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Israel-Gaza Peace? Hamas Says “Maybe.” The Smart Bet Says “Don’t Count On It.”

&NewLine;<h4 class&equals;"wp-block-heading">What Trump put on the table<&sol;h4>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">President Donald Trump unveiled a 20-point plan that starts with a simple trade&period; There would be an immediate ceasefire&period; All Israeli hostages would be released within 72 hours&period; In return&comma; Israel would free 250 prisoners serving life terms and 1&comma;700 Palestinians detained since Oct&period; 7&comma; 2023&comma; including women and children&period; The deal also covers remains&period; For each Israeli hostage whose body is returned&comma; Israel would release the remains of 15 Palestinians&period; The first phase would also open Gaza to large-scale aid&period; Newsweek reported that hospitals&comma; power stations&comma; and basic infrastructure would receive immediate help once a ceasefire begins&period; The plan outlines a pathway for Palestinian self-determination&period; It says Hamas would have no role in governing Gaza and calls for a monitored process to put weapons permanently beyond use&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<h4 class&equals;"wp-block-heading">What Hamas says it might accept<&sol;h4>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">Hamas publicly said it would accept parts of the plan&period; A spokesman told Al Jazeera the group is ready to release the remaining hostages and transfer governing authority in Gaza to a technocratic administration&period; Hamas added that other provisions &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;require further consultation&period;” In its formal statement&comma; Hamas said it agreed to free Israeli hostages &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;according to the exchange formula contained in President Trump’s proposal&comma; and as the field conditions for the exchange are met&period;” It also said it &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;renews its agreement to hand over the administration of the Gaza Strip to a Palestinian body of independents&comma;” and that this would be based on Palestinian consensus with Arab and Islamic support&period; A senior official&comma; Mousa Abu Marzouk&comma; told Al Jazeera that Hamas was willing to give up &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;any kind of weapons” provided that &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;the occupation ends and the Palestinian control themselves&period;” His condition is clear&period; He added&comma; &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;We do not need the weapons if there is no occupation&period;”<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<h4 class&equals;"wp-block-heading">Where the answers are fuzzy<&sol;h4>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">Important parts of the plan remain unanswered by Hamas&period; The statement did not address disarmament&comma; which is central to the plan and a key demand from Israel&period; It did not say whether Hamas accepts the idea that it will &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;not have any role in the governance of Gaza&comma; directly&comma; indirectly&comma; or in any form&period;” The phrase &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;field conditions” is vague and gives the group room to delay&period; Hamas also said that issues about the future of Gaza and Palestinian rights would be decided later &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;within a national framework&period;” That is not a clear yes&period; It is a promise to talk&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<h4 class&equals;"wp-block-heading">What Netanyahu is saying and doing<&sol;h4>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed the opening on hostages but kept Israel’s larger goals in place&period; He said Israel is preparing to act right away on Phase One &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;for the immediate release of all the hostages” and will work &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;in full cooperation with the President and his team in order to bring the war to an end in accordance with the principles set forth by Israel&period;” He has also repeated his opposition to a Palestinian state&comma; stating&comma; &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;It is not written in the agreement&period; We said we would strongly oppose a Palestinian state&period;” Israeli media report that members of his right-wing coalition remain skeptical and want proof of disarmament before any concessions&period; The Israel Defense Forces said the chief of the general staff ordered the military to advance readiness for the first phase while protecting Israeli forces&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<h4 class&equals;"wp-block-heading">Trump’s reaction and the clock he set<&sol;h4>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">Trump publicly pushed for speed&period; He posted a message that read&comma; &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;Stop the bombing now so that the hostages can be freed&period;” He later said&comma; &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;Based on the Statement just issued by Hamas&comma; I believe they are ready for a lasting PEACE&period;” He added&comma; &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;Israel must immediately stop the bombing of Gaza&comma; so that we can get the Hostages out safely and quickly&period;” Trump also set a deadline&period; He told Hamas to accept by Sunday at 6 p&period;m&period; Washington time&period; Otherwise&comma; he warned that &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;all hell will break out&period;” In a short video from the Oval Office&comma; he called it &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;a big day” and said&comma; &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;We will see how it all turns out&period; We have to get the final word down in concrete&period;” He thanked Qatar&comma; Saudi Arabia&comma; Jordan&comma; Egypt&comma; Turkey&comma; and &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;so many others” for helping&period; He