For many years, polls have shown a consistent advantage for the Democratic Party. There have been more Democrat declared voters than Republican declared voters. Not anymore. Republicans have inched into the lead.
The most recent NBC Poll shows 40 percent of voters identify as Democrats and 41 percent say they are Republicans. In 2016, President Trump won despite a 7-point lead for Democrats.
It also appears that there has been a reduction in the number of non-aligned independent voters to 19 percent. Some past polls have shown Democrats with the lead followed by independents – putting Republican voters in third place. Past gains among independents were either illusionary or a lot more Americans are choosing a side in recent months.
This trend was also seen in an April Pew Research Poll showing that the past 7-point advantage for Democrats had dropped to a 1-point advantage in December of 2023.
While a 1-point lead in the NBC Poll is in the margin of error and may essentially reflect a tie, the movement from a solid 7-point lead for Democrats to a statistical tie is dramatic – and not good news for Team Biden.
Conventional wisdom – and some statistical evidence – has put the majority of the independent vote into the Democrat Camp. According to the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, Biden carried the independent vote by 13 points in 2020 – 54 percent to 41 percent. Current surveys put the split at only 4 points – 52 to 48, a 9-point drop for Biden.
While the number of Republican core voters is increasing, the number of Democrats is decreasing in three major categories – Blacks, Hispanics and Women. Democrats still hold a formidable lead in those demographics, but not as formidable as in the past.
Pew numbers show a drop in Black support for Democrats from 83 percent in 2016 to 71 percent in the most recent poll – a phenomenal drop of 12 points. It that is the reality in the election, it is arguably the most dramatic loss of Black voters for the Democratic Party in 50-plus years.
Democrats are suffering significant losses in Hispanic support. NBC polling showed a 39-point advantage in 2016. Today it is a 26-point advantage – a drop of 13 points.
While partisan strategists quibble over the exact numbers … find outlier polls with different outcomes … or spin the facts as best they can … there is one irrefutable fact. Trump and the GOP are drawing support from Blacks and Hispanics in numbers not seen in several decades.
According to Republican pollster Bill McInturff, the shift in the Black and Hispanic vote is not all due to Trump’s appeal, but a growing disenchantment with Biden’s policies.
Statistically, Blacks and Hispanics are hit hardest by the Biden inflation and his immigration policies that have had significant negative impacts on Blacks and Hispanics in the major urban centers – including shifting of financial resources … occupation of schools and other public places … and increased crime.
The future election is currently judged to be very close based on today’s numbers. However, these shifts in the polling statistics suggest the possibility of a breakpoint in which one of the candidates surges to a significant lead. The momentum for such an occurrence is with Trump. The polling numbers have been consistently trending in Trump’s favor throughout the campaign – and despite all the baggage Democrats have been piling on.
The under-reported shift in party affiliation may seem modest, but may merely be the first rumblings of much larger and more fundamental change in American politics. Stay tuned.
So, there ‘Tis.