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Does Trump Have the Right of First Refusal on the GOP Nomination?

Does Trump Have the Right of First Refusal on the GOP Nomination?

Democrats and most Republicans seem to believe that the 2024 presidential nomination belongs to Trump if he chooses to run.  Delaying his decision is said to be keeping all the potential presidential aspirants on the sideline.

There are three questions yet unanswered.  Will Trump decide to run?  Can he secure the GOP nomination in 2024?  Would he win the General Election?

Will Trump decide to run?

I believe he would like to run. But he would have to weigh a lot of issues before making that decision –some issues that are yet unknown or unresolved.

One issue would be his age and health.  Obviously, he would have to remain healthy and vital.  In view of the success of President Biden that issue may be eliminated – unless Biden is incapable of completing his four-year term.  Then Trump’s age would work against him. It is impossible to prognosticate on that issue.  Only time will tell.

Also weighing in on Trump’s decision to run is his political health.  What will be the result of the many law cases winding their way through the courts?  Some of the charges have to do with his pre-presidency business days.  While Trump has not been indicted in any of the criminal cases, his top financial guy, Allen Weisselberg, has – and that is VERY close to the top of the Trump organization and to Trump himself.

Democrats in Congress are going after Trump’s political hide with two investigations. 

Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s faux bipartisan Select Committee on the January 6th Capitol Hill riot is hoping to snare Trump and Republican leaders in as participants in an imaginary attempted coup.  This could backfire, however. And it is not likely to have much effect on the 2022 midterms elections since Trump is not on the ballot.  Trying to use Trump to smear all Republicans is not likely to work.  It did not in 2020 when Trump was the top of the ticket. And the GOP did very well down the ballot.

In a parallel effort, House Democrats are investigating Trump’s business interests.  That investigation gained steam when the Justice Department reversed its ruling. It now says that Trump’s tax returns must by turned over to the Congress.  There is no doubt that this is a fishing expedition.  However, as a longtime New York City real estate developer, I would be surprised that there were not at least minimal violations of the law – which Democrats will inflate into capital crimes in the court-of-public-opinion.  There are also things that could be embarrassing to Trump – or at least made to look embarrassing.

Since Congress cannot charge or indict anyone for crimes – that is the job of the Justice Department—the investigations in Congress are just exercises in politics in the dangerous court-of-public-opinion — that too often produces vigilante justice based on propaganda rather than rules-of-evidence. 

Apart from age and scandals, Trump may just not want to do it. Especially if it appears that he would not likely succeed.

Can Trump secure the nomination for 2024?

Trump would have to weigh the possibility of his winning the nomination.  It is far from assured – even though many perceive it that way at this point.  This could be a major decision for Trump and anyone who is willing to take him on in a primary.

We must remember that most Republican voters in 2016 preferred a candidate other than Trump.  He built momentum with approximately 25 to 30 percent of the vote against 15 other candidates who divided the rest of the vote.  He did not start winning a majority in the primaries until he was virtually assured of the nomination.

The so-called Trump base is 30 to 40 percent of the Republican primary voters.  Trump supporters most likely inflated those numbers to show strength. And, ironically, by Democrats and the media who want to claim that the entire GOP is a Trump cult.  I would estimate the Trump base – those who would not consider any other candidate – at more like 10 percent of Republican voters.  The majority of folks who cast a ballot for Trump in 2016 and 2020 saw him as the better option.  They voted against the Democrats more than for Trump – something he never understood.

If Trump were to face one or two strong GOP contenders in 2024 – and there are a number of them — I believe that Trump would not prevail in the primaries – and would start losing in the early contests.  The Democrats are guilty of wishful thinking if they truly believe that most GOP voters are blindly loyal to Trump – or any politician – over the all-important issues.  I do not personally know a single Trump voter who would abandon the Republican ticket in 2024 if Trump was not at the top.

Would Trump win the General Election in 2024?

I cannot make a prognostication with any level of confidence at this time.  I do know that if the choice on the ballot was between Trump and any of the likely Democrat candidates – with a continuation of the left-wing disastrous policies – I would, for the third time, cast my ballot for Trump.  If not the happiest choice, it is not a difficult one.

It is not about the man – and his flawed personality – but about the greater administration and the empowerment of Republicans in Congress – conservative Republican values being enacted by many more officials than Trump, himself.

A lot depends on how many folks like me are out there.  I do know people who voted for Trump once … and against once.  Some have told me that they voted for Trump twice.  What should concern the greater Republican Party is that I have never come across any voter who did not vote for Trump in 2016 and 2020 – or even voted for Trump in 2016 and against in 2020 – who will vote for him in the future.  There is just no way of measuring how many of them there are.

Summary

If I were to place odds on the three questions, I would give Trump only a 40 percent chance he will run.  If he did, only a 30 percent chance he would win the nomination. And a less than 50 percent chance he would win the General Election if he was the nominee. 

