FBI revises the crime figures. WHAT?
There is an old saw that “figures don’t lie, but liars’ figure.” But sometimes figures do not tell the truth.
You will recall that a couple months ago the FBI had reported a 1.7 percent decrease in crimes across the country in 2021-2022. On the surface that did not seem right – especially with all the increases in serious crimes being reported in the news media. But it was what it was — the official report from the agency that is supposed to know.
Democrats leaped on that report like Hunter Biden on a nickel bag of Mary Jane. They used the report to undermine President Trump’s tough-on-crime messaging. They took credit for the reported reduction in crime. President Biden bragged about it.
They also hammered Trump on his concern over crimes being committed by the illegal aliens entering the United States in droves. They used “official reports” to say that the migrants were less criminally inclined than American citizens.
Weeell … the FBI recently “revised” their earlier crime numbers. Crime did NOT decline by 1.7 percent but INCREASED by 4.5 percent. Wow! That is a 6.2 percent correction. That means thousands of crimes – including the most serious — were simply not included in the initial report.
You may recall that ABC’s debate moderator, David Muir, used the now-debunked report of declining crime rates as a fact-check on Trump. Turns out that Muir’s entering into the debate was not only inappropriate, but totally wrong. He misinformed the viewers. (It should serve as yet another example of why moderators should not be allowed to fact-check. But that is an issue for future commentary.)
As it turns out, Trump has been right on crime. Not only are the new figures consistent with his claims – but they reflect the anecdotal opinions of millions of Americans who are victimized – directly or indirectly – by the higher crime rates. This is especially true of those in high crime areas – such as the segregated Black and Hispanic urban communities … those living along the open southern border … and those communities that are impacted by the arrival of large numbers of migrants, including criminals.
Democrat leaders view criminals as part of their base – although we rarely see polling on that demographic. The closest we have come to that are surveys that show the vast majority of prisoners vote (where they can) Democrat. That is why one of the Democrats’ policy planks is to expand voting rights to incarcerated or convicted felons – unless the convicted felon is Donald Trump, of course.
We know that Democrats pander to the criminal elements. Where Democrats govern, states’ attorneys use prosecutorial discretion to NOT indict certain classes of criminals. They routinely return violent criminals to the streets. They enact laws and rules that eliminate categories of crime – such as stealing merchandise valued at less than $900. Vice President Harris even raised money to bail out rioters, looters, arsonists and those committing personal violence.
Democrats use the reports that migrants commit fewer crimes than American citizens to dismiss the reality of the crimes they do commit – crimes that would not be committed if we had control of the border. MS-13 and Tren de Aragua gangs are both examples of illegal border crossers killing, robbing, raping and terrorizing American citizens.
Whether the relative crime rates are true or not, illegal border crossing adds to the number significantly – and unnecessarily. But Democrats have no interest in reducing the crime rate – unless it is merely by statistical manipulation, declaring certain crimes are no longer crimes or playing down migrant crime.
At the bottom line, there is a truth. The American people are being victimized by too much crime – of all kinds. It is increasing, not decreasing, because of the fact that Democrats have simply declared some crimes to no longer be crimes and ignored many others – or that carry out policies that encourage crime. The flood of Illegal border crossers ARE adding to the crime statistics. The Democratic Party has had a long and sad record of being “soft on crime” – and they are worse today than ever.
So, there ‘tis.
There is no way to sugar coat this, the FBI screwed up. Hey, the FBI is run by a Republican, what do you expect?
Seriously, not so much a data change, but the magnitude of the change combined with the lack of communications really smells. The magnitude is explainable, but they shouldn’t have to at this date. The quietness of the communications is wrong making the magnitude issue look even worse.
First, let’s be clear, this is 2021-2022, bear in mind that’s a few years ago. We already have 2022-2023 and it’s down from the corrected 2021-2022 so under Biden, crime is down. Second, while the 2021-2022 data was accurate, the FBI made three compounding errors:
The first is miscounting the data, actually I say this is the lesser of evils. Why? Because this data, by definition, has input anomalies, always will. Like unemployment, inflation, whatever, the number will shift, hopefully minor, in the future post initial publication. That’s call life in the city of statistics. Matter of fact, there’s hardly a statistic that does not. In the 2021-2022, a third of police did not report including NYC and LA and a host of other cities, large and small. You have to know that will change things. They had to know. But that’s the point, we were not told, we did not know.
