Is China Preparing a Surprise Attack on Japan?

Recent developments in East Asia have raised significant concerns that China might be preparing for a surprise attack on Japan, an operation that could serve as a prelude to an invasion of Taiwan. This is not just a hypothetical scenario but a possibility worth asking about, given the shifts in China’s military strategy and the region’s geopolitical tensions. China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been rapidly expanding its military capabilities, especially its missile forces and surveillance systems. But is China really willing to risk global conflict by launching a preemptive strike on Japan?

Experts like Dan Blumenthal believe this question deserves serious consideration because of how integral Japan is to the U.S. military presence in the region. Blumenthal argues that China may be preparing a surprise attack against Japan as part of a larger strategy to gain control over Taiwan. The logic is simple: in order to launch a successful amphibious invasion of Taiwan, China must first neutralize U.S. and Japanese military power. Since Japan hosts the majority of U.S. forces in the Pacific, it would be a key target.

China’s military doctrine emphasizes the importance of achieving surprise in warfare, especially when conducting large-scale operations like an invasion of Taiwan. The PLA has been developing overwhelming precision strike capabilities, making it possible for them to launch a devastating first strike on Japan. Blumenthal points out that “the PLA boasts the world’s largest arsenal of missiles,” and if China were able to catch the U.S. and Japan off guard, it could potentially disable most of the military installations on the Japanese archipelago. This would give China the upper hand in securing the air and naval supremacy required for a complex amphibious assault on Taiwan.

The evidence for this theory is based on both China’s military actions and its strategic needs. The PLA has been conducting more frequent and larger military drills near Taiwan, often involving amphibious exercises designed to simulate an invasion. These drills have become so frequent that they blur the line between standard training and preparations for an actual attack. In addition to the missile arsenal, China has integrated extensive intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems to guide its precision strikes, giving it the ability to cripple U.S. and Japanese defenses if it decides to act. Analysts like Thomas Shugart and Toshi Yoshihara warn that “if Beijing achieved surprise in its pre-emptive strike operations, it could knock out most U.S. military assets on the Japanese archipelago.”

However, launching an attack on Japan would be a bold and risky move for Chinese President Xi Jinping. While the potential military benefits are clear, the strategic risks are enormous. Such an unprovoked strike would likely provoke a massive international response, including full-scale retaliation from the U.S. and its allies. Japan has not been attacked in this way since World War II, and an assault would be seen as a violation of global norms, much like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been. Xi would have to consider whether the military advantages are worth the political and economic fallout that would surely follow.

The Strategic Dilemma for China

From a purely military perspective, a preemptive strike on Japan might seem like a tempting option for China. Such a move would significantly increase the chances of a successful invasion of Taiwan by clearing the path of U.S. and Japanese interference. Historically, no modern amphibious operation has succeeded without the invader first neutralizing its adversary’s navy and air force. In this case, China would need to disable both Japan’s and the U.S.’s military capabilities to secure the air and sea superiority necessary for a large-scale amphibious assault.

But there is a catch. As Blumenthal points out, “the strategic and geopolitical risks for Xi Jinping of attacking the world’s largest and fourth-largest economies would be enormous.” Even Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has shown aggression in Ukraine, has avoided direct attacks on U.S. and allied forces. China would have to consider the global response to such an unprovoked strike, which would likely be swift and severe. A surprise attack would almost guarantee a united front from the U.S. and its allies, leading to an all-out war with China. Once the U.S. recovers from the initial strike, it could mount a massive counter-attack that would not only target Chinese military installations but also wreak havoc on China’s economy through sanctions and trade disruptions.

This strategic dilemma is something Xi Jinping must weigh carefully. The military gains from attacking Japan could be substantial, but the risks are equally high. Xi could decide to limit his attack to Taiwan and avoid provoking the U.S. and Japan directly, accepting a higher degree of operational risk for his amphibious forces. But if China does decide to expand its aggression to include Japan, it would trigger a global conflict with devastating consequences.