This commentary reflects my total rejections of the left’s mendacious narrative that the GOP is some sort of cult-of-personality.  I understand why they proffer that cow dung.  It is because they cannot win on the issues.  They have to engage in demonization and character assassination of an entire political party. And they can do so as long as they have the advantage of a corrupt and biased so-called news media giving false credibility to their political narratives.

So, there ‘tis.

About The Author

Larry Horist

So,there‘tis… The opinions, perspectives and analyses of Larry Horist Larry Horist is a businessman, conservative writer and political strategist with an extensive background in economics and public policy. Clients of his consulting firm have included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman. He has served as a consultant to the Nixon White House and travelled the country as a spokesman for President Reagan’s economic reforms. He has testified as an expert witness before numerous legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress. Horist has lectured and taught courses at numerous colleges and universities, including Harvard, Northwestern, DePaul universities, Hope College and his alma mater, Knox College. He has been a guest on hundreds of public affairs talk shows, and hosted his own program, “Chicago In Sight,” on WIND radio. Horist was a one-time candidate for mayor of Chicago and served as Executive Director of the City Club of Chicago, where he led a successful two-year campaign to save the historic Chicago Theatre from the wrecking ball. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries appear frequently on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He is praised by readers for his style, substance and sense of humor. According to one reader, Horist is the “new Charles Krauthammer.” He is actively semi-retired in Boca Raton, Florida where he devotes his time to writing. So, there ‘tis is Horist’s signature sign off.

39 Comments

  1. Joe S Bruder

    I’ll do you one better – the odds that Trump will run are ZERO. Trump will be in jail. Yes, he probably can still run from jail, but I think even the most sycophantic Republicans will balk at selecting him as the nominee. Add to that, his last Nuremberg-style rallies turned out to be more like comedy night at the old-folks home, with Trump turning in a pathetic performance, and most people leaving early.

    Pelosi is not using Trump to tar Republicans – they are doing it quite nicely on their own. I haven’t checked the exact count lately, but only about 30 will admit that Biden won. They continue telling the Big Lie, and are scared to death that some of the investigations will point back at them. McCarthy tried to appoint two active participants in the Jan 6th attempted coup to the Select Committee to investigate (themselves and) Trump’s actions leading up to it, and Pelosi rightly vetoed that idea. If nothing else, those two could have (and probably will be) compelled to testify. But McCarthy could have left three Republicans on the Committee, but withdrew them in a huff.

    Guiliani, the middle-man for Trump’s extortion/bribery of Ukraine, has been crying lately about being broke and Trump hanging him out to dry. Guess what – when Trump did that to Cohen, it did not go so well. Guiliani knows all the details about Trump’s treason, and Trump is all but daring him to tell his story.

    Add to all of that, Republicans have another problem – COVID. Republicans pushed against the mask mandate and vaccinations from the very beginning, and it has now become a pandemic of the stupid… I mean, Republicans. People being hospitalized are now almost 100% not-vaxxed. Doctors are reporting that many of dying peoples last words were “I wish I had gotten the vaccine”, which is code for, “why did I listen to my stupid Republican brother-in-law and his cockamamie conspiracy theories”. In any case, DeSantis, Abbott, and a whole host of Republican governors will be directly responsible for an additional 2M or so unnecessary deaths, and Republican Congress-folk will take a hit too. Besides losing 2M voters, a lot of people are going to turn against the Republican Party. So, no chance in hell could Trump win, and a lot of Republicans will get voted out of office too.

    And you know, you keep repeating “conservative values” while speaking about the Republican Party. The “conservative” thing to do would have been to encourage everyone to wear masks, get vaccinated, and social distance in the face of a devastating pandemic, not hide it. Anything else is just irresponsible. The party of “fiscal conservatism” just had the slowest GDP growth over a 4-year Presidential term since the Great Depression (and if you look at Presidential terms since 1960, the economy ALWAYS does better under Democrats and loses under Republicans, the only exception being Reagan who TIED with Jimmy Carter). Trump took the longest streak of job growth EVER, and broke it, leaving a recession for Biden to fix (who has done very well at fixing Trump’s royal fuckups). Republicans couldn’t pass an infrastructure bill for the 4 years Trump was President, even when they had a majority. The only thing they did pass was a give-away to the rich, which to me, is the very opposite of “conservative” – free money to the people who needed it the least. “Conservative” is investing in workers and technology, which drives future growth. and that ain’t it. Even taxing the rich puts money back into the economy, which is what allows the rich to get rich in the first place. Republicans have been blocking climate change research and legislation – which, even if you don’t believe in climate change (or are kow-towing to energy companies who don’t want people to know they are at the root of the problem), at least the prudent (i.e. “conservative”) thing to do would be to at least study the situation and put some money into the problems as insurance in case you’re wrong. And why so many laws to prevent people from voting? Is it “conservative” to only let the Republicans (who have mostly been fuck-ups while in office) vote? You can count the number of real verified voter fraud on one or maybe two hands. A true Conservative would at least follow the spirit of the Constitution and encourage everyone to vote. It’s finally happened – the Democrats are the “true conservatives”, but the Republicans have become the Party of “anti-Constitutional fiscally-irresponsible useless whiners”.