The second, and more egregious error, was not explaining the data inputs and the fact that they will undoubtedly change with NY, LA or both. I mean that’s a huge red flag that should have been noted, asterisked, whatever. Bigtime error since no matter how safe NYC may be, it’s a big number. It’s called a footnote, an asterisk, whatever. Big notice. Coulda made this a non-issue if they did that.
And the third, the worst failure, was not to fess up upon correction; that looks like a coverup. Especially since the direction changed from down to up, and the number is a major campaign issue, and with those cities, the number could be very significant. And it is.
In 2023, participation rose from 66% to 85% so this will be more accurate, but still not the best it can be.
In 2023 for the 2022-2023 report delivered in September 2023, the FBI recorded a rate of 363.8 violent crimes per 100,000 people, down from the 2022 rate of 377.1. The agency revised the violent crime rate between 2021 and 2022. Previously, the figures showed a 2.1% fall over this period, now the agency says there was a 4.5% rise. No matter how you cut it, Biden/Harris have a good record on crime. Violent crime in 2023 is lower than 2020 and every indication that 2024 is lower yet. Bite me.
You really can’t fault Biden on this error, the FBI is run by a Republican, like Comey, and I could go on about October surprises, Republicans in the administration tank Democrats again, and we need a full investigation of how the FBI made this mistake at the speed of House on a FOX fire for a Trump ear nick. In reality, the FBI, at minimum, needs to learn how to footnote and explain how this did not have a caveat from the git-go. In a perfect world, they would fully caveat all data nuances. Problem is that in our sound bite, power point chart, driven world, footnotes, long descriptions, are considered the purview of the elite. Such is life. Buck up and do the work professionally.
The author states: “sometimes figures do not tell the truth.” Cute. I remind him that figures don’t lie just like guns don’t kill. The author has taken this moment, this example, to prove Trump right, Biden/Harris wrong, but that’s not the truth either. I will detail more on the author’s opinions in a moment; they gave a good chuckle.
BOTTOM LINE: Republicans run the FBI. This is like the Comey October surprise. Need full investigation. Fix the reporting process so this mistake is never repeated. Given Comey, some may say it already has. Violent crime lower in 2023 than 2024, we are better off than under Trump. And 2024 looks to be lower.
Lower in 2023 than 2022, (not 2024) and 2024 will be lower.
My mistake.
I do not agree with all of the opinions of the author as follows:
The author states: ‘You will recall that a couple months ago the FBI had reported a 1.7 percent decrease in crimes across the country in 2021-2022.” Uh, that was September of 2023…..I guess dates do not always tell the truth :>)
“As it turns out, Trump has been right on crime” except when you view the 2022-2023 statistics proving Trump has been wrong on crime and the Biden/Harris success to deliver lower crime rates in 2023 than Trump in 2020. Violent crime wise, we ARE better off than four years ago. Maybe it’s the migrants…..
I wish the author would be specific where “segregated Black and Hispanic urban communities” exist. He would like it because it’s more in the North. But what he wouldn’t like is that placing the blame on Democrats is both inaccurate and stupid. Here’s great link confirming the author on segregation, but clearing noting it’s both government and private business meaning chances are not 100% Democrats. I contend when you look at cities with Republican control, you will find similar, if not the same segregation. And when you look at State levels, it’s even more glaringly apparent. Somehow these authors often mistake population density with politics. Plus, the fair housing act signed in by LBJ is a major Democratic law to fight this. LBJ is a democrat. Biden/Harris have promised more laws to improve this. Trump has said he is the one, he can fix it overnight. Just like 4 years ago he had it fixed. Yeah, right. Great article, she has a book too:
*https://www.brookings.edu/articles/neighborhood-segregation-persists-for-black-latino-or-hispanic-and-asian-americans/*
The link story concludes: “This analysis of recent American Community Survey data suggests that segregation is still quite prevalent in the United States. More than a half-century after the civil rights movement and fair housing legislation, white Americans continue to reside in mostly (and often largely) white neighborhoods, even as the nation’s overall population becomes much more racially and ethnically diverse.
