If you follow leftwing reporting, you hear that President Biden has been one of the most effective presidents in American history. His policies have produced nothing less than an economic miracle. Coincidentally, he is running against the worst, most corrupt, most evil presidential candidate in American history. According to the Democrat spin machine, the return of President Trump to the White House would be a catastrophic disaster – literally the precipitous collapse of the American Republic.
Were those political narratives even remotely true, the 2024 presidential campaign would be a landslide for Biden – the greatest landslide in American history. Biden would be in line to carry all 50 states – or at least 49 states, as did President Reagan in 1984. Or at least 48 states, as did President Nixon in 1972 and President Roosevelt in 1936.
But noooooo!
Judging from the current polling numbers, if the election were being held today Biden would likely lose. His favorable rating has been falling for more than a year. Each time that Biden’s favorable rating appears to have reached its nadir, it goes lower.
The recent New York Times/Siena College poll of registered voters (the most reliable polling) shows Trump with a five-point (48 to 43) lead over Biden in a head-to-head contest. According to the poll, 47 percent of respondents “strongly disapprove” of Biden’s handling of the presidency.
There is even more trouble for Biden in the critical battleground states. According to the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, Trump leads Biden by nine points in North Carolina. He leads Biden by six points in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Nevada – and holds a 2-point lead in Pennsylvania. While Biden has been ahead in Wisconsin in previous polls, he has surrendered that lead to Trump by four points according to Bloomberg.
When Bloomberg included Robert Kennedy, Cornel West and Jill Stein, the numbers improved for Trump. He leads Biden by 10 points in North Carolina, 9 points in Arizona and Pennsylvania, 7 points in Georgia and Nevada and 6 points in Wisconsin. Conversely, Trump loses 1 point in Michigan in the five-way contest.
When you get into the weeds of the polling numbers, there are a number of figures that should alarm Team Biden. While 97 percent of those who voted for Trump in 2020 will do so again, only 83 percent of Biden voters are still on board. A full 10 percent of those who voted for Biden in 2020 say they will vote for Trump in 2024.
Biden Campaign Communications Director Michael Tyler gave the Biden response.
“Polling continues to be at odds with how Americans vote, and consistently overestimates Donald Trump while underestimating President Biden. Whether it’s in special elections or in the presidential primaries, actual voter behavior tells us a lot more than any poll does and it tells a very clear story: Joe Biden and Democrats continue to outperform while Donald Trump and the party he leads are weak, cash-strapped, and deeply divided. Our campaign is ignoring the noise and running a strong campaign to win — just like we did in 2020.”
While Tyler’s response is typical, he could be correct. There is a lot of time between now and November. Lots of things can, and will, happen between now and then. But as if now, we can all agree that Biden is faring VERY poorly – especially with his efforts to demonize Trump.
MSNBC’s numbers cruncher Steve Kornacki noted that at this time in 2020, all the polls showed Biden with a lead over Trump. This Year, virtually all the major polls show Trump ahead.
Reading between the lines, it is the details in these polls that tell us a lot more than the head-to-head contest between Biden and Trump. You have to look at how different constituencies are trending -and how the vote looks when looked at from the standpoint of the battleground states – and the breakout of the Electoral College. Those are the numbers that should have Biden staying awake at night.
This is a lot of analysis of what pollsters are telling us. Unfortunately, it is not credibly predictive of the actual election outcome in November. It does, however, give the political class something over which to cheer or worry.
So, there ‘tis.