    • Dan Tyree

      Don’t worry Joe. You aren’t the only asshole named joe that’s retarded. You could be in the White House someday. Just pick a token ho and say stupid shit. Our country was much better off with Trump. But I will NEVER obey any laws or orders from the commiecrats. Vaccination or whatever. The fucking commiecrats colluded with the Chinese to bring the virus to America. And brainwashed morons like you swallow their shit

      • Anonymous

        The Chinese need to pay for their Treachery! The WUHOO Flu was created at the Wuhan Lab in a test tube! It’s almost funny, that no info is available as to how many “Chinos” have the Virus!!

        • Trump DENFENDER

          Thanking you for supporting the Donald J. Trump, the greatest President and Chieftan of the United States of America, and to the Republican praty which it stands united against all government foreign or domesticated.

          The leading corporations in co-operatives must establish the dominant position of the poor populist and the new lower middle-class populists in these bodies, with the old lower middle-class and the upper middle-class populists – whether old or new – as the supplementary force. Only thus can unity between the poor and middle-class be attained.

          Moreover, the corporate co-operatives can also be consolidated, production can be expanded and the transformation of the entire countryside be correctly accomplished in accordance with the Republican party policy. Otherwise, unity between the middle-class and poor people cannot be attained, the corporate co-operatives cannot be consolidated, production cannot be expanded, and the American Greatness transformation of the entire countryside cannot be achieved.

      • Joe S Bruder

        Fine, don’t get your vaccination, no skin off my back. Don’t forget to utter your famous last words, “I really owned the libtards (cough, cough)” right before you croak.

        I don’t know where you live, but if you’re not already vaccinated (and you don’t strike me as the type to wear a mask), you will almost certainly get COVID-delta. After that, depending on your age and health, you’ve got a 2-5% chance of dying. Doesn’t matter if you already had COVID already, there’s no natural immunity for Delta variant. If you have a wife and children, you’ll almost certainly give it to them. Statistically, you’ll infect 9 of your neighbors, coworkers, and family members who aren’t vaccinated (instead of the 4 infected by early variants of COVID, even before the vax). But you will have “owned” the libs…except they’ll be alive and healthy, and you might be dead.

        And depending on your conspiracy theory of the day, if the Chinese really did release COVID as an attack on the US (whether or not Dems had anything do to with it), isn’t the patriotic response to fight back and get the vaccination? Fine, we’ll call it the Trump vaccine, if that’s what it takes, I don’t care. Don’t call me a moron until you’ve gotten your vaccination.

        • larry Horist

          Joe S Broder. You are spreading outrageously false information. No one vaccinated or not is “certain” to get Covid of any strain. In fact, when the Pandemic is in the rearview mirror, approximately 85 to 90 percent of Americans will not have contracted the virus. While the Delta variant is more transmissible, it is not more deadly. That does not mean I oppose vaccinations. Several times I have used my commentaries to encourage vaccination. And if you dig in the statistics instead of only consuming what you hear in the media, the liberal demographics are among the highest anti Vaxxers — blacks, Hispanics, young folks. So you need not look forward to the extinction of conservatives…lol.

          • Trump DENFENDER

            You should be more faithful and patriotic to support Donald J. Trump, Presiding over the United States of America, and to the flag.

          • JoE S Bruder

            I did not say it’s more deadly. COVID, regardless of the variant, is deadly enough. It is about twice as virulent, and is swarming through the ranks of the unvaccinated. If you don’t believe me, go on the World-o-meter and look up the graphs. In most red states, they have a big upturn in COVID cases and deaths, and it’s primarily the unvaccinated. I made no false assertions. Based on his comments, I made some assumptions about Mr. Tyree – he’s not vaccinated, doesn’t wear a mask, and is not limiting his contacts with other like-minded people. He confirmed his vax status, and everything in every one of his posts confirms the rest. If he’s in a state that is still promoting “personal freedom” instead of “protect your health and that of others”, he will almost certainly catch the virus. The rest of it is just my way of explaining the consequences of him being an idiot. Truthfully, I’d miss him – he’s a prime example of the typical conservative Republican letter writers that you usually get. We liberals can make fun of that all day…

            I also did not mention anything about Republicans going extinct, but now that you mention it… Although the statistics are evolving as the delta variant gets more press, last I looked some 55% of Republicans were saying they would not get the vaccination (compared to about 5% of Democrats). There are roughly 100M people not vaccinated, and 2% of them could die if they don’t change their tunes. Look at what you just said – probably 85-90% of Americans won’t get the virus. OK, 15% of 350M is over 50 million people, and 2% of that is a million. Even by your numbers (which I think is low because of Delta and non-vaxxers), there’s another half-million deaths coming.

            Want to make Joe Biden look bad? Fine, he can take it… but you have to die to do it.