These patterns have changed only modestly since the 21st century began. While measurable progress in closing the nation’s racial divide has been made on many fronts— including in educational attainment, hiring, and the rise in multiracial marriages—race-ethnic segregation in American neighborhoods represents an area where historical patterns are slow to change. Thus, there is good reason for the current administration to place renewed emphasis on ending housing discrimination and the forces which have allowed it to persist.”
“Democrat leaders view criminals as part of their base” but Republicans run felons for President. Sexual abusers and tax cheats too.
There is no doubt that illegals add to crime just as there is no doubt that US babies ultimately add to crime. Sweet little American-born babies turn into criminals more often than immigrants do. Statistically, immigrants offer less crime than natural Americans. However, as Joe notes —- if numbers of people increase, crime NUMBERS increase, but not necessarily the RATE. And while 2022 went up, not down, currently 2023 is down, the participation rate has basically doubled over 2022, but this too could, and probably will, change a year out. Just not as radical. FYI, violent crime is down for 2024 too according to early estimates.
Crime in the US is not driven by immigrants, nor the undocumented. It’s driven more by natural Americans and the economy. There’s some common sense behind this. If you are an immigrant, legal, you probably have more fear of the law, given deportation, that an American. That’s one reason for sanctuary cities, to lessen the fear so immigrants will work with police instead of avoiding them to avoid deportation.
A good economy lifts all boats but crime is one boat it lowers. Always has been. Statistically speaking. The pandemic mucked with crime, immigration, supply/demand, births, deaths, and the economy — big time. After it was declared over, the ripple effects continue, some to this day. How else could you keep blaming Trump’s failures on Covid?
DAs letting folks slide, I am with Frank Reagan, take it to Albany and pass law. Until then, throw the book at any and all criminals. Or show them you don’t have the budget, so you must cut costs by cutting arrests and this is how you prioritize that. Otherwise, arrest em all, toss the legal book at them, and let the judge determine punishment.
As to bail-less bonds, look at the facts. Under the current system, the rich pay bond, the poor can’t and go to jail for the same crimes. Is that fair? Is that right? Is that cost-effective? Now that does not mean you let Hannibal Lector out on a bail-less bond, but non-violent crimes with high potential of folks making the court date — why not? The rich are out, why disadvantage the poor.
The FBI does NOT SCREW UP!
This another ploy to run Election interference for the the Demorats!
Hunter Biden Lap Top!
Not only Dropping the ball but kicking it at the Assassination attempt!
The FBI is definitely one of the Puppet masters involved with the Elite
controlling this country.
Remember the first BUSH, head of the FBI for how long?
The FBI is run by a Republican.
This reveal hurts Biden/Harris.
The rest is off topic. Hunter, really?
Biden is NOT President; HE WAS executed on 1/17/21. That idiot playing him are several things, avatars, body doubles. That mask is telling every time he turns his head. Then we see the mask bunching up. Numbers can be fixed which is what the Democrats and the Deep State have done. Some Republicans are Rino’s. One thing for sure is there is a ton of crime, probably even more out there done by all kinds of people. There should not be any crime, but greed is usually behind it all. Selfishness is next to that. Controlling nuts are next and then the insane behind that. There is no Golden rule anymore. There is not much kindness either. There isn’t much belief in a higher power either. Too many people want only their way with no consideration of others’ feelings. I have even had to calm my own self down about some nasty stuff so I don’t fall deep into the craziness. It can be upsetting at times. Kamala was also executed just about the same time Biden was. Hillary was, too, Bill and Chelsea and so many more. I actually watched the hanging of Hillary. The FBI, CIA plus all the rest of the alphabet agencies are all Deep State and involved in the human trafficking industry. All documented and done by the Jag at Gitmo. More of this information plus more is coming out nearly every day now. Those websites can’t all be wrong. My belief is crime is up – way up. Horrible and terrible crimes. That’s how I feel!
I think it’s laudatory that Joe provides a forum for the insane. I just hope he responds with a red flag summons so the guns can be removed.
Biden is President, will be so until next January. My proof is journalists, government workers, and my own two eyes. AI ain’t that good.
The FBI numbers come from a Republican, he may be a RINO but he ain’t no liberal. Not to mention that only a dumb shit would believe this benefits Biden, Harris, or liberals.
Crime has been going down and is definingly down in 2024 and 2023. Just read the FBI stats or continue to spew dog-doo.
You are not the boss of my nuts, you can’t control nuts, they must be free, free, free at last.
