Is Trump ready to take on Putin?  We can only hope

In recent days, President Trump has taken a dramatically different tone regarding the war in Ukraine.  While he still wants a peace agreement – and he still wants to save thousands of lives – he seems to finally recognize that Russian madman Vladimir Putin is not of the same frame of mind.

In a recent interview, Trump took an unusually hard line in terms of Russia.  He said Russia had to withdraw from all of Ukraine.  When asked if he was excluding the regions currently under Russian occupation, he emphasized “all” of Ukraine.  One can only hope he meant it and will make defeating Putin his goal.

Putin is not winning the war.  Virtually all of his offensive actions over three years have failed to gain any new ground.  The Russian casualty count is approaching 1 million dead and wounded – and the casualty rate is not improving.  The UK Ministry of Defence reported that in April 2025, the Russian casualty rate was running at 1,200 per day – or approximately 36,000 for April alone.  In the first four months of 2025, Russia suffered 160,000 casualties 

In addition to the battleground losses, Russia has been hemorrhaging young military age men and women.  It is estimated that between one and two million young men and women have fled Mother Russia.  This is seen in the record number of young Russians seeking asylum in Western nations – including Great Britain and the United States. Russia is also suffering from a high number of defectors.  The “I Want to Live” hotline – that assists defectors – has received thousands of inquiries – and aided in the defections of hundreds.

The manpower problem is the reason Putin had to recruit North Korean soldiers.  The initial 14,000 soldiers sent by President Kim Jong Un have had to be supplemented by an additional 3000 fighters – after up to 5000 have been killed, wounded or captured.

The Russian war machine is in shambles.  Since the start of the war, Ukrainian forces have destroyed almost 11,000 Russian tanks.  Ukrainians have hit critical military facilities and seized land inside Russia, and have sunk several of Russia’s most important ships (including flag flagship “Moscow”). 

The war has also put a strain on the Russian economy.  The Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics reports that Russia’s fiscal reserves are depleting rapidly — and could run out within a year, forcing the government to print more money, which would trigger inflation and a weakened ruble.  The ruble has already lost half its value against the U.S. dollar and the European euro – making imports more expensive and reducing the purchasing power of the Russian consumer.

After contracting by more than 2 percent in 2022, the Russian economy has had modest growth in 2023 and 2024 – largely due to massive increases in military spending.  The long-term outlook for Russian economic growth has been described as “bleak”.

Russia’s major banks have been removed from SWIFT, the international financial messaging system – severely limiting Russia’s ability to carry out global transactions.

Then there is the all-important oil. Falling oil prices have caused Russia to slash its energy revenue forecast by 44 percent. Russia’s prime Urals crude has dropped to $50 a barrel – far below earlier estimates.   Russia’s estimate of $134 billion gas and oil revenue for 2025 has be downgraded to $102 billion – a reduction of more than $30 billion.  As a result, the Russian budget deficit has tripled from 0.5 percent to 1.7 percent of GDP.

A number of NATO nations are increasing their support for Ukraine. Sweden has provided more than 70 billion SEK and intends to increase its support.  Sweden is part of the Nordic-Baltic 8, which includes Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway and Sweden.  Combined, they have contributed 26 billion euros to the war effort.

Despite his weak position, Putin is taking actions that suggest a future threat to NATO nations.  He is expanding Russian military presence along the Finnish and Norwegian borders – and has established a major military headquarters 100 miles from the Finnish border.  Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) issued a report claiming that Putin is preparing for a future attack on NATO.  The Lithuanian intelligence service sees Russia initially attacking one NATO nation to test the resolve of the alliance.

While Putin maintains his rhetoric of defiance and ambition – and use the nuclear card to intimidate — the realities on the ground tell a different story.  Russia is bleeding resources, troops, and geopolitical standing with no clear path to victory.  The war is at a tipping point, and we should not walk away from a total Ukrainian victory just because Putin talks tough.

Russia poses a future threat to Europe and is in a weakened position at the moment.  That is why this is the perfect time to address both those issues.  We should not give in to Putin’s bluffs and bully rhetoric. 

So, there ‘tis.