
<p>(Editor Note: This commentary was written on the eve of the debate. ; The author ; has indicated that ; one on that topic will follow.)</p>



<p>Shortly after Vice President Harris took Biden’s place as the Democrat standard bearer, she got a LOT of favorable press – and a bump in the polls. The bump was not decisive, but it did give her better numbers than Biden. In some cases, she inched past Trump within the margin of error. That generated a lot of giddy speculation that Harris would be surging past President Trump. For the Democrats, it seemed like “Happy Days Are Here Again” was in an endless loop.</p>



<p>In previous commentaries, I suggested that the celebratory language might be a bit premature. ; Harris has two problems. ; Her past policy positions are too far to the left for the American voters &#8230; and she does not sustain well over the longer haul.</p>



<p>To address the first problem, Harris has created the New Harris – literally reversing her position on major issues, such as now favoring the building a border wall, allowing fracking, not supporting Medicare-for-all and even ending her opposition to plastic straws.</p>



<p>She claimed that these &#8212; and other flip flops &#8212; did not reflect a change in her values. ; Really? ; If there was no change in her values, it can only mean that she has only one core value &#8230; cynical pragmatism.</p>



<p>That was reaffirmed by Vermont’s socialist Senator and Harris booster Bernie Sanders. ; When asked in a CNN interview if the Harris’ reversals mean she is abandoning the progressive policies Sanders’ loves so much. ; He said “no” – and added that Harris is just being pragmatic to win an election.  ;Obviously, Sanders believes that Harris will be back in the progressive fold if she wins the election. ; (Finally, something Sanders and I agree upon.)</p>



<p>Harris’ second problem is sustainability in the long run. ; She has never won a national election – or any election outside of California. ; When she did enter the presidential race in 2020, there was great hope and enthusiasm (sound familiar?), but it quickly faded as folks got to know her better.</p>



<p>She did not win the hearts and minds of the people during her four years as Vice President. ; In fact, her favorable ratings were worse than Biden’s abysmal numbers &#8212; and he could not beat Trump.</p>



<p>We got the first inkling of Harris’ sustainability problem after the Democrat convention &#8212; a show of hope, hype and optimism. Contrary to most pundit predictions – including mine—Harris did not get a bump from the convention festivities. ; That was an ominous sign. ;</p>



<p>There’s another ominous sign. The New York Times polls that show 47 percent of voters think Harris is too liberal, while only 32 percent believe Trump is too conservative. ; It suggests that the remake of Harris as a born-again moderate is not yet working.</p>



<p>On the eve of the presidential debate (the time of this writing), there are more ominous signs. ; Polls generally show Trump closing the minuscule gap that exists between him and Harris – nationally and in the battleground states. The trend in the past couple weeks has been to Trump’s advantage. ; Several of the recent polls show Trump reclaiming the lead in some states.</p>



<p>A month ago, Harris had a comfortable lead (by today’s standards) in Pennsylvania. ; Today it is a dead heat – on the very fulcrum of the margin of error. Quinnipiac University poll now gives Trump a 4-point lead in Georgia. ; The PBS News/NPR/Marist poll shows that Trump is now the choice of independent voters by a 49 to 46 margin</p>



<p>While the shift to Trump is not decisive it is the trend of the moment. Whether that will be changed by the debate is unknown – and will not be known for a week or so after the debate when the dust has settled.</p>



<p>All the shifts are within the narrow band of undecided voters. But small shifts in such a close race can be decisive in terms of who wins. ; It is not a dramatic shift, but if you are Team Harris, you must be worried. ; Is this the beginning of the Harris Fade?</p>



<p>So, there ‘tis.</p>

Is Harris fading?
