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Iowa Caucus: It all Depends on Turnout

<p>Today will be a historic day for leading presidential candidates as initial elections begin with the Iowa caucus&period; The latest polls of Hawkeye State voters show Bernie Sanders with a 4-point lead over Hillary Clinton&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The Quinnipiac University poll released last Wednesday shows Bernie Sanders with 49&percnt; followed by Hillary Clinton with 45&percnt;&period; Martin O&rsquo&semi;Malley remains at the tail end with single digit support&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&ldquo&semi;Is this d&eacute&semi;j&agrave&semi; vu all over again&quest; Who would have thunk it when the campaign began&quest;&&num;8221&semi; asks Peter Brown of Quinnipiac&period; &&num;8220&semi;Secretary Hillary Clinton struggling to keep up with Senator Bernie Sanders in the final week before the Iowa caucus&period;&nbsp&semi;It must make her think of eight years ago when her failure in Iowa cost her the presidency&comma;&rdquo&semi; he added&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Sanders has been leading in the Hawkeye State for several weeks now&comma; with voter statistics showing a strong male vote&period; Meanwhile&comma; female Democrats&nbsp&semi;continue to cling to the idea of Hillary Clinton as the first female president&period;&nbsp&semi;Senator Sanders earns the most support from voters who identify as &ldquo&semi;very liberal&rdquo&semi; whereas Clinton receives support from voters who consider themselves &ldquo&semi;somewhat liberal&period;&rdquo&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&ldquo&semi;Perhaps more than other contests&comma; the Iowa caucuses are all about turnout&comma;&rdquo&semi; explains Mr&period; Brown&period; &ldquo&semi;If those young&comma; very liberal Democratic Caucus participants show up Monday and are organized&comma; it will be a good night for Senator Sanders&period; And if Sanders does win Iowa&comma; that could keep a long-shot nomination scenario alive&period;&rdquo&semi;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>While a win in Iowa &lpar;and probably New Hampshire&rpar; will certainly keep the underdog socialist in the game&comma; let&rsquo&semi;s not forget that Rick Santorum won in Iowa before his campaign eventually fizzled out&period; This week&nbsp&semi;Santorum said he wouldn&&num;8217&semi;t have stood a chance with this year&&num;8217&semi;s debate rules&period;&nbsp&semi;&ldquo&semi;Four short years ago&comma; you won Iowa&comma; beat Mitt Romney&comma; shocked the country&comma; but just the other day you talked about &lsquo&semi;doing what is in the greater good&rsquo&semi; for your campaign&period; Is Monday night your last stand&quest;&rdquo&semi; asked Bill Hemmer of <em>Fox News<&sol;em>&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Santorum replied that this is the type of question that makes voters distrust the American media&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>On the other side of the fence&comma; we&rsquo&semi;ve got Donald Trump leading by 7 points in Iowa over second-place candidate Ted Cruz&period;&nbsp&semi;While Senator Cruz has made Iowa a priority in recent months&comma; he saw Trump surpass him in the Hawkeye State with an 11 point increase during&nbsp&semi;the past 30 days&period; Trump admitted to <em>ABC News<&sol;em> this week that he never&nbsp&semi;thought he would be in the lead just before the caucus&period; &&num;8220&semi;I&&num;8217&semi;m somebody who knows how to win&comma;&&num;8221&semi; he said&period; &&num;8220&semi;I close the deal&period; But I never thought I&&num;8217&semi;d have 24 point leads in different states&period;&&num;8221&semi;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>A Monmouth University poll released last week shows Trump with 30&percnt; in Iowa followed by Cruz with 23&percnt; and Senator Marco Rubio with 16&percnt;&period; Evangelical&comma; &ldquo&semi;very conservative&comma;&rdquo&semi; and Tea Party voters tend to support&nbsp&semi;Cruz while Trump leads among the &ldquo&semi;somewhat conservative&comma;&rdquo&semi; non-evangelical&comma; and moderate voters&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&ldquo&semi;Turnout is basically what separates Trump and Cruz right now&comma;&rdquo&semi; says Patrick Murray of Monmouth&period; &ldquo&semi;Trump&rsquo&semi;s victory hinges on having a high number of self-motivated&comma; lone wolf caucus-goers show up Monday night&period;&rdquo&semi; About 170&comma;000 voters are exptected to show up for the Iowa caucus&period; This is a&nbsp&semi;significant increase from the GOP turnout four years ago &lpar;122&comma;000&rpar;&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;

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