Evidence of a US-Russia Thaw
Recent developments suggest that relations between the United States and Russia may be on the path to improvement. Under President Donald Trump’s second administration, Washington has begun shifting its approach toward Moscow, signaling a potential realignment in global power dynamics. The Kremlin has acknowledged this shift, with spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stating that while the road to better relations is long and difficult, both sides have expressed the political will to pursue it.
“We are at the initial stage of the path to restoring our bilateral relations. The road ahead is quite long and difficult, but at least the two presidents have expressed political will in this direction,” Peskov told reporters in early March 2025.
This changing dynamic is evident in recent U.S. actions at the United Nations, where Washington has twice sided with Moscow in votes concerning Ukraine. Additionally, high-level U.S.-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia have hinted at deeper geopolitical cooperation. Even more striking, discussions within the Trump administration have reportedly explored a radical defense spending reduction deal that could involve both Russia and China. According to reports, Putin himself acknowledged these talks, stating that he was ready to discuss a suggestion from Trump that Washington, Moscow, and Beijing could cut defense spending by 50%. “The US and Russia could make the cuts and ‘China would join if it wanted,’” Putin was quoted as saying.
If this trajectory continues, the long-standing hostility between Washington and Moscow may evolve into something closer to pragmatic cooperation. This development has profound implications—not just for U.S.-Russia relations but also for the global order, particularly for China, which has positioned itself as Russia’s closest strategic partner in recent years.
Fractures in the Russia-China Relationship
While Russia and China have touted their relationship as a “no-limits partnership,” cracks are beginning to show. Economic tensions, military technology disputes, and strategic divergences are straining the relationship, potentially making Moscow more receptive to improving ties with the West.
One of the biggest friction points is Russia’s overreliance on the Chinese yuan. In response to Western sanctions, Moscow pivoted to the yuan for trade and financial transactions. Initially, this seemed like a mutually beneficial arrangement—Russia gained access to a stable foreign currency, while China strengthened the yuan’s role in global finance. However, Russian banks have recently encountered a liquidity crisis, as Chinese banks, wary of U.S. secondary sanctions, have become reluctant to transfer yuan to Russian institutions.
“We cannot lend in yuan because we have nothing to cover our foreign currency positions with,” German Gref, CEO of Russia’s Sberbank, admitted at a recent economic forum. The growing reluctance of Chinese banks to facilitate transactions has left Russian companies struggling to maintain operations. A recent report from the Russian central bank found that a quarter of Russian exporters faced problems with foreign transactions, with nearly half of them saying the situation was worsening.
Another major source of tension is China’s interest in Russian submarine technology. Despite the public displays of friendship between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, Russia has been hesitant to share its most advanced military capabilities. Moscow recognizes that China is rapidly building its naval power and sees Beijing’s technological ambitions as a potential long-term threat. U.S. intelligence suggests that China is actively seeking Russian stealth submarine technology, which, if acquired, could significantly enhance Beijing’s maritime dominance in the Pacific.
Admiral Samuel Paparo of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command warned that Russia could be on the verge of transferring this expertise to China. “Russia is uniquely positioned to provide submarine technology to the PRC that has the potential of closing American undersea dominance,” he said. However, Russia’s reluctance to fully commit to such a transfer highlights a level of strategic distrust between Moscow and Beijing.
The Western Alliance vs. China’s Sphere
One of the fundamental strengths of the Western alliance is its foundation in democracy, shared economic values, and deep-rooted historical ties. The United States, the European Union, Japan, and other allies maintain strong partnerships not just for strategic convenience but because they share common governing principles and market-driven economies. These connections have endured through political changes, military conflicts, and economic crises, reinforcing a level of trust that is difficult to replicate.
By contrast, China’s sphere of influence is largely built on opposition to the West rather than on a shared ideology or system of governance. Beijing’s closest partners, Russia, North Korea, Iran, are bound together not by common democratic values but by their collective resistance to U.S. global leadership. This distinction makes China’s alliances more fragile and prone to shifts, especially when economic interests or national security concerns start to diverge.
The potential warming of U.S.-Russia relations further complicates this picture. If Moscow finds itself with more diplomatic and economic options, it may no longer feel the need to lean so heavily on China. Already, some Russian strategists are questioning whether their country’s reliance on Beijing has been a strategic mistake. If Washington offers incentives—whether in the form of sanctions relief, security guarantees, or economic partnerships—Russia may seek to rebalance its relationships, reducing its dependence on China in the process.
Implications for Global Power Dynamics
If U.S.-Russia relations continue to improve, it could significantly disrupt China’s long-term strategic goals. Beijing has relied on Russia not just for energy and raw materials but also for military cooperation and geopolitical backing. A closer U.S.-Russia relationship could diminish China’s ability to leverage Moscow’s support in international disputes, particularly in areas like the South China Sea and Taiwan.
One of the most immediate areas where this shift could have an impact is the Arctic. China has aggressively pursued its “Polar Silk Road” ambitions, aiming to expand its influence in the Arctic despite having no territorial claims there. Russia, which controls the largest portion of the Arctic coastline, has been a crucial partner in granting Beijing access to this strategically vital region. However, if Moscow recalibrates its foreign policy and seeks closer ties with Washington, China could find itself increasingly excluded from Arctic development projects and security dialogues.
Moreover, the U.S.-Europe relationship stands to be affected by a stronger Washington-Moscow dynamic. European leaders have already voiced concerns that Trump’s pivot toward Russia could weaken transatlantic ties. “The idea of driving wedges between these two is fanciful,” Australia’s Director-General of National Intelligence, Andrew Shearer, said, suggesting that Europe will not easily abandon its partnership with the U.S. However, he also noted that if America’s priorities shift too far toward Russia, European leaders may reconsider their own geopolitical strategies.
Russia’s Expanding Options
For Russia, the emergence of a viable alternative to total dependence on China is a strategic advantage. By keeping multiple diplomatic channels open, whether with China, the U.S., or even a more independent Europe – Moscow gains leverage and flexibility in global affairs. While China has long positioned itself as Russia’s indispensable ally, it is becoming clear that the partnership is far from an ideal marriage.
With growing economic strains, military technology disputes, and strategic concerns about long-term dependence on Beijing, Russia may be looking for an off-ramp. If the U.S. is willing to offer one, it could mark a major geopolitical shift – one that would leave China in a far more precarious position than it anticipated.
PB Editor: If Trump does indeed pursue this strategy it is brilliant. The biggest security threat to the U.S. is the ability of China to build alliances with powerful nations. A distancing of Russia would be a major blow to China. For Russia, it would be a step toward greater prosperity and perhaps even toward Democracy.