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Last word (not) on Biden polling numbers

Last word (not) on Biden polling numbers

The reason President Biden’s polling numbers are newsworthy is that every time they should have bottomed out, they go down further.  As a preface to any analysis, we must concede two facts that the White House trumpets in response.  These are only polling numbers, and it is almost a year until the election.

Yes, polling numbers are a picture of the likely voting at a moment in time – this moment.  The further out from the election, the less reliable they are as a predictor of outcomes.  To make any sense of polling numbers, you have to apply a rule many political analysts use.  The closer the margins, the less reliable the numbers are as predictors.

So, the fact that President Trump leads Biden in several polls, the numbers are not only close, but within the highly touted “margin of error.”  Even if the election were today, the polling numbers would not be reliable in predicting the winner.

What is noteworthy, however, is how well Trump is doing despite all the legal baggage and the extensive demonization of him in the media.  In fact, if you checked out the polling numbers in the past, you would not have foreseen Trump’s rise as he faced an unprecedented number of serious legal cases – including federal crimes.  That has been a headscratcher for a lot of political pundits – especially on the left.

We also have to keep in mind that while the election is essentially twelve months away, the campaign season – in which voters start locking in their votes – is only a few months ahead. By August, the 2024 presidential election will most likely already be decided in the minds of the voters – only to be confirmed on Election Day.  That means Biden does not have as much time to change the numbers as some suggest.

With all the disclaimers, however, the polling numbers do have some relevancy – especially in the issue-oriented questions. 

The first ominous fact for Biden is that his numbers have not bottomed out.  In the last round of polling, they are worse than ever.  Is this now the bottom, or just another waystation on the way down?

The Numbers

So, let us look at the new numbers.  I see the NBC poll as particularly bad news for Biden.  It is a poll that has a reputation for leaning a bit to the left.  It is noteworthy when MSNBC’s numbers guru, Steve Kornacki, is giving very bad news to the Biden camp.  But that is exactly what he has to do.

Reporting on the NBC Poll, Kornacki noted that one year ago, Biden led Trump 45 to 41 percent.  Today, Trump beats Biden 47 to 43 percent.  That is an eight-point shift.  That is a lot of voters changing their minds.  The trend is as important than the numbers.

The reason for Biden’s sinking numbers against Trump are seen in the Job Approval ratings.  His overall rating is 40 percent approval and 57 percent disapproval.  That is the lowest rating for Biden from all previous NBC polls.

As expected, 91 percent of Republican voters disapprove of Biden’s job performance – with only 7 percent approving.  What is disturbing to team Biden are the Democrat voters’ numbers.  Only 77 percent of Democrats approve of Biden’s job performance with a full 20 percent disapproving. One out of over every five Democrat voters disapprove. Ouch!

There is a general assumption that independent voters lean left.  Not according to the NBC Poll.  Sixty-three percent disapprove and 30 percent approve.  That is a two-to-one ratio against Biden.  The independent voters are more in line with Republican voters than with Democrat voters.

One of Biden’s campaign’s selling points was that his vast experience in foreign policy would be an asset.  Apparently not.  Two-thirds of voters disapprove of his foreign policies with only 33 percent approving.  He does moderately better in handling the Hamas War but is still underwater with 56 disapproval and 34 percent approval.  This needs a closer look since it appears that his slightly better numbers are coming from the right – Republicans and independents who support Israel.  Biden is still facing a significant defection from Democrats on the far left.

You see Biden’s problem in the demographic response to the War.  Biden carries with the 65-plus voters 53 to 41 percent – a 12-point positive gap.  But with the 18 to 34 crowd, he gets 70 percent disapproval to a 20 percent approval –a 50-point negative gap.  The latter is a group Biden carried comfortably in 2020.

Biden seems to suffer a greater negative impact with more alternative candidates in the race.   However, it is useless to analyze that impact at this point since we do not even know who is in and who is not.

There is one ironic piece of information about alternative candidates.  The “No Labels” movement has declared that they want a bipartisan ticket with a Republican heading it – assumedly to hurt Trump.  So much for no labels.

While the polls are not entirely predictive at this time, they do have meaning.  It means Biden is in a deeper hole than ever and we do not know if he has stopped digging.  Despite the cliché, you do not dig yourself out of a hole.

So, there ‘tis.

