
<p>Early on, I expressed my opinion that President Trump could only win if there were a large field of candidates. Frankly, I assumed that Republicans were smart enough to not let that happen. I should have known better. ; ;</p>



<p>Not only did a fairly large number of Republican presidential wannabes enter the race, but they were also – by and large – the most unlikely candidates to even come close to the nomination. Did they really think they had a shot?</p>



<p>Florida Governor Ron DeSantis appeared to pose the greatest threat to Trump. ; Had he had the field to himself – or just one or two other Trump challengers – he may have fared much better. ; We might have been looking at a close Trump/DeSantis contest today. ; But with a dozen others taking bites out of the anti-Trump vote – and his own clumsy start – DeSantis could not build on his initial 20 percent support.</p>



<p>Instead of taking away votes from Trump, the challengers merely were fighting for a market share among themselves. ; The weakness of the challengers has enabled Trump to extend his lead – making him the predestined winner in the eyes of many politicians and pundits.</p>



<p>While Trump is in the very dominant position, I am not convinced that he is invincible. ; Politics is a profession in which anything can happen. ; Trump could lose out in his quest for the GOP nomination – but NOT as long as there are so many candidates playing in the kiddie pool.</p>



<p>As you approach the actual primary voting season, there is still time and a means for Trump to be beaten. ; The time to change the trajectory of the GOP primary race is NOW. ; That means (1) most of the candidates need to exit the race and (2) the remaining candidate or candidates must deploy a primary-by-primary strategy to build momentum behind one alternative candidate.</p>



<p>Some of the weakest of the weak candidates have already dropped out. ; You may not recall them by name since they did not attract much attention in the first place. ; They were given the <em>coup de grâc</em>e by the rules set forth by the Republican National Committee (RNC), which prevented them from being on stage for the first debate, The RNC essentially reduced the field to 8 candidates in that debate.</p>



<p>Among those who we committed to political oblivion – and quickly dropped out – were California radio personality Larry Elders, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson and former Texas Congressman Will Hurd. ; After the second Republican debate, the stage was reduced to six candidates with former Vice President Pence dropping out of the race.</p>



<p>Pence was the most significant candidate to drop out. ; Conventional wisdom based on history would have had ; him as a viable if not dominant candidate – but these are not conventional times. ; Based on the divisions in the Republican Party, there was no way in Hell that Pence would secure the nomination. ; Once he understood that he was not going to secure the nomination, he wisely dropped out.</p>



<p>The field of candidates is still too large. ; If there is any hope of defeating Trump in the GOP primaries, other candidates need to pack up and go home. ;</p>



<p>So, who should go and who should stay?</p>



<p>North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum was very impressive on the debate stage, but it did not translate into a significant uptick in support. ; He needs to bow out.</p>



<p>South Carolina Senator Tim Scott should go. ; I like him, but he has no chance of winning the nomination. ; It appears he will lose in his home state to South Carolina’s former Governor Nikki Haley.</p>



<p>Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy has built a small support base, but GOP voters do not see him as ready for prime time. ; He talks the talk but does not build confidence that he could walk the walk. ; In terms of politics, his best days may be behind him.</p>



<p>Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has staked his campaign on being the most anti of the anti-Trump candidates. ; His political pugilism will not get him the nomination. He has not even been able to get into third place.</p>



<p>If all those aforementioned folks would drop out, that would leave the contest between DeSantis and Haley as the most formidable challengers to Trump. ; In a previous commentary, I suggested that DeSantis should drop out and endorse Haley. ; In fact, I think they should all do that. (Just my personal opinion).</p>



<p>As long as he holds the second spot, DeSantis has no reason to give up – but it would be both a prudent and politically beneficial decision. ; At his age, he can pursue his presidential ambitions for years to come. He would enhance that prospect by possibly being on the ticket as Vice President.</p>



<p>One might make the same argument for a Haley departure, but I personally lean to DeSantis bowing out because I see Haley as the strongest candidate against Trump in the primaries – and would be the most formidable candidate in the General Election.</p>



<p>If the Democrat candidate is Biden – or Vice President Harris or California Governor Newsom – I would have to vote for a Republican administration – reluctantly if it is Trump, and enthusiastically if it is Haley.</p>



<p>Until there is a mass exodus from the GOP field, I concur with most observers that it will be Trump again in 2024.</p>



<p>So, there ‘tis.</p>

It is drop-out time for GOP candidates
