Early on, I expressed my opinion that President Trump could only win if there were a large field of candidates. Frankly, I assumed that Republicans were smart enough to not let that happen. I should have known better.
Not only did a fairly large number of Republican presidential wannabes enter the race, but they were also – by and large – the most unlikely candidates to even come close to the nomination. Did they really think they had a shot?
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis appeared to pose the greatest threat to Trump. Had he had the field to himself – or just one or two other Trump challengers – he may have fared much better. We might have been looking at a close Trump/DeSantis contest today. But with a dozen others taking bites out of the anti-Trump vote – and his own clumsy start – DeSantis could not build on his initial 20 percent support.
Instead of taking away votes from Trump, the challengers merely were fighting for a market share among themselves. The weakness of the challengers has enabled Trump to extend his lead – making him the predestined winner in the eyes of many politicians and pundits.
While Trump is in the very dominant position, I am not convinced that he is invincible. Politics is a profession in which anything can happen. Trump could lose out in his quest for the GOP nomination – but NOT as long as there are so many candidates playing in the kiddie pool.
As you approach the actual primary voting season, there is still time and a means for Trump to be beaten. The time to change the trajectory of the GOP primary race is NOW. That means (1) most of the candidates need to exit the race and (2) the remaining candidate or candidates must deploy a primary-by-primary strategy to build momentum behind one alternative candidate.
Some of the weakest of the weak candidates have already dropped out. You may not recall them by name since they did not attract much attention in the first place. They were given the coup de grâce by the rules set forth by the Republican National Committee (RNC), which prevented them from being on stage for the first debate, The RNC essentially reduced the field to 8 candidates in that debate.
Among those who we committed to political oblivion – and quickly dropped out – were California radio personality Larry Elders, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson and former Texas Congressman Will Hurd. After the second Republican debate, the stage was reduced to six candidates with former Vice President Pence dropping out of the race.
Pence was the most significant candidate to drop out. Conventional wisdom based on history would have had him as a viable if not dominant candidate – but these are not conventional times. Based on the divisions in the Republican Party, there was no way in Hell that Pence would secure the nomination. Once he understood that he was not going to secure the nomination, he wisely dropped out.
The field of candidates is still too large. If there is any hope of defeating Trump in the GOP primaries, other candidates need to pack up and go home.
So, who should go and who should stay?
North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum was very impressive on the debate stage, but it did not translate into a significant uptick in support. He needs to bow out.
South Carolina Senator Tim Scott should go. I like him, but he has no chance of winning the nomination. It appears he will lose in his home state to South Carolina’s former Governor Nikki Haley.
Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy has built a small support base, but GOP voters do not see him as ready for prime time. He talks the talk but does not build confidence that he could walk the walk. In terms of politics, his best days may be behind him.
Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has staked his campaign on being the most anti of the anti-Trump candidates. His political pugilism will not get him the nomination. He has not even been able to get into third place.
If all those aforementioned folks would drop out, that would leave the contest between DeSantis and Haley as the most formidable challengers to Trump. In a previous commentary, I suggested that DeSantis should drop out and endorse Haley. In fact, I think they should all do that. (Just my personal opinion).
As long as he holds the second spot, DeSantis has no reason to give up – but it would be both a prudent and politically beneficial decision. At his age, he can pursue his presidential ambitions for years to come. He would enhance that prospect by possibly being on the ticket as Vice President.
One might make the same argument for a Haley departure, but I personally lean to DeSantis bowing out because I see Haley as the strongest candidate against Trump in the primaries – and would be the most formidable candidate in the General Election.
If the Democrat candidate is Biden – or Vice President Harris or California Governor Newsom – I would have to vote for a Republican administration – reluctantly if it is Trump, and enthusiastically if it is Haley.
Until there is a mass exodus from the GOP field, I concur with most observers that it will be Trump again in 2024.
So, there ‘tis.