Most polls put President Biden behind President Trump on a number of key policy issues – such as immigration, crime and even handling the economy. I have opined in the past that not enough consideration is given to two non-policy issues that may have the greatest impact on voters – Biden’s mental acuity and Vice President Harris.
I think both of those issues could be fatal to a Biden second term – individually and even more so in combination. Biden cannot do anything about the age issue apart from avoiding falls and senior moments – or something worse.
He could dump Harris, which I have said in a previous commentary would help him shake up his floundering campaign. In fact, Biden’s numbers are so bad – and hers are even worse — that I think he will have to select a new running mate. Stay tuned on that one.
BUT … there is yet another potential barrier to Biden’s reelection, in my judgment. It is Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who has sufficient name recognition and stature to go by his initials, RFK, Jr.
At the time RFK, Jr. entered the race he was flipped off as a gadfly candidate who was politically excommunicated from the leftwing Kennedy political clan. Despite a barrage of negative reporting from the leftwing media, Kennedy became a credible dark horse candidate with approximately 20 percent voter support.
RFK, Jr. had more support on the Democrat side than did Florida Governor Ron DeSantis against Trump at the time. Still, the media considered DeSantis credible and RFK, Jr. not so. As the campaign season progressed, it became increasingly obvious that neither DeSantis nor RFK, Jr. were going to succeed in their quest for their party’s presidential nominations. DeSantis dropped out and RFK, Jr. transitioned to an independent candidacy.
Despite the negative coverage of RFK, Jr. – fluctuating between demonizing and ignoring him – the son of the late New York Senator and Attorney General has maintained a base somewhere between 15 and 20 percent. That is not enough to win many electors in the November General Election, but enough to affect the outcome of the race between Biden and Trump.
Polls show that RFK. Jr. draws support from disaffected voters on both sides. BUT … he takes away more from Biden than Trump.
It is important to note that RFK, Jr. is not a Joe Manchin, who chose not to run as a third option because he would have been a spoiler – taking votes from Biden and handing the election to Trump. Manchin does not want Trump to win the election.
RFK, Jr. seems to be less concerned about that. His lack of concern may be because he is also running against a number of Biden policies.
RFK, Jr. is campaigning vigorously. He is having more success in getting on state ballots than many thought possible. He has floated the names of a number of potential vice-presidential running mates.
Whether his level of success is based on his personal appeal — or the general displeasure with the two candidates selected by the major parties – it makes no difference. He is doing as well as any past outsider candidate.
In virtually every poll, when RFK, Jr. is factored into the contest, Biden’s numbers go down. In a race that is expected to be very close, the loss of even a few single digit percentage points can prove to be decisive. In 2000, Green Party candidate Ralph Nader may have been the reason Al Gore did not carry Florida – and consequently lost the presidency. That is assuming Nader’s votes would have gone to Gore.
As I often note. Elections are decided on what voters decide to decide upon. In this season, it may be the non-policy issues that drive voter decisions. Mental acuity, now and as perceived in the future … Vice President Harris potentially becoming President (shudder) … and RFK. Jr. tapping into the overwhelming unpopularity of Biden and Trump as the major party standard bearers … may trump policy issues as the deciding factor for voters.
And this does not take into consideration a No Labels Party bid – or the presence of Cornell West, Jill Stein and the ever-present Libertarian Party candidate (whoever that is). Can any of these folks actually win the presidency? Not likely.
Although unlikely, it is more possible that RFK, Jr. could win a few delegates in states that do not have the winner-take-all method. It is possible that an RFK. Jr. few delegates would make it impossible for either Biden or Trump to get the 270 electoral votes minimum requirement.
If neither reaches the minimum, the election goes to the House of Representatives, with each state having one vote. If the delegations vote along party lines, Trump wins easily. That is because Democrat voters are piled up in a few very large states, while Republicans in the House dominate in the greatest number of states.
But it can be said that if an outrigger third candidacy cannot succeed this year – based on the unprecedented unpopularity of Biden and Trump – it never will. And “never will” is probably the correct answer. But more than ever, those “other” candidates may have greater influence on the outcome of the election than ever.
If you want to get the most accurate information from polling, focus on polls of “registered” voters in battleground states that include the third-party candidates in the survey. And look at that in terms of overall electoral vote count. Currently, Trump is winning with that analysis – outside most margins of error. That is what is having Team Biden sweating – and doing everything possible to get RFK, Jr. off the ballots and out of the news.
So, there ‘tis.