I posed the hypothetical headline question after seeing a headline in a Bloomberg News article that read, “Trump’s Favorability Rating Reaches the Highest Since 2022.”
The story was about the results of the latest RealClearPolitics polling average. It shows that 42 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of President Trump – from a low of 36 percent in December of 2022 – compared to 40 percent for Biden.
But this was not an outlier or a single poll. And it is not just about favorability ratings.
In a head-to-head contest, the recent Harvard CAPS-Harris poll shows Trump with a 6-point lead – 48 to 42 percent. Even if convicted in the Fulton County case, Trump still wins 52 to 48 percent. And amazingly, if he is convicted in the January 6th case, Trump extends his lead to 8-points – 54 to 46 percent.
(You can see how such news would have the hair of leftwingers ablaze in traumatic disbelief.)
The widest spread in favorability rating for Biden –according to RealClearPolitics — was in 2021 when Trump fell to 36 percent, and Biden reached an all-time high of 54 percent favorability. Biden dropped precipitously in 2021. Many attribute the sharp decline in Biden’s favorability rating to the bungled handling of the surrender in Afghanistan. If not causal, it was coincidental? And if not Afghanistan, then what?
For most of 2024, Trump has enjoyed better favorability ratings than Biden – by increasingly wider margins. While the 2-point margin favoring Trump in the RealClearPolitics is still fairly close – and within the margins of errors of the various polls computed in the RealClearPolitics average – it is remarkable since it comes at a time when Trump is deeply burdened by a series of legal cases – civil and criminal.
And he has already lost a couple.
He was ordered to pay E. Jean Carroll more than $80 million for defaming her a second time. That came on top of the $5 million he had to pay after being held libel in the earlier battery/defamation case. In the New York fraud case, Trump was ordered to pay $450 million (accruing interest at $114,000 a day) – and to cease doing business in New York for three years. The New York attorney general who brought the case has threatened to immediately start seizing Trump’s properties to satisfy the judgment. Trump is appealing the case.
Still in process are the criminal RICO case being pursued in Fulton County, Georgia … the campaign finance case in New York City … the documents and the January 6th cases being handled by Special Counsel Jack Smith … and a few sundry civil cases.
Despite all that, Trump has been improving his favorability numbers over Biden – and beating Biden in most head-to-head polling. Even worse for Biden is that he is losing to Trump in all the key battleground states with the exception of Wisconsin.
Over the past year, it seems the worse news that descends on Trump, the better he does. He has not only survived what would have traditionally been mortal political wounds, he has flourished under them. It seems that each new bit of “bad” news results in an uptick in Trump’s overall ratings – and an improvement in those head-to-head contest questions.
The New York corporate fraud verdict and penalty is a case-in-point. Trump has been ordered to pay by far the biggest fine in history compared to similar cases. And that may be why Trump has shot up in the standings again.
Many legal analysts, – even some Trump critics – believe that Judge Arthur Engoron was biased in his decisions and extremely vicious in his imposition of fines – not to mention closing the Trump business in New York. Only an avid Trump-hater without respect for a concept of equal justice would have seen Engoron’s penalty as fair and just. In fact, a lot of folks think the entire case was based on persecution rather than prosecution.
Consequently, Trump gains some measure of public sympathy – and that appears to translate into improved favorability ratings.
This is neither a unique nor undocumented opinion. In June of 2023, the Quinnipiac University Poll showed that 62 percent of Americans believe that the Documents Case against Trump is politically motivated. About the same time, a Reuters/Ipsos Poll indicated that 50 percent of Americans believe the legal cases against Trump are generally politically motivated. Interestingly, Black, Hispanic, and younger voters tend to believe the charges against Trump are politically motivated.
I do not make note of the relationship between bad news and Trump gains because I support him. I have consistently indicated my preference for a different GOP standard bearer. However, I see the situation as a newsworthy topic. I can understand the frustration and angst of those on the left over Trump’s ability to rise like a Phoenix out of the ashes of controversy. While I am as amazed as the next person, it just does not set my hair on fire.
The real issue is how much of Biden’s problem is due to his performance and policies, and how much is the issue of age and mental acuity. The latter is of growing concern among Democrats – who are mounting pressure on Biden to withdraw from the race. More about that in a future commentary.
It is too early to know how this will play out in November. There will undoubtedly be a lot more bumps on this particularly bumpy road to Election Day 2024.
So, there ‘tis.