As NATO expands, there is bound to be a greater diversity of opinions among the members. The most obvious example is Turkey – which has almost reached the level of a rogue state within the Alliance. The person responsible is President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Turkey’s once close ties to the United States and NATO have been drifting away over the course of Erdoğan’s 10-year reign. Coincidental to Turkey’s drift away has been Erdoğan’s shift from democracy to authoritarian rule.
Erdoğan just won reelection to his third five-year term – and that is not good for NATO or the United States. As Turkey’s ties to the United States have weakened, Erdoğan has built a stronger alliance with Russia and its dictator President Vladimir Putin.
Recently, both Finland and Sweden have applied for membership in NATO. This is a huge blow to Putin’s efforts to keep NATO nations from bordering on Mother Russia. It was his pretext for invading Ukraine before it would wind up a NATO nation.
Under pressure from his NATO allies, Erdoğan has agreed to admit Finland, but he so far opposes the addition of Sweden – and any new members to NATO must be approved by every current member. That would also create a likely barrier for Ukraine to eventually join NATO – as it has already expressed a desire to do.
Had Erdoğan been defeated, the new president would have approved the inclusion of Sweden – and most likely Ukraine in the future.
Even as NATO and the United States have sanctioned Putin over his invasion of Ukraine, Erdoğan has not only maintained friendly ties width Putin, but continues to trade with Russia – undermining the NATO sanctions. In addition, he has purchased Russian missile defense systems – which undermines the interoperability of the Alliances defense network.
In a number of world conflicts, Erdoğan has intervened in opposition to NATO’s objectives and interests – including in Syria, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh.
The reelection of Erdoğan is also a blow to Turkey’s democratic movement. In amassing power, he has brutally cracked down on dissent, jailed journalists and curbed judicial independence, and restricted civil liberties – the principle democratic hallmarks of the NATO alliance.
Despite Erdoğan’s power to influence the outcome of elections, it was close. Almost half of the people of Turkey wanted Erdoğan out in favor of his pro-democracy opponent. This means that Erdoğan does not have a mandate from the people – and could suggest growing dissension in the future.
The ties to NATO and the United States are strained but not broken. Turkey holds a strategic position in the Middle East. It is still an important trading partner – and it hosts an American military presence, which is believed to include nuclear weapons. Turkey’s position on the Black Sea is critical since both Russia and Ukraine (pre-Russian hegemony) comprise most of the Sea’s shoreline.
Erdoğan sees himself as a broker on the international stage, but is he tilting too much in favor of the authoritarians and away from democratic states that comprise NATO? Regardless, his reelection was not good news for NATO nor the United States.
So, there ‘tis.