By now we all know that Iran attacked Israel with approximately 170 drones, 120 ballistic missiles and 30 cruise missiles. This attack was repulsed by Israel with the support of the U.S., France and Jordan, apparently “only 1% got through.” At the time of this writing, we have seen no indication of where the attack got through, and no mention of casualties, if any.
We can breathe a collective sigh of relief that this attack was a miserable failure, but now it is time to ask the next question.
What’s next?
President Biden has said he will not support retaliation by Israel. Newsmax sources say that he told Netanyahu “You got a win. Take the win.” Seems a pretty bitter pill for him to swallow, and probably irrelevant to the policy decisions of Israel.
A great many folks General David Petraeus and former Trump advisor John Bolton have gone on record saying that retaliation is critical to creating a deterrent of future attacks. Reports say that Israel’s war cabinet is discussing that very thing. Given that Israel has survived by being the meanest and strongest dog in the neighborhood and that a lack of response signals weakness.
But let’s have a look at some of the political and propaganda aspects of this.
1. Comment from CNN, the attack seemed to want to avoid casualties and more for spectacle than for damage. Israel had substantial warning since Iran launched the drones first which only fly at about 115 miles per hour. Soft approach?
Hmmm, is Iran setting itself up for victimhood? We have seen major pro-Palistinian protests within America and around the world, making claims as outrageous as “genocide” seemingly forgetting that it all started with a ruthless slaughter of 1200 Israeli men, women and children.
Cynical? Can Iran become a realistic “victim” in this? After all, they claim that Israel attacked a diplomatic facility in Syria that killed Iranian military officers. It is a propaganda play that has worked once, thanks to the Western press, it could work again.
2. Do we have any doubt that this attack was sanctioned by China? We do know that Iran is so beholden to China at this point that orders will be followed. The motivation is obvious, if the U.S. is focused on Israel, they will be less inclined to pay attention to the Russia-Ukraine war. And we all know that the American people are easily distracted. That is why we elect politicians who (supposedly) can walk and chew gum at the same time (better luck next time, America…). This strategy seems to be working, why not escalate. Once again, propaganda that could have genuine military impact.
3. Will this turn into a “wag the dog” situation for Biden? Everyone knows that a wartime President is always more popular than a peacetime president. He has already said he will “not support” retaliation. But will he be “reluctantly” drawn into a wider conflict? Is this cynical on my part, thinking that Biden, in a desperate gamble, might make the biggest propaganda play of all and support a war to get reelected?
It might be cynical, except for one small detail. It works. Let me emphasize that.
It works.