Several international observers expressed surprise that the Israeli response to the attack on the Jewish state by Iran was rather tepid. It seems to be in line with President Biden’s demand that the attack should not include nuclear or energy production sites. Though directed at military and industrial targets, only two individuals were reported to have been killed. That may not be an accurate number since the folks in Tehran traditionally play down any attacks on their country as ineffective.
That is not to say that the attack was merely a symbolic tit-for-tat. Israel showed that it can reach anywhere in Iran it so chooses. It showed that the Irani defense system is inadequate – and that Israeli jet fighters can reach targets deep in Iran and return home safely.
Israel’s weapons destroyed several buildings at Parchin Military Base – a location indirectly associated with Iran’s nuclear program. They also caused significant damage to Khojir Military Base, where solid fuel is produced for ballistic missiles. Israel also attacked drone manufacturing facilities – which could limit the shipment of drones to Russia for use in Ukraine.
According to international assessments, the Israeli attacks did significant damage to Iran’s war production and weapons inventory – and degraded its ability to attack Israel in the near future. Israel has exposed the “lion of the Middle East” as a “paper tiger” – just as it disproved prevailing beliefs that Hezbollah was too formidable for Israel to take on.
Regardless, the leaders in Tehran have promised to retaliate for the attack on Iran. But by limiting the scope of its retaliatory attack, Israel has put Iran in a box. World leaders on both sides are advising the leaders in Iran to cool it. However, it is likely that Iran will retaliate at some time in the future – but not likely in the immediate future.
By engaging in a tit-for-tat with Iran, Israel can – and will – focus now on taking out Iran’s proxies in the region – specifically Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis. They can now do so with greater vigor, knowing that Iran’s ability to support its proxies is greatly diminished. In both a strategic and tactical sense, Israel’s attack on Iran was more successful – directly and indirectly – than it may appear on the surface. At the end of this round, Israel clearly has Iran staggering – and will likely come back for the knockout in a later round. Stay tuned.
So, there ‘tis.