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European Union to Ban Russian Oil – But Wait…

European Union to Ban Russian Oil – But Wait…

The propaganda effect of this is huge, the EU has announced, in an emergency session, a ban on Russian Oil.

But not really. They have agreed to ban the import of Russian oil that comes in by sea, which is about 2/3 of their oil. They will not ban what comes through the pipelines.

Next, they say they “effectively cut around 90% of oil imports from Russia to the EU by the end of the year.”

OK, so they are banning Russian oil to remove funding for the war in Ukraine, but they won’t do it until the end of the year, which is likely to be long after the war is over. And of course, when the war is over they don’t have to do it anymore.

Europe imports about 2.4 million barrels of oil from Russia per day, which is valued at $288 million per day. Cutting either 2/3 or 90% (depending on who you believe) would indeed be a substantial hit to Russia’s cash flow.

But I’m calling b&^s&t on this.

First of all, Europe will have to replace about 1.6 million barrels of oil per day.

Where will this come from? The U.S. doesn’t have it, Joe Biden has been steadily cutting our oil production. Saudi Arabia has declined to participate. They are happy with the new prices and a want a stable market at the new price. More production on their part would bring the price down.

Hopefully, Biden isn’t stupid enough to make deals with Venezuela or Iran. That would collapse any chance of reform in those countries.

If this does indeed happen, PB contributor George McMillan suggests that this will become a simple “laundering” scheme. That Russian oil will arrive at some intermediate location, and Europe will simply buy it from there.

And by the way, you don’t see them banning Russian natural gas yet, which is far more important to them.

As you can see in the chart below, the European Union countries averages 57% dependence on outside sources. A real, actual ban on Russian energy would cripple the EU, shut down their major industries and have people freezing come next Fall and Winter.

Bottom line, the EU has written a check that will likely never have to be cashed, and that will likely bounce if they try.

I realize the EU has to appease the protesters and keep the appearances up on supporting Ukraine, but I find their posturing and propaganda plays distasteful.

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14 Comments

  1. Rat Wrangler

    Russia has huge gold deposits, including the Olimpiada mine, the third-largest gold mine in the world. They are also a major producer of diamonds and have large deposits of rare earth minerals. Ending their oil trade might not be as damaging to Russia as our politicians might think. With one move, they could essentially wipe out the value of the diamond trade by dumping huge numbers of very high-quality stones on the market.

    • Joe Gilbertson

      Gold would not produce revenue so much so fast, and dumping diamonds would destroy the market but not help them much. Oil is a primary source of foreign currency and income for Russia.

      But you are right that it is not hurting them so much. They are self sufficient in food and (obviously) energy, so no one will starve and their internal industries will hum along. Plus their agreements with China will get them most of their high tech.

  2. Andy

    WHEN are you going to stop lying about what Joe Biden is doing?

    ” Joe Biden has been steadily cutting our oil production.”

    Biden took office in January 2021. Since then US oil production has grown from 11 million BBD to 11.9 million BBD

    All you have to do is look up the FACTS:

    https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W

    • frank stetson

      +1 Andy. Joe is not good on things with numbers. You know, $$$$, statistics, economics….not good for Joe. It’s amazing how easy it is to shoot holes in his thinking, or lack thereof.

      He’s been told what you told him a number of times. And more. But there’s numbers involved and Joe, numbers, not goo :>) He just puts his head a little deeper up Trump’s ass believing in the Trump sheeples version of the economy. Your picture probably won’t even help.

      What you could have added was that in 2020, we were producing 13 million BBD, our pre-pandemic high from the same wells as today. We even have more wells today, additional leases yet to be drilled, etc.

      But Joe even declares it a Trumpian victory to be energy-independent when we still imported oil (just exported more), but more important —– it was a loss of demand due to the pandemic that caused us to cancel foreign imports. No demand, no imports. But Joe only hears what Trump tells him, not capable of thinking outside the Trumplicant box.

      • Adam

        It’s amazing how that the Biden cult is afraid of Trump. And some fools can’t see how president dementia is doing unrepairable damage to our country.

        • frank stetson

          I think it’s you that are afraid of the truth clinging to your vision of the future being the past and accepting all the Trump lies that support that myth. How many of you grasp at The Big Lie as your big truth and reason for going on?

          Trump spent us into the poor house and poor Joe has been trying to dig his way out ever since.

          I fear not Trump, I do fear Trumpism and what it is doing to America whether delivered by Trump, DeSanctimonious, Abot, Cruz, or any of these other fools.

          And if Trump didn’t ruin America, Biden can’t hold a candle to that.

          • Joe Gilbertson

            I bet you are familiar with Rules for Radicals. Your propaganda BS certainly follows them.

          • Music man

            I hope that trumpism , whatever that is, takes over the country

      • Joe Gilbertson

        Joe G. is an expert with numbers. Joe B. is not.

        The rest of your post is a jumbled mess.

        • Frank stetson

          Which bs fits rules?

          Jumbled mess? Or incompetent reading and comprehension skills? Andy didn’t take me apart with a single chart. BUSTED.

    • Joe Gilbertson

      Your charts and the “FACTS” seem to support the notion that Biden has cut oil production is not allowing it to grow. Even from your own chart it is clear that Biden’s production is nowhere near Trump’s production.

      • frank stetson

        Biden cut oil production? Where? Cuz the Fed lands under lease are not even drilled yet….as of January of this year, Biden was outpacing Trump for leases on Federal lands. He set the record for largest Gulf drill site. He has leased millions of acres. In 2021, he produced about the same amount as Trump did in 2020, just a shade lower. Keystone was not for US production. His first EO cancelling leases was struck down. Not only are you ignorant of the facts, more than willing to spew disinformation at will as long as “your guys” have told you, and unable to just open your freakin eyes and look —- even when directed like Andy did. Which you have seen before, I showed you…..

        How a President stops oil production is beyond me. Yes, he has some control on leases on Federal Land, but come on —– you expected a giant oil boom there in less than 18 months after Trump? That’s ridiculous.

        Meanwhile, since Presidents are totally responsible for US oil production, the picture Andy showed you, the BIG picture clearing show that the oil production slump started in 1Q2020 firmly on Trump’s watch, or blind eye, and not on Biden’s watch.

        You own it, drill it, and rotate.

        Nice how you can double-down on stupid……..practice makes perfect I guess. Come on back, I got some more snarky just waiting for your three-peat.

        • Joe Gilbertson

          Frank, I’m sorry that you can’t figure this out. It is obvious to anyone who reads the news.

          • Frank stetson

            Joe, as a Trump sheeple, you are deluding yourself and spreading disinformation to others.

            We showed you the numbers

            The US oul slowdown started one year before Biden on Trump’s watch.

            Biden has outpaced Trump on leases including the biggest gulf lease in history. ,

            Biden’s first year US oul production was higher than Trumps last year.

            The E IA provides those facts. What news denies the EIA facts? And why do you believe and spread those lies when the EIA has shown you different.

            It’s not my fault you misread the line chart. The data table shows your error.

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