Large Scale World Famine Looms Larger
We wrote in a previous article that food shortages in the world were a certainty over the next year.
But there is another facet to the production of food that has emerged that could severely elevate the upcoming crisis.
A shortage of fertilizer.
South American countries are already experiencing drought conditions that have lessened their output. But now we find that a shortage of fertilizer will make yields even lower. Fertilizer generally increases yield by 30% to 40% and is almost universally applied.
Maybe the U.S. exports less, Latin America exports less. We are already looking at a shortage of up to 15% in wheat and corn. Suppose we subtract another 5% or 10% to the shortage of food in developing countries?
And let’s look at the situation on the ground in Ukraine. When last we heard three weeks ago, the Ukrainian agricultural minister said that 70% of the land would be sown. However, the conditions on the ground have become worse, with fuel battles raging and fuel sources being blown up.
And there are other factors. Inflation in the dollar will disproportionately affect third world nations, making food even tougher to afford. In addition, supply chains are not entirely healed from the Covid shut downs. All of these factors are difficult to quantify precisely, but rough calculations show alarming results.
Can the world stand up to a food shortage that could reach 20%? or 30%?
As we said before, vulnerable countries that import large quantities of food include Libya, Egypt, Bangladesh, Tunisia and Yemen. They can least afford it and have little political clout.
In the U.S. we may experience higher prices because we can pay the prices and divert food to ourselves. In those countries, the people will go without.
As I have said in many articles about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, this is all on the Biden Administration. Competent leadership in the most powerful country in the world could have stopped this invasion. Biden has failed.