            …and it’s “Bruder”, not “Broder”

        • Dan Tyree

          Joe I’m not going to die unless it’s my time to go. Give us a vaccine that’s FDA approved and I’ll think about it

          • larry Horist

            Joe S BRUDER … You are hopeless. You now say that you did not say the Delta Variant was twice as deadly … just more virulent. You repeated that again in your latest bs. I will save you the trip to the dictionary. Virulent: “(of a disease or poison) extremely severe or harmful in its effects. “a virulent strain of influenza” You are saying the Delta Strain is twice as severe and harmful in its effects. One of the harmful effects is … death. Delta is more infectious and contagious, but NOT twice as severe and twice as harmful in its effect. And, it is totally dishonest to say that anyone will certainly catch Covid. The statistics are clear. Approximately 85 percent of Americans will not get it. The total so far is at 35 million who have contracted it since the onset — just a bit over 10 percent of the population. AND … you are saying that of the 100 million unvaccinated, 2 to 3% of them will die? That assumes that they will all get Covid. Based on the stats, maybe 10 percent or so will contract Covid — and possibly 2 to3% of the sick will die. And even that is unlikely because the death rate continues to decline even among the unvaccinated. Have you been hitting the cider? You latest screed surpasses all the nonsense you have written in the past. Consider your grasp on facts and issues — and your lack of deductive reasoning skills — you really should not be so arrogant.

          • Joe S Bruder

            Ex-Newsmax Host Who Attacked ‘Lying Freak’ Dr. Fauci Over ‘Scamdemic’ Has Died Of COVID

            Get vaccinated, Dick Farrel told friends before he died.
            headshot

            By Mary Papenfuss

            Former Newsmax host and right-wing Florida radio commentator Dick Farrel — who mocked vaccines, the “scamdemic” and “lying freak” Dr. Anthony Fauci — has died of COVID-19.

            A very different Farrel, 65, told friends to get vaccinated, as he struggled with the virus. He died Wednesday, WPTV reported

            “COVID took one of my best friends! RIP Dick Farrel. He is the reason I took the shot,” Farrel’s close friend Amy Leigh Hair wrote on Facebook. “He texted me and told me to ‘Get it!’ He told me this virus is no joke and he said, ‘I wish I had gotten it!’”

    • Trump DENFENDER

      Thank you for supporting Donald J. Trump, President and Chieftan of the United States of America.

      • Joe S Bruder

        Reply to Larry, not the bot… since Larry’s post doesn’t show a “reply” button.

        Virulent is also a synonym for highly infectious, and that’s what I meant.

        If you look at new cases, they were declining until about Jun 20th, and then started to climb. The numbers have doubled roughly every 2 weeks. I know exponential growth when I see it. It’s about the same rate of growth as the last few months of Trump’s Presidency, when he was completely ignoring COVID and the number of deaths went from 100,000 to 500,000.

        In the same time period, Florida has gone from 1000 cases a day to as much as 16000 per day, thanks to your own Trumpian leadership. That’s doubling almost weekly. The only way it’s going to turn around is for people to get vaccinated, and roughly half of the Republicans state that they won’t do that. You stated “the liberal demographics are among the highest anti Vaxxers — blacks, Hispanics, young folks.” Some of them are scared of the vax, and some are wary because of prior experimentation of minorities, and some are just having a hard time getting the vax because of logistics. They are, in general, at least trying to protect themselves with masks and social distancing, and many will get the vax eventually. That’s a far cry from 55% of Republicans who just say they won’t get it because Trump and his minions in Congress have convinced them not to.

        The total number of cases is already 36million, roughly 10% of the population. What makes you think COVID won’t take another 50 million, if they won’t get vaccinated and subscribe to the Tyree’s “God will provide” attitude?

        • larry Horist

          Joe S BRUDER I gave you a definition of virulent. I did check quickly a could more …. “The definition of virulent is something very dangerous or harmful.” “An example of virulent is an aggressive and deadly disease.” I suspect you find some reference to an infectious disease in the dusty corners of lexicography … and if you do, you are welcome to hang your dunce cap on it.

          You suggestion that 50 million of the unvaccinated 100 million people is so unintelligent that I am amazed at the fact that you would actually allege such nonsense. That would be a 50 percent death rate — and at a time when the death rate is dropping for primarily two reasons…. (1) most the the seniors and most vulnerable to dying are vaccinated. That leaves the younger folks who are getting milder cases and not dying. (1) The mitigation of those who contract Covid is improving on a daily basis.

          At this time, approximately 300 to 400 hundred people are dying of Covid each day. Taking the higher 400 number, it would take, it would take approximately 340 years for 50 million people to die. If the daily death toll went up to 1000 per day, it would only take 140 years for 50 million to die.

          Looking at it another way, If 50 million people were to die in the next year, you would have 136,000 dying each day. Even if you extend the Covid for two years, you still have 70,000 dying each day.

          THAT is what makes me think Corvid will NOT take another 50 million. You will not even get close to 50 million people contracting Covid, much less dying from it.