About The Author

Larry Horist

So,there‘tis… The opinions, perspectives and analyses of Larry Horist Larry Horist is a businessman, conservative writer and political strategist with an extensive background in economics and public policy. Clients of his consulting firm have included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman. He has served as a consultant to the Nixon White House and travelled the country as a spokesman for President Reagan’s economic reforms. He has testified as an expert witness before numerous legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress. Horist has lectured and taught courses at numerous colleges and universities, including Harvard, Northwestern, DePaul universities, Hope College and his alma mater, Knox College. He has been a guest on hundreds of public affairs talk shows, and hosted his own program, “Chicago In Sight,” on WIND radio. Horist was a one-time candidate for mayor of Chicago and served as Executive Director of the City Club of Chicago, where he led a successful two-year campaign to save the historic Chicago Theatre from the wrecking ball. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries appear frequently on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He is praised by readers for his style, substance and sense of humor. According to one reader, Horist is the “new Charles Krauthammer.” He is actively semi-retired in Boca Raton, Florida where he devotes his time to writing. So, there ‘tis is Horist’s signature sign off.

15 Comments

  1. frank stetson

    “Despite the cliché, you do not dig yourself out of a hole.”

    “Mission Accomplished.”

    • Jim lucas

      Don’t tell us next November that Biden won. There will be some real hell raised Jan6 would be nothing

      • Edward L Schuetzle

        I can promise you resident biden will win with 540 million votes, making him the most even more popular resident in history.
        It doesn’t matter who votes, only how much time they have to “find” more votes.

        • Dan tyree

          The democrats are searching the obituaries now

      • Tom

        So we are a year away from the elections and you are already advocating violence if your party is not elected? This is exactly the kind of attitude that needs to stop. Barr said there was no election fraud. Many others have said the same thing. Yet you and other minions of Trump continue to believe the lie and advocate for violence. Pathetic but I guess this is how you choose to use your free speech rights.

        • Jim lucas

          Barr is full of shit and was threatened or bribed

          • Tom

            Can you produce even a mere shred of evidence for what you say?

  2. JoeyP

    WOW! . . . HOW low can you go? I guess “Beijing Joe” Biden is finding OUT, and hopefully that goes for the REST of the Democrat Party. We need to get RID of them and VOTE them out of office – permanently and ASAP!

  3. Tom

    Polls have some legitimacy in showing attitudes. There is almost a year until the next elections. American attitudes can change quickly. And with the possibility of an independent more centrist ticket, numbers can change just as quickly. While there may be an 8 point swing in opinion, the numbers have been fairly constant that more Americans want to better choices that Trump versus Biden. Most Americans are not in favor of a rematch for a variety of reasons.

    The article suggest that the “No Labels” party wanting a Republican at the head means the no labels is gone. I am not sure about that. You are viewing it as an attack on Trump, I do not think so. The polls have said for some time now that the electorate feels Republicans handle the economy better – I am not sure about that either since Trump did it by adding 25% more to national debt. So why not let a centrist Republican / moderately conservative lead the ticket with a centrist Dem as the running mate – and no left and right radical fringes to deal with. A party that has the interests of We The People at heart. No MTG or AOC and Tlaib squad to deal with. I would like that. And as Reagan said to Mondale, “Its the economy stupid.” We already know that neither party is running a candidate that will work well for the majority of the people, and it will be a real shit show. So why not a third party constructed as aforementioned.

  4. Darren

    I do not care who wins as long as it was a legitimate election.
    I am happy with any honest out come. That is what an election is for.
    2000 mules showed us other wise. Watching the news and seeing less votes for a
    candidate 1 hour later than he had an hour ago?
    Needing 5 days to count votes?
    Non of this is new, the mob has had influence in elections since the sixties.
    The one sidedness of the news for their candidate is were all the problems started.
    Maybe if the news quits its commentary and actually just reports the news, this country will
    have a chance of the old so called normal.
    Illegal’s voting? Dead people voting?
    People not even living in the state voting? not to mention making donations to a Candidate?
    The republicans at least have debates, recognize other individuals running for office.
    JFK now sees this whole shit show and is complaining as he wanted to run Demarcate!
    The media is CROOKED! Period! Just watch any Dem biased News show for 1 hour.
    NOTHING about Biden’s Lies will be shown. Nothing for JFK shown. Just Trump Bashing.
    Yea, we are off to a Fair Election!

