
<p>I posed the hypothetical headline question after seeing a headline in a Bloomberg News article that read, “Trump’s Favorability Rating Reaches the Highest Since 2022.”</p>



<p>The story was about the results of the latest RealClearPolitics polling average. ; It shows that 42 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of President Trump – from a low of 36 percent in December of 2022 – compared to 40 percent for Biden.</p>



<p>But this was not an outlier or a single poll. And it is not just about favorability ratings.</p>



<p>In a head-to-head contest, the recent Harvard CAPS-Harris poll shows Trump with a 6-point lead – 48 to 42 percent. ; Even if convicted in the Fulton County case, Trump still wins 52 to 48 percent. ; And amazingly, if he is convicted in the January 6th case, Trump extends his lead to 8-points – 54 to 46 percent.</p>



<p>(You can see how such news would have the hair of leftwingers ablaze in traumatic disbelief.)</p>



<p>The widest spread in favorability rating for Biden –according to RealClearPolitics &#8212; was in 2021 when Trump fell to 36 percent, and Biden reached an all-time high of 54 percent favorability. ; Biden dropped precipitously in 2021. ; Many attribute the sharp decline in Biden’s favorability rating to the bungled handling of the surrender in Afghanistan. If not causal, it was coincidental? ; And if not Afghanistan, then what?</p>



<p>For most of 2024, Trump has enjoyed better favorability ratings than Biden – by increasingly wider margins. ; While the 2-point margin favoring Trump in the RealClearPolitics is still fairly close – and within the margins of errors of the various polls computed in the RealClearPolitics average – it is remarkable since it comes at a time when Trump is deeply burdened by a series of legal cases – civil and criminal. ;</p>



<p>And he has already lost a couple.</p>



<p>He was ordered to pay E. Jean Carroll more than $80 million for defaming her a second time. ; That came on top of the $5 million he had to pay after being held libel in the earlier battery/defamation case. In the New York fraud case, Trump was ordered to pay $450 million (accruing interest at $114,000 a day) – and to cease doing business in New York for three years. ; The New York attorney general who brought the case has threatened to immediately start seizing Trump’s properties to satisfy the judgment. ; Trump is appealing the case.</p>



<p>Still in process are the criminal RICO case being pursued in Fulton County, Georgia &#8230; the campaign finance case in New York City &#8230; the documents and the January 6th cases being handled by Special Counsel Jack Smith &#8230; and a few sundry civil cases.</p>



<p>Despite all that, Trump has been improving his favorability numbers over Biden – and beating Biden in most head-to-head polling. ; Even worse for Biden is that he is losing to Trump in all the key battleground states with the exception of Wisconsin.</p>



<p>Over the past year, it seems the worse news that descends on Trump, the better he does. ; He has not only survived what would have traditionally been mortal political wounds, he has flourished under them. ; It seems that each new bit of “bad” news results in an uptick in Trump’s overall ratings – and an improvement in those head-to-head contest questions.</p>



<p>The New York corporate fraud verdict and penalty is a case-in-point. ; Trump has been ordered to pay by far the biggest fine in history compared to similar cases. ; And that may be why Trump has shot up in the standings again.</p>



<p>Many legal analysts, – even some Trump critics – believe that Judge Arthur Engoron was biased in his decisions and extremely vicious in his imposition of fines – not to mention closing the Trump business in New York. ; ; ; Only an avid Trump-hater without respect for a concept of equal justice would have seen Engoron’s penalty as fair and just. ; In fact, a lot of folks think the entire case was based on persecution rather than prosecution.</p>



<p>Consequently, Trump gains some measure of public sympathy – and that appears to translate into improved favorability ratings.</p>



<p>This is neither a unique nor undocumented opinion. ; In June of 2023, the Quinnipiac University Poll showed that 62 percent of Americans believe that the Documents Case against Trump is politically motivated. ; About the same time, a Reuters/Ipsos Poll indicated that 50 percent of Americans believe the legal cases against Trump are generally politically motivated. ; Interestingly, Black, Hispanic, and younger voters tend to believe the charges against Trump are politically motivated.</p>



<p>I do not make note of the relationship between bad news and Trump gains because I support him. ; I have consistently indicated my preference for a different GOP standard bearer. ; ; However, I see the situation as a newsworthy topic. ; I can understand the frustration and angst of those on the left over Trump’s ability to rise like a Phoenix out of the ashes of controversy. ; ; While I am as amazed as the next person, it just does not set my hair on fire. ;</p>



<p>The real issue is how much of Biden’s problem is due to his performance and policies, and how much is the issue of age and mental acuity. ; The latter is of growing concern among Democrats – who are mounting pressure on Biden to withdraw from the race. ; More about that in a future commentary.</p>



<p>It is too early to know how this will play out in November. ; There will undoubtedly be a lot more bumps on this particularly bumpy road to Election Day 2024.</p>



<p>So, there ‘tis.</p>

Is it National Leftwing Hair on Fire Month?