          Stop sipping the cider, Joe. You are making an utter fool of yourself.

          • Joe S Bruder

            I made no such assertion. Go back and actually read the posts. You said that 85% of people won’t get the virus, to which I replied that 15% of 350M people is 50 million that (according to your statistics, which I think are too low) will get COVID and 2% of them (statistically) will die, or about 1M.

            And in the following post I said there were already 35M cases, and Delta could “take” another 50M. It’s clear from context (since I was already talking about the number of cases) that I meant “infect” not “kill”. But you usually intentionally (or if not intentionally, because you’re missing a step these days? maybe it’s time to retire…) misunderstand and pick apart individual statements (even though your own replies are not always coherent) and create a straw-man argument based on nothing that you can use to discredit any writers that you disgree with.

            You’re confusing the 50M estimate based on your numbers with my statement that 100M people could still get the virus. and combining them to state that I said 50M out of 100M will die. 35M have already had the virus, and Delta variant is spreading much faster, so it’s not unlikely that the bulk of the 100M unvaccinated people could get the new variant. Given that Delta is spreading like wildfire among the unvaccinated, and the CDC estimates that 93.4% of the new cases are Delta variant, and there is no immunity to Delta by having already had COVID, it’s still likely that another 1-2M will die.

            55% of Republicans polled have said that they won’t get vaxxed. The very same people are militantly against wearing masks, and continue to carry on with their lives as if there is no such thing as COVID (and thanks to Republican “leaders” and conspiracy theorists, many of them believe that), and they continue to freely mingle and associate and party with like-minded people. They fight against mask mandates, calling them unconstitutional or fascist or whatever. They pretend to be vaccinated so they don’t have to wear a mask, which puts themselves and a few percent of vaccinated people at risk as well. They are standing in the middle of the wildfire holding cans of gasoline.

            As COVID-Delta gets more press, maybe they’ll smarten up and get vaccinated… but many of them have staked their entire (Republican, Conservative, Trump-supporting) identity on fighting against anything the government says or does, and they’ll suffer the consequences just to “own the libs” or to make Biden’s vaccination numbers look bad.

            And if this becomes a second reply to your post, blame your site. Posts here seem to take hours to actually show up after submission. After a half day, if I still don’t see my post, I give up on it and write a new one.

    • Nitpicker

      You can’t really expect anyone to read all of that drivel. If there was any meaning in that projectile vomiting (which I doubt), it was lost in the first three sentences.

  2. Rough/Rider9

    How many Chinese have the Wuhan Virus? That would be very enlightening information! Who wants to bet the Chinese have a CURE and have had the cure since before they released this plague on the World?

  3. frank stetson

    Chances are he will start the process; follow the money…. As long as he can rake it in, he will proceed. In 2017, literally on the day he was inaugurated, Trump filed to run in the next election allowing him to immediately raise funds. He then pushed $3M to his businesses to cover food, lodging and legal expenses. Since the election that he lost, he has raised over $200 in the first 3 weeks post November 2020 which can be used to pursue his lifestyle and continues to push money to his businesses. During the process, Trump has bilked million from his loyal contributors by putting an auto-bill feature in the fine print. Over half a million refunds over over $60M in total have been made.

    Today, Trump has a war chest of over $100M. The Big Lie is one of his best marketing messages used to fleece the sheep. Continued spending at Trump Properties occurred throughout 2021 as Trump and his supporting organizations continue to give Trump businesses their business.

    Why would he ever stop this cash flow to his businesses while supporting his favored lifestyle including room, board, travel and dining along with his substantial legal fees? No, he will run until the money runs out. Your money. Keep the faith.

  4. Arthur

    Larry,
    As you say, it’s difficult prognosticating future Republican moves on anything demonstratively positive or encouraging.
    They are the ones not coming forward with answers to problems political, democracy building, economical, social, or Public Health responsible.
    Those elected on the GOP ticket and swore the oath, except for a few brave and courageous ones, have fear of Trump’s wrath. Although, he had not fared well with those he supported in state elections recently. The Rep. house and senate members seem less interested in deciding with their vote to do the best for America and their constituents ( Rep and Dem) and more focused on personal gain. Representatives in both houses, supposedly intelligent, knowledgeable, and responsible adults, are believed to not fall to party pressures and join the red herd. Republicans’ only plan is oppositional. Any and every idea initiated by the other Party will be opposed out of a mendacious spirit and general block headed defiance.
    All the negativity you bring against Democrats with accusations, character aspersions, individual debasing, and generalizing stereotype judgements amounts to angry posturing representing accusation by projection. All that you write condemning Democrats as the source of America’s ills and it future undoing is essentially of the GOP’s doing.
    Your unmitigated hatred for all things Democrats Party at this late stage of your life, I believe, stems from early on in your life in politics. You ran for office in Chicago. Assuming you were out promoting yourself and your view for Chicago. The other party fought against you and most likely they did not fight fair and clean. Then, when you lost the vote. It was not easy. And, the city’s political machine of the day was allowed to continue business as usual in the City.
    It was inevitable that you could not prevail, a conservative Republican in a historically pro-democratic electorate demographic. But, this was not just any big city, it was Chicago and famously run by less than worthy characters.
    All Democrats are not Chicago style. Never the less, old wounds and scars from those experiences not allowed healing hinder ones moving on. Thus, they become a large part of your character, not just something experienced as educational. Things not managed well in ones past hard feelings tend toward overtaking feeling present. Managing feelings for all Dems related people and subjects comes by means of writing, speaking, and blogging slams.
    If not for the low percent of readers looking and sounding like you, you would not find any traction to continue.

