
<p>Most polls put President Biden behind President Trump on a number of key policy issues – such as immigration, crime and even handling the economy. ; I have opined in the past that not enough consideration is given to two non-policy issues that may have the greatest impact on voters – Biden’s mental acuity and Vice President Harris.</p>



<p>I think both of those issues could be fatal to a Biden second term – individually and even more so in combination. ; Biden cannot do anything about the age issue apart from avoiding falls and senior moments – or something worse. ;</p>



<p>He could dump Harris, which I have said in a previous commentary would help him shake up his floundering campaign. ; In fact, Biden’s numbers are so bad – and hers are even worse &#8212; that I think he will have to select a new running mate. Stay tuned on that one.</p>



<p>BUT &#8230; there is yet another potential barrier to Biden’s reelection, in my judgment. ; It is Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who has sufficient name recognition and stature to go by his initials, RFK, Jr.</p>



<p>At the time RFK, Jr. entered the race he was flipped off as a gadfly candidate who was politically excommunicated from the leftwing Kennedy political clan. ; Despite a barrage of negative reporting from the leftwing media, Kennedy became a credible dark horse candidate with approximately 20 percent voter support.</p>



<p>RFK, Jr. had more support on the Democrat side than did Florida Governor Ron DeSantis against Trump at the time. ; Still, the media considered DeSantis credible and RFK, Jr. not so. ; As the campaign season progressed, it became increasingly obvious that neither DeSantis nor RFK, Jr. were going to succeed in their quest for their party’s presidential nominations. ; DeSantis dropped out and RFK, Jr. transitioned to an independent candidacy.</p>



<p>Despite the negative coverage of RFK, Jr. – fluctuating between demonizing and ignoring him – the son of the late New York Senator and Attorney General has maintained a base somewhere between 15 and 20 percent. ; That is not enough to win many electors in the November General Election, but enough to affect the outcome of the race between Biden and Trump.</p>



<p>Polls show that RFK. Jr. draws support from disaffected voters on both sides. ; BUT &#8230; he takes away more from Biden than Trump.</p>



<p>It is important to note that RFK, Jr. is not a Joe Manchin, who chose not to run as a third option because he would have been a spoiler – taking votes from Biden and handing the election to Trump. ; Manchin does not want Trump to win the election. ;</p>



<p>RFK, Jr. seems to be less concerned about that. ; His lack of concern may be because he is also running against a number of Biden policies.</p>



<p>RFK, Jr. is campaigning vigorously. ; He is having more success in getting on state ballots than many thought possible. ; He has floated the names of a number of potential vice-presidential running mates.</p>



<p>Whether his level of success is based on his personal appeal &#8212; or the general displeasure with the two candidates selected by the major parties – it makes no difference.  ;He is doing as well as any past outsider candidate.</p>



<p>In virtually every poll, when RFK, Jr. is factored into the contest, Biden’s numbers go down. ; In a race that is expected to be very close, the loss of even a few single digit percentage points can prove to be decisive. ; In 2000, Green Party candidate Ralph Nader may have been the reason Al Gore did not carry Florida – and consequently lost the presidency. ; That is assuming Nader’s votes would have gone to Gore.</p>



<p>As I often note. ; Elections are decided on what voters decide to decide upon. In this season, it may be the non-policy issues that drive voter decisions. ; Mental acuity, now and as perceived in the future &#8230; Vice President Harris potentially becoming President (shudder) &#8230; and RFK. Jr. tapping into the overwhelming unpopularity of Biden and Trump as the major party standard bearers &#8230; may trump policy issues as the deciding factor for voters.</p>



<p>And this does not take into consideration a No Labels Party bid – or the presence of Cornell West, Jill Stein and the ever-present Libertarian Party candidate (whoever that is). ; Can any of these folks actually win the presidency? ; Not likely. ;</p>



<p>Although unlikely, it is more possible that RFK, Jr. could win a few delegates in states that do not have the winner-take-all method. ; It is possible that an RFK. Jr. few delegates would make it impossible for either Biden or Trump to get the 270 electoral votes minimum requirement.</p>



<p>If neither reaches the minimum, the election goes to the House of Representatives, with each state having one vote. ; If the delegations vote along party lines, Trump wins easily. ; That is because Democrat voters are piled up in a few very large states, while Republicans in the House dominate in the greatest number of states.</p>



<p>But it can be said that if an outrigger third candidacy cannot succeed this year – based on the unprecedented unpopularity of Biden and Trump – it never will. ; And “never will” is probably the correct answer. ; But more than ever, those “other” candidates may have greater influence on the outcome of the election than ever.</p>



<p>If you want to get the most accurate information from polling, focus on polls of “registered” voters in battleground states that include the third-party candidates in the survey. ; And look at that in terms of overall electoral vote count. ; Currently, Trump is winning with that analysis – outside most margins of error. ; That is what is having Team Biden sweating – and doing everything possible to get RFK, Jr. off the ballots and out of the news.</p>



<p>So, there ‘tis.</p>

Is RFK ,Jr the coup de grace for the Biden campaign?