    • Tom

      Well why shouldn’t Dem biased news shows bash Trump. Fox and other GOP biased news show routinely bash Biden and mercilessly bash Harris. This is free speech and you are free to turn the channel. Besides, what are you doing watching all of those corny Dem news shows anyway?

      And why can’t dead people vote. They own property and have never sent a letter rescinding their membership in the party or of US citizenship. Why do we always have to focus so much on the living?

      Republicans have debates yet the front runner has not attended a single debate. So its really debates – 1.

      Barr and many others said the election was not tainted by election fraud sufficient to cause any change in the results. Barr said that in his investigation he could not find fraud (including mules). Besides, your numbers are low. Dems could have mustered at least 10,000 mules.

      And mob people are generally strong Catholics, and they are anti-abortion. What’s wrong with that? They are very supportive of business opportunities and strong economy and strong military. The only border they want open is between the USA and Sicily which we call the Atlantic Ocean.

      • Jim lucas

        Awww. Joe and his ho is being slammed. Boo hoo.

    • frank stetson

      Darren, fact checkers and a number of experts have pretty much shot 2000 mules to Hell. Rather than bore you, the Reuters results are at the end of this.

      But how about a simple sniff test? DO YOU BELEIVE FOR ONE SECOND THAT IF TRUMP HAD THE GOODS THAT HE WOULD NOT BE HEADING TO THE SUPREME COURT?

      Why would he need the media, etc. He’s got all the money in the world, plenty of supporters, lawyers will to break the law for him, if you really think about it, if he had damning evidence, wouldn’t we know it? Wouldn’t he be in court with it? Wouldn’ he be winning?

      And why would a crooked court get in his way? He’s Trump, remember…….

      Here’s Reuters, UK, rated least biased, highest factual content.
      *https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL2N2XJ0OQ/*

  5. frank stetson

    Tom, the frustrated in any country can become disenfranchised increasing the susceptibility to these false ideologies of hate, of destruction over construction, defamation over acceptance. Happens on both sides, we call ours antifa or those nuns. They imagine the world is rigged against them – the news, Hollywood, the tax man, the court system, while their protection fades like the police, armed forces, etc.

    Like the Republican party has leaned into Trumpism who was able to market to their fears and be inclusive to a number of new fringe groups for the Republican party like most white supremacists, evangelicals, and racists. Perhaps we should call it Bannonolitics since his patina is all over this shit. For their pick as leader, here’s a life-long Democrat that came to office as the businessman outsider looking to change all that is Washington. Turns out he cheated at business and re-stock DC with deplorables like the Georgia 19. He started by trying to appease many, almost Presidential in actions. In the end, he pleased less than half and went off the reservation drunk with power. After he lost, and folks, TRUMP LOST, he changed.

    NOW he deems half the country a severe problem to the country. He brands them as the cause of people’s grievance and then markets them as subhuman marxists, communists, traitors, treasonous, even inhuman vermin and pledges to do away with them. Even good Republicans toe the line agreeing to things that they would have shun before because they think it’s better than any alternative. Unchristian things too.

    Have you listened to him lately? Have you seen the saucers? It’s downright scary. All I would ask is for you to read a rally transcript. It’s frightening. I would think Leticia James is an axe wielding bogeyman and Engoran is the Devil incarnate, pitchfork in hand. Biden is demented and Hunter….oh no, can’t even say that here. If M T Greene can’t talk about Hunter’s pornography, what is there? So, with that, I guess it’s time for TOP TEN TRUMPISMS: 2023 Campaign Edition, from the party of Lincoln, with “malice for none” and “charity for all:”

    1. The first is loved by Republicans, not shunned at all by them, but should be a historic “deplorable” moment: “we pledge to you that we will root out the communists, Marxists, fascists and the radical left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country, that lie and steal and cheat on elections, and will do anything possible — they’ll do anything — whether legally or illegally, to destroy America, and to destroy the American dream.” You know, I think it’s possibly braggadocio and he will pivot to be Presidential soon. NOT.

    2. In Sioux City, he said: “We’ve done well here in Sioux Falls,” asking how can you be two places at once when you’re really nowhere at all?