    • Joe S Bruder

      Don’t bother trying to psychoanalyze Larry… He thinks that the Democratic Party today is the same Democratic Party of the “olden days”. Reagan had his “southern strategy”, which was to capture everyone who was conservative Christian (by using abortion as his lever) and capitalizing on racism. In the span of a few years, most of the Democrats in the South converted to Republicans. So, they ended up with the racists and religious extremists, and Democrats became the party of moderation and tolerance. Subsequent Republicans have just made it a game to win, no matter what. There is no longer any talk about programs for people, or any kind of investment or public spending. The only thing they care about is how to get money from rich people and how to use it to rig the system in their favor. There is no Republican party now – they’re all Trump’s toadies.

      • Dan Tyree

        Joe what makes you think that republicans are racist? You libturds throw shit on the wall and see how much sticks. Come on Give proof that republicans are racist. I double dog dare you. Race relations would be better if you leftist morons would shut up about it. I’ve never once wronged any person of color. You idiots are so damned determined to push your race theory that kindergarten kids are subjected to indoctrination. I was trained by my parents to believe that we are all God’s creation, but you commiecrats are good at divide and conquer. You people are the dividers and want to separate people into groups. So now who’s racist? Is it the republicans that spout bullshit about blacks being too stupid to get picture ID? Or that they need the government wiping their asses for them? You people are pathetic. I’m glad that more blacks are coming to realize that the world doesn’t owe them a living.

      • larry Horist

        To Arthur and Joe. It has been said that one can be judged by his enemies — or at least his critics. I am honored to have critics like you two who are so arrogant and ignorant — and obsessed by Republican hatred — that you have the audacity to falsely and maliciously analyze my character. I understand that you have created the straw man you wish to knock down, but I am not that straw man. But the fact that you both would descend to such intellectual and moral depravity says more about you than me. From your writings, it appears that your toxic emotions have gotten the better if your intellect. Unlike you guys, I do not pretend to know you psyche, but I can tell from you writings that neither of you are not prepared to engaged in civil or intelligent dialogue.

        • Joe S Bruder

          Larry, it’s just hard for us to let you spew your lies unchallenged. We try to stay civil, but you (and especially your followers like Dan) don’t refute arguments, you just hurl insults. You don’t try to challenge our data or conclusions, you draw your own conclusions on what you think we mean (obviously just skimming, and not really reading the posts).

          You think my interpretation of the COVID numbers doubling every week or two is wrong – then fine, refure that.That would be what you call “civil or intelligent dialogue”. You don’t believe that COVID has become a disease of the unvaccinated? Or that 55% of Republicans have said they won’t vaccinate? Refute that. I’m data driven, I look at CDC numbers and draw my own conclusions. You state that “most of the elderly have been vaccinated”, but Republicans are getting more and more militant about not wearing masks or getting vaccinated – what evidence do you have that all those anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers are young people? That’s not Trump’s demographic.

          Moral depravity? How do you get there? We’re debating about whether COVID is growing among Trump followers or not… or whether Trump committed crimes… or whether he’s fleecing his loyal flock or not… or back to the original premise, whether Trump can or will run for President again. It’s not a moral position, it’s taking a position based on the available evidence. We can certainly debate Trump’s moral depravity, though.

          In the end, I think that you are limiting your inputs to an ever-decreasing bubble of Trump supporters… and you’re not prepared to listen to Arthur and I and Ben and Nitpicker, even though we are now the majority of your responders. You’ve gone down the rabbit hole with the conspiracy theorists, and part of that theory is that all Democrats (liberals, progressives, etc) are bad and not to be trusted. Good luck with that… but if I were you, I wouldn’t go anywhere in Florida without a vaccination and a mask.

    • Nitpicker

      Good grief! If you can’t “dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with B.S.

  5. Trump DENFENDER

    We must remain faithful and patriotic to our Commander and Chief, Donald J. Trump, President of the United States of America.

    Without the efforts of the American Republican Party, the mainstay of the real American people, America can never achieve greatness in industry nor of agriculture. Without this çore, the cause of greatness cannot be achieved.

    A well disciplined party armed with the theory of Reagan-Thatcherism, using the method of relentless criticism, controlling discussion to prevent the fakeness of news; an army under the leadership of such a party; being a united front of all the conservative classes and conservative groups under the leadership of such a party – these are the main weapons with which we have defeated the globalist enemies, Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney. For this is the fate of the socialists like Bernie Sanders as well.

