Horist: Hidy-ho Heidi Heitkamp

Larry Horist

8 years ago

North Dakota Democrat Senator Heidi Heitkamp has been &ndash&semi; and continues to be &ndash&semi; the number one incumbent in America likely to lose her seat in Congress&period;&nbsp&semi; Her decision to vote against Brett Kavanaugh will not change the trajectory very much&period;&nbsp&semi; She has been likely to lose no matter which way she votes&period;&NewLine;For months, there was conjecture that she would have to vote for Kavanaugh to save her seat in the overwhelmingly Republican red state of North Dakota&period;&nbsp&semi; In the most recent polls, she was behind her challenger, Congressman Kevin Cramer, 53 to 41&period;&nbsp&semi; &NewLine;She faced two choices&period;&nbsp&semi; Fall in line with the lock-step Democrats or represent the people who put her into office&period;&nbsp&semi; For a lot of reasons, it was not a tough call&period;&NewLine;She might have been a &ldquo&semi;yes&rdquo&semi; vote had her race been closer &ndash&semi; if she saw a chance of victory&period;&nbsp&semi; But with a 12-point deficit this close to the election, her chances of re-election linger in the low single digits&period;&nbsp&semi; Odds-makers are not even able to get long-shot bets on her winning in November&period;&NewLine;Any future she may have outside of North Dakota depends on her Democrat friends in Washington&period;&nbsp&semi; So, why be loyal to people who are about to kick you to the curb and upset the folks that can give her a job, a platform or an office in the future&quest;&nbsp&semi; While she was losing popularity in her home state, the vote against Kavanaugh will make here a hot property in the Democratic Party&period;&nbsp&semi; That is where her future lies&period;&NewLine;Heitkamp can shop for another Senate seat outside of North Dakota&period;&nbsp&semi; It would not be the first time a politician changed venues&period;&nbsp&semi; Illinoisan/Arkansian Hillary Clinton moved into New York for the sole purpose of running for the Senate &ndash&semi; and she succeeded&period;&nbsp&semi; Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney packed his bags and moved to Utah to run for the Senate &ndash&semi; and he appears to be succeeding&period;&NewLine;Heitkamp can take up residence in Washington and work for one of those prominent Democrat law firms &ndash&semi; although she may be barred from lobbying by President Trump&rsquo&semi;s Executive Order placing a five-year ban on ex-legislators&period;&nbsp&semi; Then there are those liberal Democrat think tanks where potential candidates for high office often park themselves as they await their opportunity&period;&nbsp&semi; Should a Democrat move into the Oval Office in 2020 or even 2024, Heitkamp would be high in the list for a Cabinet post&period;&NewLine;Had she been in a close race with Cramer, there is a possibility that she would have voted in favor of Kavanaugh&period;&nbsp&semi; But losing a few more votes &ndash&semi; or even a lot more votes &ndash&semi; in a race that she could no longer win makes little difference&period;&nbsp&semi; Unlike horseshoes, in political campaigns close does not count&period;&nbsp&semi; You either win or lose&period;&nbsp&semi; That does not mean that Heitkamp does not have a future in politics&period; It just means not as the United States Senator from North Dakota&period;&NewLine;Heitkamp&rsquo&semi;s decision to put the thumb down on the Kavanaugh confirmation leaves West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin as the sole Democrat who might &ndash&semi; just might &ndash&semi; give Kavanaugh a positive vote&period;&nbsp&semi; But, I doubt it&period;&nbsp&semi; That would mean that none of the so-called vulnerable Democrat senators &ndash&semi; those from states Trump carried big &&num;8212&semi; will break ranks&period;&nbsp&semi; Now we just have to see if others can do what Heitkamp apparently cannot do&period;&nbsp&semi; Get re-elected&period;&NewLine;