also said &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;everyone would be treated fairly&period;”<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<h4 class&equals;"wp-block-heading">How other leaders and groups are responding<&sol;h4>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">The Hostages Families Forum said Trump’s demand to stop the war immediately was &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;essential to prevent the serious and irreversible harm to the hostages&period;” They urged Netanyahu to begin &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;efficient and swift negotiations&period;” European leaders spoke with guarded optimism&period; Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer called Hamas’s response a &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;significant step forward” that brought the conflict &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;closer to peace than ever before” and said all sides should &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;implement the agreement without delay&period;” France’s President Emmanuel Macron said &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;the release of all hostages and a cease-fire in Gaza are within reach” and added that &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;Hamas’ commitment must be followed up without delay&period;” Regional mediators welcomed the movement&period; Qatar said it is working with Egypt and the United States to &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;complete discussions on the plan to ensure an end to the war&period;” Egypt said Hamas’s response showed &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;keenness” to stop the bloodshed and protect civilians&period; A Hamas adviser told the BBC that Trump’s statements are &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;encouraging&comma;” and said the group is ready to negotiate immediately to achieve a prisoner exchange&comma; end the war&comma; and secure an Israeli withdrawal&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<h4 class&equals;"wp-block-heading">What critics and skeptics say about follow-through<&sol;h4>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">Voices in Washington and Jerusalem are divided&period; Senator Lindsey Graham warned that the lack of disarmament&comma; the insistence on Palestinian control in Gaza&comma; and tying hostage release to negotiations are not a breakthrough&period; He said these moves amount to rejecting a take it or leave it offer&period; Former U&period;S&period; ambassador Daniel Kurtzer said Trump chose to highlight what Hamas embraced and shift pressure onto Israel&period; &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;Everything else&comma; Trump can ignore&comma;” he said&comma; predicting the president would tell Netanyahu to proceed&period; A senior Arab diplomat called the response &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;positive&comma;” saying Hamas had no choice&period; A former Western diplomat said&comma; &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;This may be the beginning of the end&comma; but there is still more work to do&period; Hamas has not accepted key elements of the plan nor the timeframe for hostage releases&period;” That diplomat added&comma; &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;We either see hostages coming out this week or the war will restart&period;”<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">If implemented&comma; the first 72 hours matter most&period; Hostages would come out&period; Hundreds of Palestinian prisoners would be released&period; Remains would be exchanged&period; Aid would enter immediately&period; Reuters reported that regional players like Egypt and Qatar support the effort while Iran opposes it&period; The BBC said Palestinian Authority leaders are wary of a deal that elevates a technocratic body in Gaza&comma; since it may sideline them&period; Inside Israel&comma; opposition leader Yair Lapid said there is a &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;genuine opportunity” to end the war and offered political backing if Netanyahu moves ahead&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<h4 class&equals;"wp-block-heading">The pattern that worries everyone<&sol;h4>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">Families of hostages speak of &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;very cautious hope&period;” One mother said Hamas’s response is &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;evasive” and feels like &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;they say yes&comma; but add a but&period;” That is the core concern&period; Hamas often keeps its choices open&period; It now says it will release hostages&comma; stop governing&comma; and even talks about giving up weapons&comma; but only if conditions it defines are met&period; The group did not commit to disarm&period; It did not ban itself from Gaza’s politics&period; It did not define the field conditions that trigger the exchange&period; Each gap is a place to stall&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph">There is a narrow path to free hostages and pause the fighting&period; Netanyahu says Israel will move on Phase One&period; Trump set a deadline and is pressing both sides&period; Mediators are engaged&period; Yet the odds of Hamas accepting and keeping the full agreement are low given the record&period; The plan demands clear steps&period; Hamas’s answers are not yet clear&period; Until weapons are verifiably beyond use and a real technocratic transfer begins&comma; this looks like another moment where promises are loud&comma; timelines are short&comma; and history tells us to be skeptical&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;&NewLine;<p class&equals;"wp-block-paragraph"><strong>PB Editor&colon; <&sol;strong>Everyone has to prepare for Hamas to accept&comma; but they are doing the same thing they always to&period; They are jerking us around and trying to get more&period; This is not an agreement by any means and we predict that Israel will be begin attacks again within the next few days&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;

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