    3. “If we don’t stop the cheating, you’re not going to have a country,” which is why so many Trump lawyers already pled guilty to cheating…. but the brave marketer slapped a “brand new” sticker over it, mentioned his trials, and added: ““It’s a form of cheating.” Sure, isn’t everything that makes Trump feel bad? It’s beyond belief that anyone can still believe there was any significant 2020 election fraud. Even Trump’s did not succeed.

    4. And after the Hamas attack, he said: “I call them the J6 hostages, not prisoners,” linking US Republican criminals, most of whom freely, remorsefully, admitted their guilt, with the Hamas hostages. I feel that pivot coming on…… NOT NOT

    5. But being able to be two places at once, and nowhere at all allows Trump to morph Biden into anything evil like: “Just like the Cuban regime, the Biden regime is trying to put their political opponents in jail, shutting down free speech, taking bribes and kickbacks to enrich themselves.” You should see when he compares Biden to Boris Badenov.

    6. “We’re close to having no country.”

    7. And to Michigan back in 2020: “And thank you very much for four years ago, but I gave you a lot of auto plants.” It was one plant, maybe. It was a reopen of an existing plant, under a sweatheart deal with Michigan that still counts as Trump did it. Biden put in a $15B investment in new and retooled plants and becusse of that, automakers have tossed in tens of billions on top of the Biden investment (loans).

    8. In closing to Mich: “ I got Man of the Year in Michigan, 12 years ago and I left, I said, I made a speech, I said, You know, Mexico and Canada, they’re taking all your car business. Why are you letting that happen?” Cool, but never happened…. A lie. Trump made it up. He does that a lot.

    9. And now for some ethnic moments: “We have a lot of great Cubans here,” Trump said. “And no one ever did more for Americans who love Cuba than a gentleman named Donald J. Trump when he was president.” Most certainly a man of the people although it’s hard to point to what he did for Americans who love Cuba. Let’s digress a bit for some Trumpian color commentary over the years….

    a. “I have a great relationship with the blacks. I’ve always had a great relationship with the blacks.” It’s my favorite crayon.
    b. “No President has done more for Israel than I have” those jews been cooking my books forever.
    i. “Somewhat surprisingly, however, our wonderful Evangelicals are far more appreciative of this than the people of the Jewish faith, especially those living in the U.S.,” freaking evangelicals.
    ii. “I’ll tell you, the evangelical Christians love Israel more than the Jews in this country,” because he measures those things.
    c. “Black guys counting my money! I hate it. The only kind of people I want counting my money are short guys that wear yarmulkes every day,” giving you a glimpse into who he really is.
    d. “It is very important that we totally protect our Asian American community in the United States, and all around the world. They are amazing people, and the spreading of the Virus is NOT their fault in any way, shape, or form. They are working closely with us to get rid of it. WE WILL PREVAIL TOGETHER!” This was done after Trump’s previous remarks caused so many death threats to Americans with ASIAN heritage forcing Trump into a rare walk-back of sorts.
    e. “Any Catholic or Christian that votes for a Democrat, I have to say, they’re fools” which is considerably better than vermin, feel good about it! He hates you less.

    10. “IF YOU GO AFTER ME, I’M COMING AFTER YOU!” Not if I see you first, and I SEE YOU, I KNOW YOU.

    In our next fun-filled episode: Trump dons a speedo to go after the gay vote, because he has many gay friends.

    The point of all this is, please, listen to the man, hear what he is saying, and ask yourself —- can you really be a Christian and vote for that? Can you be an American and vote for that. I am all for vigorous discourse, but I would never say this about you. I would never say it about anyone.

    He has called this his campaign for retribution, revenge if you will. He has announced programs to do exactly that. Read this guy. Believe this guy. Start with the text from the 1.6.2021 rally, it starts thereIt’s not braggadocio anymore. It’s not party. This is not a Republican, never was, you were marketed. Next time in, if you are on the list, he is COMING for you. Or his minions. Or some fool with a gun having a bad day. Ask yourself, is this who you really are?

  6. Tom

    Interesting list Frank and fun to read. Well like I said before, I am holding out for a third party centrist candidate. I thought Liz Chaney said it best today or yesterday when she said that the USA is slowly sliding into a dictatorship. She was speaking of Trump. I just get this sick feeling that come 2024 our choices are going to be really bad.

    I read today that Dr. Ben Carson is high up on the short list for VP on the Trump ticket. That shocked me as Ben always seemed like such as sensible man. Have you read or heard anything about that?