my attention was the Politico/Morning Consult poll that directly addressed the Trump issue.  It has an unusual posing of the question, but voters were asked to agree or disagree with a statement that “Trump claimed 2020 election was stolen without evidence.”

Overall, 65 percent of all respondents said that Trump had no evidence – up from 64 percent in June.  Essentially no change.  Here is the breakdown by party affiliation.

June July

Democrats 86 86

Republicans 37 44

Independents 66 63

While Democrats held firm, the GOP respondents actually increased their belief that Trump lacked evidence to prove his claim.  BUT … independents had less belief that Trump lacked evidence – meaning that more independents believe Trump DID have evidence of vote fraud.  They actually moved away from the Democrat narrative.  Ponder that.  After all the highly promoted testimony by the Select Committee – and that constant reference to the “big lie” — and the non-aligned independents are more likely to believe Trump.

We are not talking about proof or truth – but perception.  In politics, perception is reality.  What this poll suggests is that the Democrat narratives have not moved the needle in their direction one iota.  If independents moved at all, they have shifted slightly to the GOP side.

Another portion of that survey was even more informative.  It showed that the Democrats wet dream of having Trump prosecuted in a court-of-law was even less successful.  When responding to the statement, “Trump should be prosecuted for attempts to overturn the election,” the respondents in June gave it a 66 percent “yes.”  In July – after more of those so-called “hearings” — the percent of people wanting Trump to be prosecuted dropped to 50 percent.

When you view the response in terms of partisanship, here is what you get

June July

Democrats 87 84

Republicans 27 12

Independents 60 48

Even Democrats were less desirous of having Trump prosecuted.   Among Republicans, those open to a prosecution dropped by more than half.  And just look at the critically important independent voters.  They wanted Trump prosecuted by an almost two-thirds majority in June.  But by July, less than half of that voting bloc wanted to see Trump prosecuted.

These figures clearly show that the Democrats strategy of making Trump and their concocted coup attempt strategy a centerpiece of their 2022 election effort is proving to be a colossal failure.  With the number moving against Democrats, it is not unreasonable to suggest that the strategy is backfiring.

Unless Democrats can make an unprecedented change in the trajectory of the 2022 election, this could make 2010 look like a small victory for the GOP.  That was the year when Democrats lost control of the House in what President Obama called “a shellacking.”

The American people are much smarter than the left would like to believe.  We are not about to drink the Kool-Aid no matter how often MSNBC, CNN, the Washington Post, and the New York Times are serving it.

I would never want to be overly confident – especially when it comes to potential GOP victories.  I am feeling better about November 2022, however.  It could be a blowout … a landslide … a wave election.   If it is, I will be honor-bound to send Biden a “thank you” note.

 So, there ‘tis.

About The Author

Larry Horist

So,there‘tis… The opinions, perspectives and analyses of Larry Horist Larry Horist is a businessman, conservative writer and political strategist with an extensive background in economics and public policy. Clients of his consulting firm have included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman. He has served as a consultant to the Nixon White House and travelled the country as a spokesman for President Reagan’s economic reforms. He has testified as an expert witness before numerous legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress. Horist has lectured and taught courses at numerous colleges and universities, including Harvard, Northwestern, DePaul universities, Hope College and his alma mater, Knox College. He has been a guest on hundreds of public affairs talk shows, and hosted his own program, “Chicago In Sight,” on WIND radio. Horist was a one-time candidate for mayor of Chicago and served as Executive Director of the City Club of Chicago, where he led a successful two-year campaign to save the historic Chicago Theatre from the wrecking ball. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries appear frequently on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He is praised by readers for his style, substance and sense of humor. According to one reader, Horist is the “new Charles Krauthammer.” He is actively semi-retired in Boca Raton, Florida where he devotes his time to writing. So, there ‘tis is Horist’s signature sign off.


  1. Kyle

    The democrats are getting dimmer and a lot more people are getting smarter

  2. cmws

    Dems are gearing up to cheat with mail in ballots and new Covid surge that will peak in November.

  3. Chipper

    What trash will the Democrats come up with on their “October Surprise”?

  4. Frank stetson

    This does look like Kansas, Larry. The Republicans tried to sleaze one by in holding the constitutional abortion vote during a primary, making yes look lik no via ballot weasel words, and then got surprised when the 36% expected turn out was well over 50%. Oh yeah Kansas sisters; now we go national!!

    It appears Larry, that the abortion issue does matter.

    Thanks to Joe Biden, gas prices have fallen for the last 51 days. Still too high, but looking better for the midterms.

    Today, Larry’s poll that showed that a generic Republican Senate was preferred, has turned to the Democrats favor, according to the polls.

    Larry says Trump does not matter in Trump’s party, but many of the winners of the GOP primaries in the last round were Trump in endorsements and Trumplicants all. We’ll see if it matters in the final vote. Of course, it was a foregone conclusion that trumps endorsement of Eric would turn out to be a winner

    I think you’re gonna need a bigger boat

    Alex gonna need a bigger wallet. Go Sandy Hook parents. Very brave souls all.