Does Trump Have the Right of First Refusal on the GOP Nomination?
Democrats and most Republicans seem to believe that the 2024 presidential nomination belongs to Trump if he chooses to run. Delaying his decision is said to be keeping all the potential presidential aspirants on the sideline.
There are three questions yet unanswered. Will Trump decide to run? Can he secure the GOP nomination in 2024? Would he win the General Election?
Will Trump decide to run?
I believe he would like to run. But he would have to weigh a lot of issues before making that decision –some issues that are yet unknown or unresolved.
One issue would be his age and health. Obviously, he would have to remain healthy and vital. In view of the success of President Biden that issue may be eliminated – unless Biden is incapable of completing his four-year term. Then Trump’s age would work against him. It is impossible to prognosticate on that issue. Only time will tell.
Also weighing in on Trump’s decision to run is his political health. What will be the result of the many law cases winding their way through the courts? Some of the charges have to do with his pre-presidency business days. While Trump has not been indicted in any of the criminal cases, his top financial guy, Allen Weisselberg, has – and that is VERY close to the top of the Trump organization and to Trump himself.
Democrats in Congress are going after Trump’s political hide with two investigations.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s faux bipartisan Select Committee on the January 6th Capitol Hill riot is hoping to snare Trump and Republican leaders in as participants in an imaginary attempted coup. This could backfire, however. And it is not likely to have much effect on the 2022 midterms elections since Trump is not on the ballot. Trying to use Trump to smear all Republicans is not likely to work. It did not in 2020 when Trump was the top of the ticket. And the GOP did very well down the ballot.
In a parallel effort, House Democrats are investigating Trump’s business interests. That investigation gained steam when the Justice Department reversed its ruling. It now says that Trump’s tax returns must by turned over to the Congress. There is no doubt that this is a fishing expedition. However, as a longtime New York City real estate developer, I would be surprised that there were not at least minimal violations of the law – which Democrats will inflate into capital crimes in the court-of-public-opinion. There are also things that could be embarrassing to Trump – or at least made to look embarrassing.
Since Congress cannot charge or indict anyone for crimes – that is the job of the Justice Department—the investigations in Congress are just exercises in politics in the dangerous court-of-public-opinion — that too often produces vigilante justice based on propaganda rather than rules-of-evidence.
Apart from age and scandals, Trump may just not want to do it. Especially if it appears that he would not likely succeed.
Can Trump secure the nomination for 2024?
Trump would have to weigh the possibility of his winning the nomination. It is far from assured – even though many perceive it that way at this point. This could be a major decision for Trump and anyone who is willing to take him on in a primary.
We must remember that most Republican voters in 2016 preferred a candidate other than Trump. He built momentum with approximately 25 to 30 percent of the vote against 15 other candidates who divided the rest of the vote. He did not start winning a majority in the primaries until he was virtually assured of the nomination.
The so-called Trump base is 30 to 40 percent of the Republican primary voters. Trump supporters most likely inflated those numbers to show strength. And, ironically, by Democrats and the media who want to claim that the entire GOP is a Trump cult. I would estimate the Trump base – those who would not consider any other candidate – at more like 10 percent of Republican voters. The majority of folks who cast a ballot for Trump in 2016 and 2020 saw him as the better option. They voted against the Democrats more than for Trump – something he never understood.
If Trump were to face one or two strong GOP contenders in 2024 – and there are a number of them — I believe that Trump would not prevail in the primaries – and would start losing in the early contests. The Democrats are guilty of wishful thinking if they truly believe that most GOP voters are blindly loyal to Trump – or any politician – over the all-important issues. I do not personally know a single Trump voter who would abandon the Republican ticket in 2024 if Trump was not at the top.
Would Trump win the General Election in 2024?
I cannot make a prognostication with any level of confidence at this time. I do know that if the choice on the ballot was between Trump and any of the likely Democrat candidates – with a continuation of the left-wing disastrous policies – I would, for the third time, cast my ballot for Trump. If not the happiest choice, it is not a difficult one.
It is not about the man – and his flawed personality – but about the greater administration and the empowerment of Republicans in Congress – conservative Republican values being enacted by many more officials than Trump, himself.
A lot depends on how many folks like me are out there. I do know people who voted for Trump once … and against once. Some have told me that they voted for Trump twice. What should concern the greater Republican Party is that I have never come across any voter who did not vote for Trump in 2016 and 2020 – or even voted for Trump in 2016 and against in 2020 – who will vote for him in the future. There is just no way of measuring how many of them there are.
If I were to place odds on the three questions, I would give Trump only a 40 percent chance he will run. If he did, only a 30 percent chance he would win the nomination. And a less than 50 percent chance he would win the General Election if he was the nominee.
This commentary reflects my total rejections of the left’s mendacious narrative that the GOP is some sort of cult-of-personality. I understand why they proffer that cow dung. It is because they cannot win on the issues. They have to engage in demonization and character assassination of an entire political party. And they can do so as long as they have the advantage of a corrupt and biased so-called news media giving false credibility to their political narratives.
So, there ‘tis.