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Could Iranian Protestors Force Regime Change?

<p>Signs of unrest continue in Iran despite the government&rsquo&semi;s insistence that the protests are over&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The protests&comma; which began in December&comma; have spread to more than 70 cities and towns&period; Protestors come from the lower and middle classes&comma; and nearly all are younger than age 25&period; Hundreds of people have been arrested and at least 20 have been killed&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The worst of the violence took place in smaller cities&comma; where protestors attacked law enforcement and state facilities like banks&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&ldquo&semi;It&rsquo&semi;s one thing to do that in the big city&comma; where you can get lost in the crowd&comma; but it&rsquo&semi;s something else to do it in a place where you are very easily identifiable&period; I think it shows they have lost fear of the state itself&comma; which is a very big deal&comma;&rdquo&semi; says Narges Bajoghli&comma; author of <em>Anxieties of Power&colon; Sustaining the Revolution in Iran&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;em><&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Iranian soldiers and local authorities have managed to quell most of the violence&comma; but recent social media posts show protestors burning ID cards and utility bills&period; These images are reminiscent of similar demonstrations held during the Vietnam War in the 1960&rsquo&semi;s&comma; when the burning of draft cards came to symbolize resistance to the war&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Protestors&rsquo&semi; grievances are mostly economic in nature&comma; including high unemployment &lpar;40-60&percnt; in some areas&rpar;&comma; inflation&comma; and mass corruption within the banking industry&period; Protestors blame the stagnant economy on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei&comma; but have also criticized President Hassan Rouhani for policies that benefit the rich and take from the poor&period; Dissidents are also frustrated with what they see as a waste of resources in Syria&comma; Yemen&comma; and Lebanon&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&ldquo&semi;The rage among Iranians should come as no surprise&comma;&rdquo&semi; writes <em>Politico&rsquo&semi;s<&sol;em> Alireza Nader&period; Today&rsquo&semi;s unrest follows decades of greed&comma; repression&comma; and mismanagement&period; Federal water policies have destroyed lakes and rivers&comma; and Iranian cities are among the most polluted in the world&period; International sanctions&comma; applied in response to Iran&rsquo&semi;s nuclear program&comma; are another key factor in the struggling economy&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>More than anything else&comma; the protests are a clear sign that the Islamic Republic is no longer able to control its people&period;&nbsp&semi; &nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&ldquo&semi;The current revolt may not lead to the immediate collapse of the regime&comma; but we are witnessing the death throes of the Islamic Republic&comma;&rdquo&semi; writes Nader&period; &ldquo&semi;Even if the uprising ends today&comma; it is but one step in a long struggle to achieve a more representative&comma; democratic&comma; and popular government&period;&rdquo&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p><strong>America&rsquo&semi;s Response&nbsp&semi;<&sol;strong><&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Iran is a big dog in the Middle East&comma; but its people clearly resent its religious&comma; economic&comma; and social policies&period; This could provide President Trump with a rare chance to increase leverage against Iran&period;&nbsp&semi; &nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>According to WH Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders&comma; the Administration&rsquo&semi;s top goals for Iranian leaders are achieving &ldquo&semi;basic rights&rdquo&semi; for the peopled and ending the sponsorship of terror&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&ldquo&semi;Such respect for the people of Iran as they try to take back their corrupt government&comma;&rdquo&semi; tweeted Trump on Wednesday&period; &ldquo&semi;You will see great support from the United States at the appropriate time&excl;&rdquo&semi;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Trump&rsquo&semi;s support for the protestors was met with condemnation from Iranian leaders&comma; who have blamed foreign powers including the US and Saudi Arabia for fueling the unrest&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Critics have urged Trump to keep quiet&comma; but the way I see it&comma; the more attention we bring to the protests&comma; the more likely Tehran will be forced to show restraint&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&ldquo&semi;&lbrack;This is&rsqb; not a moment for anyone other than the Iranian people&period; It&rsquo&semi;s important that we stand in solidarity with them and try to provide them whatever support we can&comma;&rdquo&semi; says Senator Tom Cotton &lpar;R-AR&rpar;&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>A key element of US support for the dissidents will be to ensure sufficient broadcast programming to counter the regime&rsquo&semi;s claims&period; This could be difficult following the regime&rsquo&semi;s restriction of social media sites including Facebook and Twitter&period; Instagram and Telegram &lpar;a messaging service&rpar; were completely blocked on the fourth day of protests&period;&nbsp&semi;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The unrest in Iran could also affect Trump&rsquo&semi;s upcoming decision on whether to certify Iran&rsquo&semi;s compliance with the nuclear deal and his January 12th deadline on whether to renew a temporary waiver for US sanctions on Iran&period; The former decision must occur every 90 days&comma; and the latter every 120 days for the next several years&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Trump decertified Iran&rsquo&semi;s compliance in October and is likely to do so again&period; It is unclear whether he will waive or renew the sanctions this month&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&ldquo&semi;We certainly keep our options open in terms of sanctions&comma;&rdquo&semi; said Huckabee Sanders&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&&num;8212&semi;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The UN will hold an emergency meeting later this week to discuss the situation&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p><strong>Editor&&num;8217&semi;s note&colon;<&sol;strong> The pressure is on&comma; but Iran could be brutal in putting the protests down&period; The question is&colon; How determined are the protestors&quest;<&sol;p>&NewLine;

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