
<p>I have been in the game of political punditry for more than 50 years – professionally. ; My opinions were sought by friends and clients based on a record of accurate prognostications. I cannot think of a time in my career when I have been more wrong about an election outcome.</p>



<p>I believed in the red wave – with Republicans taking 20 to 30 seats in the house and a slightly better than 50/50 chance of the GOP taking the Senate by a seat or two. ; I thought Republicans would do well in electing governors and other state-based constitutional offices. ; Maybe even some gains in state legislatures. ; I expected at least some of the so-called MAGA candidates would win their elections &#8212; Kari Lake in Arizona and Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, to name a couple.</p>



<p>Now that the dust has mostly settled on virtually all the races, I face the fact that my crystal ball did not see the results. ; Not even close. ; As a political analyst, I had to do a little analysis of myself. ; Where was I wrong – and why?</p>



<p>I do take some comfort – but not a lot – in the fact that most of the observers and pundits, on both sides, were also wrong. ; The polls were wrong … again. ; While it is not my method to parrot what other pundits and pollsters say, they are a factor in my own analytical process.</p>



<p>What I discovered is that this was truly an unprecedented Midterm Election. ; It was unique while I was factoring in historic realities. ; ;</p>



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>Republicans traditionally do better than the pollsters indicate. ; This year it was the opposite. ; One media analyst said that because of past errors, pollsters over compensated and gave too much consideration to Republican votes when making up their models. ; That makes sense. ; It explains why all those super tight races did not fall to the Republicans, but to the Democrats – by significant margins in many cases.</li>
</ol>



<ol class="wp-block-list" start="2">
<li>Abortion has never been an issue that drives voters. ; Although I still maintain it was not a deciding factor for most voters, it obviously played a larger role than I thought it would.</li>
</ol>



<ol class="wp-block-list" start="3">
<li>Remember “It’s the economy, stupid”? ; Since Democrat operative James Carville said those immortal words back in 1992, it has been a political truism. ; Not this year. ; With the worst inflation in 50 years … high gas prices … and supply chain shortages …. It should have been a slam dunk for the GOP. ; Democrats were successful in trumping the economy, so to speak.</li>
</ol>



<ol class="wp-block-list" start="4">
<li>The party in power does not do well when their President is below 50 percent in the favorable rating. ; President Biden had been bouncing between the high 30s and mid-40s. Obviously, that tradition did not apply this year.</li>
</ol>



<ol class="wp-block-list" start="5">
<li>Then there was the youth vote. ; Unlike previous elections, young folks did more than talk about politics. ; They came out in greater numbers than in the past – and thanks to educational indoctrination, they swung far left.</li>
</ol>



<ol class="wp-block-list" start="6">
<li>Independents historically break to the Republican Party. ; Not this year.</li>
</ol>



<p>None of these were a silver bullet. ; It took all of these in some measure to influence the outcome. ; But there was another factor – and even more important factor – Donald Trump. ; Democrat accusations and criticism – many ways over the top – and Trump’s own big mouth and bad behavior created a powerful anti-GOP force among the voters. ; While the things I mentioned above played a roll, I do believe that this was a huge “anti” election. ; The people were not voting for Democrats as much as against Republicans. ; Democrats were again successful in smearing the GOP brand with their attacks on Trump.</p>



<p>Ironically, it is the same “anti” voting that put Trump in office in 2016 – and got him 74 million votes in 2020. ; What changed this year as a big percentage of voters dislike the Trump Republican Party more than they disliked the Biden Democratic Party. ; I obviously missed that wave.</p>



<p>So, there tis.</p>



<p>P.S. The only good news is that I never bet on political races.</p>

How could I be so wrong?
