
<p>In the early days of the 2024 presidential election, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was looking like the political dragon slayer – with former President Trump being the dragon, of course. ; </p>



<p>In fact, early polls split between a slight plurality for Trump and a slight plurality for DeSantis. ; Neither of them was tracking with more than 50 percent of the Republican primary voters – but, in terms of polling strength, Trump and DeSantis are the only ones that count at this juncture.</p>



<p>But the trend has not been going in DeSantis’ favor. ; Trump’s numbers have tended to move up, and DeSantis&#8217;s numbers down. ; Looking at the recent Morning Consult poll, they had Trump at 45 and DeSantis at 34 in January – an 11-point gap. ; In February, it was 48 percent for Trump and 30 percent for DeSantis – an 18-point gap. ; In early March, Trump moved over the 50 percent mark with 52 percent to DeSantis’ 28 percent – a 24-point gap. ; Later in March, Trump moved up to 54 percent, with DeSantis at 26 – a 28-point separation. ;</p>



<p>Looking at it one way, DeSantis only dropped 6 points over the past two months. ; On the other hand, it is a loss of almost 20 percent of his support</p>



<p>This is consistent with a recent history of frontrunners not doing well in the end. ; Most pundits use that history to evaluate DeSantis’ long-term chances – but they forget that it is Trump who is the early leader. ; What is past may not be prologue this year, however, since we have a very rare situation – a President attempting to seek a second non-consecutive term. ; That only happened once before – and that was Grover Cleveland in 1892.</p>



<p>The question is whether Trump is surging or DeSantis is slipping. ; Based on the Morning Consult poll, Trump seems to have gained more than DeSantis has lost.</p>



<p>Yes, it is much too early in the presidential campaign season to make any well-grounded predictions. ; DeSantis is not yet an official candidate. ; Trump has a gauntlet of sequential legal cases that are the political version of the trials of Hercules.</p>



<p>And as for DeSantis, he does not need to fight for the lead. ; In fact, he should not. A presidential campaign is more like a marathon than a sprint. ; You do not want to claim an early lead that would not be sustainable in the long run.</p>



<p>If DeSantis has a political Achilles Heel, it may be his seeming effort to compete with Trump for the Trump hardcore base – which I estimate to be between 15 to 20 percent of Republican primary voters. ; More about that in a later commentary.</p>



<p>So, there ‘tis.</p>

Is DeSantis Floundering?
