
<p>There can be no refutation of the fact that Vice President Harris has taken a small lead in most of the national polls. ; If you crunch all the polls together, Harris jumped 8 points – from a four point deficit to a four point lead.</p>



<p>While that is not good news for President Trump, it is not devastating either. ; In previous commentaries, I foresaw Harris getting a bump simply by not being an 81-year-old man with an unpopular record and diminishing mental and physical capability &#8212; which she did. ; I also predicted that she would get another bump out of the Democrat convention – which she did not. ; And that is noteworthy.</p>



<p>As a typical example, we can look at the Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) poll. (Wouldn’t FAU Poll have been sufficient?) ; It puts Harris in the lead 48 percent to 44 percent.</p>



<p>Since the numbers between Harris and Trump are tight – to say the least – any bumps can swing the pendulum. The two things to be considered at this time is the size of the lead – and how it can change in the future.</p>



<p>If there is any good news for Trump, it is the size of the Harris lead. ; She did not surge into a commanding lead despite all the happy talk, optimism and fairy dust being tossed around at the convention – and despite the overwhelmingly rave reviews given to Harris by a crony news media. ;</p>



<p>Also, Trump can take some solace from the act that most polls show her below 50 percent. A 48 to 44 percent lead leaves 9 percent of potential voters unaccounted for &#8212; more than enough to flip the lead. Harris&#8217; favorability rating is also below 50 percent.</p>



<p>Of course, there is not a lot of time to change the numbers. North Carolina – an important battleground state &#8212; starts early voting as you read this. Yep! Voting is about to be underway. The earliest ballots are already in the mail. Those who keep talking about the number of days to Election Day are living in the past. By then, most voters are likely to have already cast their ballots.</p>



<p>Trump is not down and out by a long shot. The skies over Harris have a number of dark clouds. Harris is still behind the curve on the issues voters rank as most important – the economy, inflation, immigration and crime. Harris leads abortion – which does not even hit the top ten voter concerns in most surveys – and is making Trump himself her major issue.</p>



<p>Harris&#8217; weakness on issues is why she has been avoiding public forums, press conferences and interviews. She had a friendly interview with CNN’s Dana Bash. That is it at the time of this commentary. So far, she is running the Biden bunker campaign. But her stand on issues – past and present – will come into play in the coming weeks. And despite the idolatry from the left and the media, Harris is not the most likable candidate in the political firmament.</p>



<p>While Minnesota Governor Tim Walz is an affable guy, his political beliefs are also a bit to the left of the American mainstream. He will be selling image over substance.</p>



<p>The Harris lead is secure. ; Looking at past races, Democrats with such narrow leads do not win. ; On the other hand, the theory that what is past is prologue may not apply to this unconventional election season. ; Despite all the emotional optimism, Harris may have topped out. ; That is ; just a “may.”</p>



<p>So, there ‘tis.</p>



<p>.</p>

Harris takes the lead in several polls … for now
