
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">For many years, polls have shown a consistent advantage for the Democratic Party. ; There have been more Democrat declared voters than Republican declared voters. ; Not anymore. ; Republicans have inched into the lead.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The most recent NBC Poll shows 40 percent of voters identify as Democrats and 41 percent say they are Republicans. ; In 2016, President Trump won despite a 7-point lead for Democrats. ; ;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">It also appears that there has been a reduction in the number of non-aligned independent voters to 19 percent. Some past polls have shown Democrats with the lead followed by independents – putting Republican voters in third place. Past gains among independents were either illusionary or a lot more Americans are choosing a side in recent months.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">This trend was also seen in an April Pew Research Poll showing that the past 7-point advantage for Democrats had dropped to a 1-point advantage in December of 2023.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">While a 1-point lead in the NBC Poll is in the margin of error and may essentially reflect a tie, the movement from a solid 7-point lead for Democrats to a statistical tie is dramatic – and not good news for Team Biden.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Conventional wisdom – and some statistical evidence – has put the majority of the independent vote into the Democrat Camp. ; According to the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, Biden carried the independent vote by 13 points in 2020 – 54 percent to 41 percent. ; Current surveys put the split at only 4 points – 52 to 48, a 9-point drop for Biden.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">While the number of Republican core voters is increasing, the number of Democrats is decreasing in three major categories – Blacks, Hispanics and Women. Democrats still hold a formidable lead in those demographics, but not as formidable as in the past.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Pew numbers show a drop in Black support for Democrats from 83 percent in 2016 to 71 percent in the most recent poll – a phenomenal drop of 12 points. It that is the reality in the election, it is arguably the most dramatic loss of Black voters for the Democratic Party in 50-plus years.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Democrats are suffering significant losses in Hispanic support. ; NBC polling showed a 39-point advantage in 2016. ; Today it is a 26-point advantage – a drop of 13 points.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">While partisan strategists quibble over the exact numbers &#8230; find outlier polls with different outcomes &#8230; or spin the facts as best they can &#8230; there is one irrefutable fact. Trump and the GOP are drawing support from Blacks and Hispanics in numbers not seen in several decades.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">According to Republican pollster Bill McInturff, the shift in the Black and Hispanic vote is not all due to Trump’s appeal, but a growing disenchantment with Biden&#8217;s policies. </p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Statistically, Blacks and Hispanics are hit hardest by the Biden inflation and his immigration policies that have had significant negative impacts on Blacks and Hispanics in the major urban centers – including shifting of financial resources &#8230; occupation of schools and other public places &#8230; and increased crime.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The future election is currently judged to be very close based on today’s numbers. ; However, these shifts in the polling statistics suggest the possibility of a breakpoint in which one of the candidates surges to a significant lead. ; The momentum for such an occurrence is with Trump. ; The polling numbers have been consistently trending in Trump’s favor throughout the campaign – and despite all the baggage Democrats have been piling on.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The under-reported shift in party affiliation may seem modest, but may merely be the first rumblings of much larger and more fundamental change in American politics. Stay tuned.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">So, there ‘Tis.</p>

In case you did not notice …. Republicans take lead in number of voters
