
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">West Virginia’s Democrat Senator Joe Manchin is again giving Democrats apoplexy – especially folks in the White House. ; With only a two-vote margin in the Senate – and Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema ;looking at an independent run in 2024 – Senate Majority leader Chuck Schumer and other Democrat leaders can only grin sheepishly as Manchin strikes is own political path. Manchin is the maverick within a herd of sheep. ; Democrats may not like his failure to toe the party line, but they cannot afford to speak ill of him.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Manchin acts peculiarly because he is a peculiarity. ; He is a Democrat who has continued to win in a state that is overwhelmingly Republican. ; It is also one of the most Trump states in America. ; If Trump is the GOP standard bearer, West Virginia will be a safe state for the former President – and conversely, not so safe for Manchin despite his past election victories.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">If Manchin runs or not, his seat will be one of the most likely pick-ups for the Republicans. ; Most political observers do not believe that he can win reelection. ; So, what does Manchin do?</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">He could dig in his heels and go for reelection despite the long odds. ; He could switch parties, but that would not guarantee him the Republican nomination. ; He could retire from politics – although that does not seem to be under serious consideration at this moment. ; Or… he could run under a third-party label &#8212; or no label. ; And there just happens to be a group with that name actively seeking candidates to challenge the two major parties.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The political acrimony between Republicans and Democrats that has infected the partisan political process – and the overall unpopularity of the current leading candidates for President &#8212; has led to the rise of a well-funded outrigger group called “No Labels.” ; That is a bit of a misnomer since the group is trying to recruit a Republican and a Democrat to run as a bipartisan team.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Pouring more fuel on the speculation of a third-party run, Manchin appeared as a major speaker at a forum sponsored by No Labels in New Hampshire – an important primary state. ; He appeared alongside Utah’s former Republican Governor Jon Huntsman. ; Both men were coy about their own intentions but did not discount the possibility of running on the No Labels label.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">No Labels has promised to present a “common sense” platform in opposition to what its leaders claim to be the excessive partisan political pugilism between Republicans and Democrats – especially between the Biden and Trump camps. ; ;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In explaining his appearance at the No Labels forum, Manchin said that his it had nothing to do with a third-party run for President. ; He simply wants to promote “dialogue for common sense.” ; Does that mean Manchin was not interested in being a third-party candidate? ; To that point, he said that he has “never ruled out anything or ruled in anything.” ; When asked further if his candidacy would hurt Biden’s chances for reelection, Manchin punted.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">With only a one-vote margin in the previous session of the Senate, Marchin was able to make his more moderate views the thumb on Biden’s legislative scale. ; He forced Biden to scale back his spending proposals.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Manchin’s influence has diminished in the current Senate session because Republican control of the House. ; That means that all of Biden’s grandiose legislative proposals are dead on arrival. ; Manchin is no longer needed as blocker. ; All Biden can do in these times is jawbone his reckless spending platform of something for everyone with little hope of getting anything passed.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">That still leaves Manchin enormous political power and influence in terms of the 2024 presidential election, however. ; Manchin must know that if he mounts a third-party bid, Biden’s chance for reelection drops close to zero – even against the much-dreaded Donald Trump. That is true even in the fact of recent polls suggesting that a third-party candidacy will actually hurt Trump more than Biden. ; (I will go deeper into those weeds in a future commentary).</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Former Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney has hinted at a run for President with the sole goal of preventing Trump from returning to the Oval Office.  ; If she ran in the GOP primaries, she would get crushed. ; And if she ran as an independent or the No Labels candidate, she is still more likely to take anti-Trump Republicans away from Biden.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">According to MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough, the ONLY objective of No Labels is to defeat Trump. ; If that were true – and Scarborough’s analyses are more often wrong than right – they would not be recruiting Manchin. ; In fact, they would not put up a candidate at all.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The more interesting question is why would Manchin want to help Trump or any GOP presidential candidate defeat Joe Biden &#8212; if the old guy sustains as the likely Democrat candidate?</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">One possible reason is that Manchin does not believe in the Democrats radical left policies. ; Personalities notwithstanding, Manchin’s political philosophy is closer to the GOP than the current Democratic Party on almost every issue.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Or … Manchin may be dangling out a third-party bid to get a few concessions – such as no completion in his primary election in West Virginia. ; Congressional Democrats on the far left have already suggested an opponent on Manchin’s left. ; He could be bargaining for financial support from Democrat political funds – such as the Democrat Senate Campaign Committee or the Democratic National Committee.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Manchin will be one of the most interesting political sideshows in the days ahead. ; The only thing that seems clear at this point is that Manchin will keep open the possibility of a third-party run – and will have team Biden on edge for the next several months.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">So, there ‘tis.</p>

Is Manchin Serious About a Third Party Run?
