
<p>General Mike Minihan, head of the Air Force Air Mobility Command, recently suggested in a memo that the United States and China would be at war in 2025. ; He said he hoped he was wrong, but that is what his “gut” is telling him.</p>



<p> ;Calling that prognostication alarming is an understatement – but is it credible? ; Would the two strongest militaries in the world actually engage in an all-out military conflict? ; Or is the General engaging in hyperbolic fearmongering?</p>



<p>To answer that question, we need to look at the prospect from two sides – what would create the conditions for war and what would prevent such a declaration?</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-why-war">Why War?</h2>



<p>There are two issues that most observers see as conditions for a military conflict with China. ; The overarching issue is the competition between the two nations for world leadership – political, diplomatic, economic, and, of course, militarily. ; At some point, the competitors would have to fight to be king of the mountain.</p>



<p>The wick that could light that powder keg is Taiwan. ; China wants to bring the island under its control as a province – which it once was. ; The United States is pledged to support Taiwan’s current quasi-independent status. ; ;</p>



<p>Beijing has some legacy to its claim. ; Even the United States maintains a “one China” policy – suggesting that Taiwan is part to China. ; Taiwan is not a recognized nation. ; That is why they are not in the UN or only participate in the Olympics under Chinese sponsorship. ; Most nations do not have ambassadors in Taipei. ; ; ;</p>



<p>To believe a war between the United States and China is possible, you have to believe that China will eventually invade Taiwan. ; That is not at all a certainty – and the reasons not to invade outnumber the perceived benefits of an invasion.</p>



<p>But there are other contentious issues between Washington and Beijing. ; A major one is control of the South China Sea. ; China claims hegemony over most of it, although the world of nations sees it as open waters. ; China has undertaken provocative actions – building islands and harassing ships traveling through the Sea.</p>



<p>Defeating the United States in a shooting war would certainly establish the authoritarian regime in Beijing as the supreme world power – something that motivates President Xi Jinping. But is that where he is heading?</p>



<p>There is no doubt that China is building a very powerful military. ; They most certainly intend to be the most powerful nation on earth – and they are proving to be a strong competitor for the title. ; But China’s economic muscle depends on … stability. ; Businesses do not invest in places where the future is not reasonably predictable or the environment is hostile. ; It was once said that the United States has never gone to war with a nation that has Mcdonald&#8217;s. ; It makes the point, but that may not always be the case.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Why No War?</h2>



<p>To imagine a direct conflict between the United States and China – as opposed to a proxy war in some region of the world – you have to ask where that war would be fought. ; However such a conflict starts, it is impossible to believe that it would not mean direct attacks on both nations – horrendous deadly attacks. ; America had a hint of that on 9/11, and China suffered the invasion by Japan in World War II. ; ;</p>



<p>Such a direct war could easily lead to nuclear attacks – perhaps even likely. ; Neither side would win without enormous carnage on both sides. ; In a real sense, it would be a Pyrrhic Victory for the winner.</p>



<p>A war between the United States and China could not be limited to a bilateral battle. It would swiftly lead into a world war. ; In that context, the United States would have the advantage. Virtually all the major nations – with significant militaries – would be on the American side. ; That would include NATO – the third most powerful military force in the world – and a number of non-NATO allies, such as Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Israel. ; Most of the world’s nuclear power rests in western nations. Also, several Southeast Asian nations – which fear an all-powerful China and oppose Beijing&#8217;s control of the South China Sea – are likely to join the western alliance – such as Vietnam.</p>



<p>China’s only nuclear allies would be Russia, Iran, and possibly a future North Korea. ; Nuclear nations like India and Pakistan would likely stay neutral – and if they did not, they would not likely align with China.</p>



<p>In terms of Taiwan, China is in a better position with the current situation than it would be in a war. ; First of all, an invasion of Taiwan will not sit well with the Chinese people. ; They share family and business ties. The people of China do not see the Taiwanese as their enemies.</p>



<p>Yes, China is building a powerful military – but does that portend a plan to launch a world war? ; It is likely more of a defense issue – and a cudgel of intimidation. ; The threat of war – especially nuclear war &#8212; can be a powerful influence in diplomacy and proxy wars – as we have seen in Ukraine.  ; But you have to have a huge army with which to intimidate.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Summary</strong></h2>



<p>With all the facts on the scale, the idea of an American/Chinese war seems to be remote. ; Perhaps not impossible, however. ; Nations do not start wars that they believe they cannot win. ; They may not always be right, but they start with the belief. ; Hitler and Putin are good examples. ; ;</p>



<p>It should be noted that General Minihan’s “gut feeling” is not shared by the folks at the Pentagon. ; A Defense official said, “These comments are not representative of the department&#8217;s view on China.&#8221; ;</p>



<p>Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/seriously-doubt-imminent-invasion-taiwan-by-china-pentagon-chief-2023-01-11/">said </a>that he seriously doubts that current Chinese military activities near the Taiwan Strait were a sign of an imminent invasion of the Island.</p>



<p>I tend to agree – and am inclined to think that Minihan’s communication was wrong and reckless.</p>



<p>So, there ‘tis.</p>

General Says War with China in Less than Two Years
