As the race to the White House turns into the post-Labor Day sprint, Trump’s numbers with men are increasing substantially. As the former president’s lead among men increases, so does his opponent’s among women. With this ever-widening gender gap since Harris took the top of the ticket away from Joe Biden, the 2024 election is shaping up to be one of the “boys versus the girls.”
The Gender Gap By the Numbers
Among women, Harris leads by 13 points, 54%-41%. Among men, former President Trump leads by 5 points, 51%-46%
These numbers should not be so surprising since the election has been defined by the perceived “masculinity” and “femininity” on either side even before Harris became the Democrats’ nominee. A surge in reproductive rights activism has helped tip elections toward Democrats since the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade. Harris’ campaign is seeking to build on that momentum.
On the other hand, the GOP has leaned into Trump’s macho appeals.
Looking deeper, according to recent reporting by ABC, much of the female-male change in fresh polling occurred among white people.
“White women have gone from +13 points for Trump pre-convention to a virtual dead heat (Trump +2) now; white men, from +13 points for Trump before the convention to +21 points now,” ABC News polling director Gary Langer wrote.
What Does it All Really Mean?
In the Harris fever since the convention and the recent bump in her numbers among women, on the surface, it may seem like Harris is pulling way ahead of Trump. But even top Democrats said they’re very worried that women’s rights activists now feel like this is a 60-40 race when, in reality, it’s still very much 50-50.
Harris had what many insiders call the best month in the history of presidential politics. But for all intents and purposes and despite the “happy happy joy joy” displays from the left, the race is still effectively a dead heat.
Over the weekend, a Fox News poll showed a 22-point gender gap — men favor Trump by 12 percentage points, and women prefer Vice President Kamala Harris by 10 – that is unprecedented in modern politics.
Furthermore, New York Times/Siena College polling data indicates that the gender gap is even more pronounced in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, three states that have served as bellwethers over the past four cycles. The margin grew to 32 points in the so-called “blue wall” states, with women favoring Harris by 17 points and a 15-point lead among men for Trump.
Even before Harris wrested the top of the ticket from failing Joe Biden, many have said that 2024 will hinge on turnout, particularly in the battleground states. But as the gender gap continues to widen, it will matter even more WHO turns out than how many, and that may very well come down to men for Trump and women for Harris.