Japan’s Changing Security Strategy

Japan, once a pacifist nation that refrained from military engagement, is now rethinking its defense posture in response to the rising threat from China. Tokyo has recognized the shifting security dynamics in the region, particularly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has made it clear that Japan can no longer remain on the sidelines when it comes to global security issues. As Kishida stated, “Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow.” This realization has prompted Japan to take on a more active role in regional security, not only aligning itself more closely with the U.S. but also reaching out to other democratic nations.

Japan’s new security strategy reflects a significant shift from its post-World War II pacifism. Japan now sees itself as a key player in the Indo-Pacific security landscape, and it has been strengthening its alliances with countries like South Korea, the Philippines, and India, in addition to its longstanding partnership with the U.S. This shift is not just about bolstering Japan’s own defenses, but also about preparing for the possibility of being drawn into a conflict over Taiwan. As Blumenthal notes, there is “no war scenario in which Japan wouldn’t be affected by China’s aggression against Taiwan.” Japan’s proximity to Taiwan, coupled with its military alliance with the U.S., makes it impossible for Tokyo to stay out of any future conflict between China and Taiwan.

Japan’s growing role in regional security has also been demonstrated by its involvement in the Quad, a security initiative that includes the U.S., India, and Australia. In addition, Japan has held trilateral meetings with South Korea and the U.S., as well as South Korea and China, signaling its desire to be a leader in East Asian security. This new approach reflects Tokyo’s determination to counterbalance China’s rising influence in the region, particularly as Beijing continues to assert its dominance in the South China Sea and around Taiwan.

What Would the U.S. Do?

In the event of a Chinese strike on Japan, the U.S. would face immense pressure to intervene. The U.S. has a mutual defense treaty with Japan, which obligates it to come to Japan’s defense in the event of an attack. With tens of thousands of U.S. troops stationed in Japan, the American military presence there is a crucial component of regional stability. A strike on Japan would not only cripple U.S. military capabilities in the Pacific but would also be seen as an attack on the U.S. itself.

However, the U.S. faces its own strategic challenges. Blumenthal warns that “Washington is only now responding to China’s decades-long build-up of lethal military power,” and that U.S. military assets in the Pacific are highly vulnerable to a Chinese attack. While the U.S. would certainly retaliate, it is unclear how quickly it could mount a counter-strike from its remaining assets in the Pacific territories and Australia. In any case, the U.S. would likely escalate the conflict beyond the military realm, using cyber warfare and economic sanctions to weaken China’s position.

Additionally, a Chinese attack on Japan would likely draw in other regional players, such as South Korea, Singapore, and even the Philippines. These countries may remain neutral if the conflict is limited to Taiwan, but an attack on Japan would likely push them into the U.S. camp. Global public opinion would also turn sharply against China, as images of destroyed Japanese cities and U.S. military bases flood the media.

A High-Stakes Gamble for China

In the end, China’s decision to attack Japan—or to limit its aggression to Taiwan—will hinge on Xi Jinping’s willingness to accept the enormous risks involved. While a preemptive strike on Japan could give China a military advantage in a potential invasion of Taiwan, the strategic costs could be catastrophic. A unified U.S. and allied response, combined with global economic sanctions, could cripple China’s economy and destabilize its government.

At the same time, Japan’s evolving defense strategy shows that it is no longer willing to sit idly by as tensions in the region escalate. Tokyo is positioning itself as a key player in the Indo-Pacific security landscape, and its alliance with the U.S. makes it a critical factor in any future conflict involving China.

PBP Editor: China will continue to probe for weaknesses, and while an attack on Japan may seem outlandish on the surface, remember there is a lot of bitterness over how Chinese were treated during World War II. They are not historical friends. If China decides to go forward with a takeover of Taiwan, and if the U.S. is expected to involve itself no matter what, China would achieve a huge military advantage by destroying some of Japan’s ability to assist.