    The hope for America’s new future and renewed expectation of the people all inspire us to persevere and be resolute in our work; being necessary of a free state, we must not be infringed. As a Donald J. Trump says, “Most people think small because they are afraid of success, afraid of making decisions, afraid of winning.” Donald J. Trump,The Art of the Deal.

    Please do not block or mute me. It is so very very important that we ALL must be loyal and faithful to our Commander and Chieftan, Donald J. Trump, the greatest PrPPresident of the UNited States, ever.

    • Joe S Bruder

      The fact that you say “please do not block me or mute me” makes me think this reply is from a (Russian) bot…

      • Trump DENFENDER

        You should be more patriotic and faithful to support Donald J. trump President of the United States of America.

        In the final analysis, national struggle is the struggle of business. Among whites in the United States, it is only the elites of the establishment party that oppress the black people. As Donald J. Trump says, “A heart full of patriotism has no room for prejudice.” In this way, Donald J. Trump represents the workers, farmers, investors, and other enlightened people who comprise the overwhelming majority of white people.

        So it is up to Donald J. Trump, Fox News, Ms. Anne Coulter and Mr. Rush Limbaugh to organize the people and overthrow the state of deep opposition. Everything that is politically correct is the same. If you do not hit it, it will not fall. This is also like sweeping the floor. Where the broom does not reach, the dust will not vanish by itself.

        The press, the enemy of the people, will not vanish by iteslf. Neither will the elite establishment reactionaries, nor the aggressive forces of globalism step away from history of their own accord.

  6. JoE S Bruder

    more clues that you’re a bot – Rush Limbaugh died… and your prose has a distinctly “dear leader” flavor to it… Oh, and Trump lost and is NOT President.

    • Dan Tyree

      The election was stolen.

      • Joe S Bruder

        Proof? 80-something cases tossed out of court for lack of proof. And yet, Trump is still calling it stolen because he continues to raise money to fight it in court. Except the money he raises is not being spent on court, it’s going into his own pockets. What a bunch of chumps, giving a supposedly rich beggar money to support his lavish lifestyle while you work for yours!

        • Nitpicker

          “Lack of proof?” No evidence was ever presented. Here are the key facts per Justice Thomas:

          “In some cases, state executive branch officials changed the rules; in others, judges made the changes. But under the U.S. Constitution, neither had the authority.

          Thomas made the commonsense point: “Unclear rules threaten to undermine [the electoral system].”

          The Supreme Court is giving state government officials free rein to make unauthorized changes in election rules and to override election laws.”

          • Joe S Bruder

            There was no evidence to present. The judges literally asked “do you have evidence of any wrongdoing?” and Trump’s idiot lawyers (who loudly proclaimed outside of the courtroom that they had tons of evidence) meekly replied “No, your Honor” instead of perjuring themselves.

            If they’d have said “yes” and presented the evidence that Trump was claiming to find in internet reports, the would have been disbarred. Judges don’t tolerate frivolous and falsified evidence, not one bit. As it is, many are getting their licenses challenged for bringing frivolous lawsuits in the first place.

  7. frank stetson

    Over 86 cases with the majority, nearly all of them in fact, tossed for lack of evidence including at least Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin with numerous judges dismissing cases being hired by Trump, who only hires the best you know. I guess, based on the resignations, firings, indictments, and jail times for said best hires, they just don’t age well after coming on board :>(

    There’s a billion dollar suit brought against Trump lawyers by Dominion Voting Systems, a similar case brought by another company against Fox, including Dobbs, Bartiromo, and Pirro as well as Trump lawyers for close to 3 billion. Numerous Judges have rebuked Trump’s legal team for frivolous legal cases, expect fines and sanctions to follow. Trump’s rocket scientist legal team claims that Trump’s public announcement of The Big Lie of voter fraud shields them from sanctions saying the fact the president alleged widespread election fraud makes their lies more legitimate. Since the judges usually responds to these arguments with, “ah, where did you go to school? how long have you practiced? do you think you might have looked at the evidence before you acted on your client’s allegations?” this is probably not going to end well. Still heating up at the end of July 2021 —- gonna get better.

    So yeah Joe, great response to The Big Lie of “The election was stolen.” No proof, just belief in the man who has learned how to milk sheep by telling them lies. Any time I see a Trump 2024 Flag I smile and think: “there’s money well spent…”

    • Dan Tyree

      Tossed because the courts shut down the witnesses

    • Nitpicker

      Read my comment above Frank.

  8. Hatman1793

    I think you are seriously under estimating President Trump voters, his voting base & his supporters. T45 not only raises enormous amounts of campaign funds, you can see his supporters & TRUMP paraphernalia everywhere.
    2024 would be the last opportunity for T45 to be President, while other big name Republicans have an younger age advantage to ride his coattails later. Perhaps as VP even.
    Can Trump win? Absolutely. T45 won 2020, only it was stolen in 5 battleground States where unelected judges & rogue State election officials gerrymandered the vote.

