Having posed the headline question, readers may assume that I have an answer to the question – or at least an informed opinion. I do not. The only difference between me and so many on the giddy left is that I see the possibility of Vice President Harris being a flash in the pan.
Harris’ political honeymoon should come as no surprise. Of course, she would do better than Biden – an 81-year-old mentally compromised President with a litany of unpopular policies. Harris doing better was the foregone conclusion. And of course, she would enjoy a period of euphoria – a political honeymoon — less the result of her ascension and more about Biden’s withdrawal.
But the over-the-top praise and body-trembling excitement is hyperbole on the part of those who actually believe that Harris is some sort of super candidate who is “faster than a speeding bullet … more powerful than a locomotive … able to leap tall buildings in a single bound.”
The good news for Harris is that her numbers are better than Biden’s. She has crept up on Trump by a point or two. The bad news for Harris is that despite all the upbeat rhetoric from the media cheerleaders, she has only moved up a couple of percentage points.
As I pointed out in a previous commentary … with 80 to 90 percent of the likely voters having already made up their minds, the pool of available voters for Harris to attract is very small.
If tradition holds, Harris should get another small bump when she names her vice presidential choice and again following the Democratic National Convention. After that, it is a race to the finish line.
The one question unanswered is whether Harris has real momentum or is just a flash in the pan. We saw that when she entered the presidential race last time. She attracted a lot of attention – and a lot of fawning media praise – but she crashed and burned upon launch.
Some national polls will fuel Harris’ optimism. She will come within a fraction of a percent of Trump – and in some cases, a point ahead. That is good for your morale but it is the battleground states that will make all the difference. At this junction, Trump still has a better path to the 270 electoral votes that decide the winner – but it is less of a slam dunk now.
Harris cannot beat Trump on the critical issues – but Trump can beat Trump. He is often his own worst enemy. The only safe observation that can be made is that the race is closer than it was when Biden was the candidate. So, there ‘ti