
<p>China and Russia recently held high-level meetings. ; The world’s nations were wondering if this would lead to more support for Putin’s dirty little war from the Middle Kingdom – especially military hardware and ammunition.</p>



<p>The answer to that question is still unknown at the time of this writing. ; But we have seen one result of the meeting – a peace proposal.  ; Chinese President Xi has let it be known that he would like to play a role in negotiating “peace” in Ukraine. ; The United States has played that role in several conflicts in the past.</p>



<p>The key question is whether Xi is – or even can play the role of &#8212; an honest broker between Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and the Mad Man of Moscow. ; Probably not for one very good reason. ; He is too closely aligned with Putin. ; One only needs to recall their betrothal meeting just before the start of Putin’s invasion in which they agreed to a “no limits” friendship.</p>



<p>China has not been critical of Putin’s decision to invade &#8212; or the manner in which he has carried out his brutal attack on innocent civilians in an independent world-recognized sovereign state. ; Despite sanctions, Xi has provided some economic assistance to Russia. ; Increasing oil purchases is one of them. ; But not the weapons Putin has requested from his big brother on the world stage – at least not yet.</p>



<p>Xi has every reason to want to see the war end. ; It is having a negative impact on China – both economically, in terms of world commerce, and in the image, as an ally of a regime committing war crimes. ; Xi understands that most of the world leaders are opposed to the Russian invasion – and the brutality in which it is being carried out. ; Putin is putting Xi on the wrong side of the world divide.</p>



<p>Can Xi improve his image and increase his world leadership by serving as a peacemaker? ; He could if that was what he was sincerely trying to do. ; I do not think that is the case, however. ; Xi’s proposal to negotiate an end to the war is insincere. ; That is not what he is trying to do.</p>



<p>It should not be surprising that Xi’s offer comes on the heels of that high-level meeting between Beijing and Moscow. ; Xi would not be announcing his proposals if they were not preliminarily discussed with Russia.</p>



<p>It seems obvious that Xi is offering Putin an exit ramp from the position he has put himself in. ; He is not winning the war – and could keep losing for months to come. He is trapped in his own box.</p>



<p>Xi is calling for an immediate ceasefire and the start of negotiations to seek a settlement. ; That means Putin wins. ; A ceasefire means that Putin’s army would continue to occupy its current geography as discussions ensued. ; And that could be forever. ; (Consider the Korean War. ; It ended in a ceasefire that has been in place for 70 years. Technically, the United States and Korea are still in a state of war.)</p>



<p>A ceasefire in Ukraine would break the current momentum currently enjoyed by Zelenskyy. ; It would give Putin time to rebuild his war machine. Inevitably the ceasefire would be broken – and the Mad Man of Moscow would be on the march again.</p>



<p>Xi may be the most conflicted man on earth in terms of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. ; According to initial reports, the Chinese President thought it was a bonehead action. ; It had no benefits for China. It dragged China into the chaos the invasion created. ; It complicated Xi’s ambition to take control of Taiwan.</p>



<p>China would like to see the conflict end but has limited ability to make that happen without a complete break with Putin. ; As to the issue of sending Chinese armaments to Putin, it would be a huge mistake – and one that I am inclined to believe Xi will avoid. ; But I am not certain. ; ;</p>



<p>The decision to send arms to Putin may rest on the same calculus that Putin used to launch the invasion in the first place – a perceived weakness on the part of Biden. ; Biden has threatened unspecified actions against China if they ignore the sanctions, but Biden also made threats that were ignored if Putin launched the invasion. ; And even since the invasion, Biden’s less than full-bore response could be an encouragement to Xi.</p>



<p>Hopefully, Biden and the pro-Ukraine world coalition will support Zelenskyy in summarily rejecting Xi’s offer and get on with winning – really winning &#8212; ; the war.</p>



<p>So, there ‘tis.</p>

Is China Brokering Peace … or Giving Putin an Out?