    • Joe S Bruder

      Larry, I made no such comment that 50M people would die. You said that 15% of the population would get COVID, to which I replied that 15% of 350M (the approximate population of the US) is 50M, and 2% of that is a million people. You’ve completely misunderstood what I said and then used that misunderstanding to attack me. Which is how most of your columns start.

      Daily deaths are rising, and 750 people died of COVID in the US a couple of days ago, almost entirely unvaccinated people who got the Delta variant. For you to expect it to stay at that level is just disingenuous – the number of daily cases has risen from a low of about 14000 a day in mid-June to around 140,000 per day now. The death rate lags the number of new cases (obviously!) – since the number of cases doubled every two weeks, then I expect the number of deaths to double every two weeks too. That means by the end of September, we’ll be up to 50,000 deaths a day. There is no evidence that young people are going to be spared by COVID-Delta, and the 55% of 70M Trump voters who haven’t had the vaccine could add up to three quarters of a million deaths.

      A sudden wave of vaccinations if people get scared could change things. I am just working through the numbers, but I hope the numbers change for the better. It’s not criminal to be stupid, and they don’t deserve a death sentence (or impotence or sterility or kidney/liver/heart/lung damage or any of the other long-haul effects). Dying is a tough way to learn a lesson… it’s too bad the Trump-followers don’t have enough intelligence or empathy to learn from the hard-core non-vaxxers who diedd

      You obviously have problems with numbers, as do your conservative, Republican, Trumpian readers. Work through the numbers yourselves if you don’t believe me. When things double on a regular basis, like every two weeks or week, or even a few days, exponential growth can add up scary-fast. All of the idiots who are waiting for some sign from the Trump-god before getting their shots are going to find themselves infected and no chance for a do-over.

    • Joe S Bruder

      Yes, Trump is a huckster who can raise a lot of money from foolish people. But some 60-80% of the people don’t believe his lies, and more than half of the population are calling for investigations into his crimes, and they are most certainly already ongoing (both investigations and Trump’s crimes). The Government works slowly, and the Feds don’t bring a case until they’re absolutely certain. They’re still gathering evidence and taking names and flipping Trump’s co-conspirators against each other. When Trump is indicted, his ability to raise money will be severely curtailed.

      And if you still think that Trump won the election, review the evidence before you make that claim out loud. I don’t think even Larry is still in that camp… If you find any evidence that isn’t hearsay and innuendo on a conspiracy website (which I doubt you will) and review it, you’ll find that … guess what, there’s nothing there. If you find ANYTHING, bring it up here, or even write a column for PBP, because the only evidence they’ve published so far (with a grand pronouncement about how “this changes everything”) was the conspiracy about how US ex-patriot votes were being routed through suspicious military and commercial radio stations in Italy and Germany… except that’s not how overseas voting works, they do it all by mail… (in fact, NO VOTES travel over the airwaves or internet, we just don’t do that) … and the original source from the story was in Bulgaria (or maybe it was Albania, hard to keep track of conspiracy generators). And when questioned about whether there is further evidence, PBP just says, it’s there, but we’re not going to try to find it, it’s up to the winners to prove they actually lost (I guess, because journalists don’t do that… except who has ever accused PBP of having real journalists?)

  9. frank stetson

    “Tossed because the courts shut down the witnesses.” Really, all of them, wow, that’s just incredible, don’t know anyone who heard the judges shut down the witnesses. Maybe that was after they determined they had no evidence whatsoever.

    “In some cases, state executive branch officials changed the rules; in others, judges made the changes.” I can’t find these statements, can you direct? Justice Thomas probably said some like that in his dissent in the Pennsylvania dissent, but if that’s where you got it, you take it out of context given that in the same dissent concluded that the voting process did not alter the outcome as in the election was not changed by the manner that votes were cast. In other words, in his own words, he said: “That decision to rewrite the rules seems to have affected too few ballots to change the outcome.”

    If your quotes exist, I believe it’s in the area where he was using a Philadelphia State Senate case from 1990 when he said: “an election free from strong evidence of systemic fraud is not alone sufficient for election confidence.” Again, no duh. And he noted: “Also important is the assurance that fraud will not go undetected,” again, no slander intended, it’s a no duh. Let’s face it, it’s a no-duh that elections should be fair and honest. No one likes fraud, id, voting, or otherwise. But Thomas was not being specific to the Pennsylvania case in that part of the dissent. His conclusion to PA is noted above – the vote was good, the rest is The Big Lie you still believe.

    In that’s the section you paraphrased, or quoted, Thomas and company, really got slammed in the legal world for being off topic and furthering The Big Lie needlessly. Not that in a general sense, it’s not spot on, it is. But it’s Mom n Apple Pie that no one can deny that will be used, just like you used it, to spin a narrative that is not the case, not the conclusion even of the dissent that Thomas and company wrote.

    Correct me if I misread that.