
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Prior to the 2022 Midterm Election, virtually every politician, pollster, and pundit in America said two things with certainty – Republicans would take control of the House and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy will be the next Speaker.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">While I did not entirely disagree with those prospects, I had written several commentaries explaining my opinion as to why I did not believe he was the best choice. ; I based it on a number of fumbles – small and large. ;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">I believe his flipping and flopping have hurt his credibility – the one asset no political leader can afford to lose. ; I thought he mishandled the response to the Capitol Hill riot … the Liz Cheney defection … ; and the formation of the Speaker Pelosi kangaroo Select Committee. ; He is not one of the most powerful salesmen on the political soapbox.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">McCarthy was able to get himself to the top post in the Republican House caucus. ; That is a noteworthy accomplishment. ; But that is playing the insider game better than others. ; Being Speaker, you must have outside game talents &#8212; the power of public persuasion over internal political gut combat. ; McCarthy just does not have it.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">My personal favorite for Speaker is Louisiana Congressman Steve Scalise – but there are others who could fill the position.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Well, the 2022 Midterm Election did not go as McCarthy would have liked. ; If Republicans had picked up 30 or 40 seats – as had been expected early on – McCarthy would probably be sailing into the Speaker’s office without a doubt.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">McCarty’s problem is that there are several of his members who are not keen on him as Speaker. ; McCarthy would have easily staved off a tempest-in-a-teapot rebellion from those associated with what is known as the Freedom Caucus. ; But with the margin so close, they can exert significant influence by withholding their vote – preventing McCarthy from getting the 218 Republican votes he needs to become Speaker.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The word out of Washington as of this writing is that McCarthy does not have the votes. ; Some think he will eventually get the votes, but only after making serious concessions to the Freedom Caucus. ; That usually means committee chairmanships, support for favored legislation, and even help raising campaign money.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">But for the first time, there is serious doubt being expressed that McCarthy will be able to get those 218 votes. ; You have to keep in mind that a lot of votes that McCarthy would have gotten when he was a potential slam dunk winner may slip away.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Ironically, Democrats could come to McCarthy’s rescue – believing that he would be the weakest and least effective Speaker. ; Unlike the Minority Leader position – which takes a majority vote of the PARTY, the Speaker is elected by a vote of the entire house.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Traditionally, the minority party does not meddle in the election of a speaker, but today’s Democrats have been cynically willing to break tradition for political gain. ; We saw how Pelosi used (abused) her power to kick Republicans off her one-sided Select Committee – and how Democrats spent $100 million dollars on Republican primary candidates they considered to be the weakest opponents.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Congressman Andy Biggs does not equivocate. ; He says that McCarthy “does not have the votes” – and that the wannabe Speaker is in denial. ; He said the Minority Leader is “getting ahead of himself” when he talks about what he will do when he is Speaker.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">It is increasingly possible that the selection of the Speaker will require many votes over several weeks. There has not been such a contentious Speaker battle in more than a century. ; If McCarthy does not secure the Speakership in the first couple of votes, it is likely he never will.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In my opinion, that would be a good thing.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">So, there ‘tis.</p>

Kevin McCarthy may not be the next House Speaker