Some Republicans are RINOs, some Democrats too. Some Republicans are crazy, what are you?
Neither Kamala, Hilary ,Bill, or Joe have been executed, nor anyone who is living.
The FBI and CIA do not traffic humans and they don’t document ANYTHING stated above. Nothing.
“Those websites can’t all be wrong.” The ole “those websites” Yes, Virginia, the internet does lie. Check your submissions at the door.
If looks could kill, they probably will
In games without frontiers
War without tears
Let’s talk issues, facts, stats, and figures and leave the attacks and crazy at the door.
S Danger – more like the ones YOU want to kill and probably will!
You are absolutely nuts and should be put away! I do NOT lie. You do! I do a ton of research. You listen to MSM that are lying through their teeth. You do not know what is real and what is not. All because you always have to be right, isn’t that correct Frank, Danger man? I will stake my life on the fact that Biden, Harris and the others I said are dead. I will go one step further and stake YOUR life on that! I still say you want to kill me from your other post. You plainly said it. Shows what a felon you really are. YOU talk issues, facts, stats, and figures and you are the crazy one. Looney tunes crazy! If you don’t like what I said, come get me, coward! In the meantime, I know some Marines that would love to have YOUR URL to get YOU! Coward! Crazy, insane coward! I dare you – come to my door! COWARD!
Are you threatening me again, this time with life in prison? Your ton of research lies. You lie. I think it’s fantasitc that Joe provides a forum for the crazies. I pray he gets that red flag summons to get the crazy’s guns.
Biden is President, will be so until next January. My proof is journalists, government workers, and my own two eyes. AI ain’t that good.
The FBI numbers come from a Republican, he may be a RINO but he ain’t no liberal. Not to mention that only a dumb shit would believe this benefits Biden, Harris, or liberals.
Crime has been going down and is definingly down in 2024 and 2023. Just read the FBI stats or continue to spew dog-doo.
You are not the boss of my nuts, you can’t control nuts, they must be free, free, free at last.
Some Republicans are RINOs, some Democrats too. Some Republicans are crazy, what are you?
Neither Kamala, Hilary ,Bill, or Joe have been executed, nor anyone who is living.
The FBI and CIA do not traffic humans and they don’t document ANYTHING stated above. Nothing.
Let’s talk issues, facts, stats, and figures and leave the attacks and crazy at the door.
But you can’t, all you got is personal attacks and crazy. Lots of crazy.
Comprehension is the hobgoblin of small minds.
Projection will be your epitaph.
The phrase that your paranoia leads you to see as a threat is a commentary on war and diplomacy being like children’s games. In this case, I meant it as a commentary on our conversation. It was not intended as a threat to scare you.
Let’s talk issues, the personal stuff you cough up is a snore.
It’s YOUR paranoia not mine because you refuse to listen to reason and the truth in God’s name. I believe you are a part of the Deep State. Your comments lead that way. You into child trafficking, too?
Projecting at the midnight hour.
So defensive.
Let’s talk issues, getting personal is so boring. What a stupid question.
R U still beating your dog?
And eating him?
How about your cat, what’s it’s name, Tasty?
This is so sophomoric, either issues or nothing at all.
stranger danger, Chris Wray is not a Republican. He was originally appointed by Trump, but he is simply a self-serving, greedy liar and cheat. He even steals from the federal government for family trips on a government owned Gulfstream. 10 weekend family trips last year and a half dozen so far this year (bus ski season is still ahead). A G5 costs $4,000 an hour to operate. Wray’s weekend trips cost $16,000 in air travel including pilot hotel stays. He only has to reimburse a single coach fare equivalent ($275). Would you trust anything this guy says?
For the FBI, you are correct. Christie suggested to Trump and Trump put him in the FBI position he holds today. Biden did not fire them man as is our way, not yours. Previously Bush put him in as Assistant Attorney General in charge of the Criminal Division of the Justice Department so he’s been kicking around the upper tiers of justice for some time. As a Republican. Wray is still a Republican and a member of the Federalist Society.
Since 2011, FBI upper management MUST use government planes for all travel. Personal trips on government planes are to be reimbursed at market prices. Wray testified he did all this, and he did. Hawley had his head up his ass. These are the rules and seems to make common sense not to charge government prices or raise the guy’s salary to cover the delta tween govt. and commercial prices. *https://www.newsweek.com/fact-check-fbi-chief-chris-wray-required-travel-government-plane-1760661*
Folks, facts are our friends and we fact-check a lot.
Yes, Trump hires a lot of criminals, the best in the world says he, and has more administration convictions than Nixon. But Wray is loyal to the Constitution, not Trump who cannot spell constitution. But you offer no proof that he’s “a self-serving, greedy liar and cheat,” except what I have just shed some light on as to Hawley’s stupid fucking lies that you accepted. Hawley is the liar, you need to check his work, always.
SD, if Trump hires criminals, then he needs to hire YOU!
You say IF Trump hires criminals. IF? I’m sorry. He hired them. They ARE criminals. Period.
Why would Trump hire me? I am not a criminal, I have never been arrested. Close, but no cigar.
I should clarify, Trump does not hire criminals; at least that I can prove. Trump hires a lot of people who become criminals while working for Trump. Here’s a list from April 2024, there’s been a few more since then. That’s eight with prison time, 12 indicted. That’s just his administration’s highest levels. *https://www.axios.com/2024/03/07/trump-associates-prison-sentence-crimes-list*
The 2020 election scam indictments and the ongoing federal cases not included. Remember, his legal team pled guilty to rigging the 2020 election and will testify against Trump. They are not included. Hey, Rudy just lost his Trump campaign fees and the New York apartment, Giuliani must also turn over a collection of several watches, including ones given to him by European presidents after the September 11, 2001, attacks; a signed Joe DiMaggio jersey and other sports memorabilia; and a 1980 Mercedes once owned by the Hollywood star Lauren Bacall. Additionally, the judge ordered that Giuliani turn over his television, items of furniture and jewelry.
The Florida condo and his world series rings are still pending.
Yes, innocent they are. Remember where the buck stops for Presidents of character.
So, you can call me criminal, you lie. And you can absolve Trump but the crimes, adjudications, and punishments are in the court records.
Your mentioning figures and falsehoods seems ironic and not funny irony. Crime is a serious issue requiring serious attention. The Republican Candidate has been weaponizing crime figures for his own political ends. While campaigning under a dark cloud of personal criminality. As new allegations spring up every week he himself is the most notorious one person crime spree. You can’t deny he has broken the law more than once. Crimes he has been caught and charged with to date are few out of the many crimes in his life time. The majority of his crimes were buried with payoffs, intimidation, coverup deals.
He has successfully duped millions out of their saving, their honesty, their vote, their intellectual integrity, everything they once held dear. The sad part is, Republicans en mass willingly hand over their dignity in sacrifice on Trump’s demand.
What a sorry business Trump sold you all. Tragically his mess is not limited to your Republican Party. His virus genus has spread its infectious crippling contagion throughout America. Because almost half of the population in this nation and land have contracted his virus’ symptoms the coming election can not escape untarnished.
Party loyalty does not equate to national loyalty. Loyalty to all that is best for all of us preempts Party nominees.
Democracy thrives when all ideologies find a place where no one forces their own opinion above all others. Democracy by definition abhor would be strongmen autocrat bullies.
Trump speaks like an autocrat bully who has.no respect for the U.S. Constitution. Nor does Trump understand what the President’s constitutional role is relative to the other two government branches.
Larry, you say you are a student of American History. If you have learned anything from the past including presidents, it’s puzzling that the abundance of history Trump is disrespecting does not seem to concern you.
Democracy is on trial with you on the pollcal right sit on the prosecution’s side. You lambast every opinion which does not pander to your personal world view. Maybe that unbendingly stiff and uncompromising stand has worked for you. However, attitudes such as yours work against Democracy’s most elementary principles. Third world nations’ uncivilized social underpinnings are a better fit for your opinion than the American Democracy form of governance.
You and Trump are in general agreement preferring dictatorial autocracy as best for your own self interests. Although, might makes right ultimately won’t work indefinitely. Eventually the mighty fall because strength in human terms wanes and stronger contenders come along and knock you off your high opinion.
You have heard what follows when pride is all consuming in a person’s life. Well, count your good days now. Doom, you may wish for one or two good days.
Win or loose. Trump plans harm to America, Our Democracy, and by
transmission every individual person in this country. How can that not be a fact.
If Trump has power he will have to be restrained to operate between the guardrails.
Trump is this country’s worst nightmare since our Civil War.