Does President Biden really mean to remain in the race and let the people decide in November? He emphatically says so. But I am dubious.
Even if he intends to step down and hand the nomination to Vice President Harris – or intends to resign and hand her the presidency – Biden has to pretend he is going to take his candidacy to November. Or to mid-September when early voting starts.
If he were to withdraw now, he knows the convention would be chaotic – and who knows who would come out as the standard bearer? Stepping down after the nomination gives Harris the nomination … or the presidency.
It would have to come very quickly after that August Democratic National Convention because it will be only one month until the start of early voting. Harris would assume control of the Biden/Harris campaign structure and money. No one would be able to derail her as the Democrat standard bearer for 2024.
I find it hard to believe he really intends to go all the way. He knows … Jill knows … his family knows … his closest advisers know … what most everyone in America now knows … that Biden is in the early to mid-stage of serious physical and mental decline – and that it will inevitably get worse over time. He will not finish a second term. Jill Biden and the President’s handlers are handling – and will continue to handle more and more the business – until he is totally incapable or has passed on.
Just as President Franklin Roosevelt’s wife and handlers knew he was a dead man walking when he ran and was elected to a fourth term, Team Biden knows their man will not complete a second term. One way or the other, they are setting Harris up for the presidency. The only thing that can thwart that plan is for Biden to run and lose.
And there is the rub.
Prior to the debate, Democrats were already concerned that Biden could lose to President Trump. Biden was trailing in the polls and losing the battleground states. But with the odds at 50/50, it was a risk that had to be taken. Although many Democrats believed that Biden should not have gone for a second term in the first place. Before the debate, they were stuck with him – and at least he was essentially in a tie with Trump.
Biden’s disastrous performance in the debate changed everything, especially the perception of his chances of beating Trump. In fact, many Democrat leaders and strategists have expressed their belief that the diminished Biden cannot beat Trump. A larger number have expressed a similar belief in private or off-the-record conversations.
Compassion for Biden is turning to anger. While some say Biden is a great person, it is time for him to step down to preserve his legacy and give Democrats a better chance of winning in November. But …others are upset that Biden and those around him have been lying about his condition from the get-go, and are continuing to lie in order to keep him in the race as a way to protect their powerful positions.
The Democrat race is now all about the future. Biden’s past accomplishments mean nothing in terms of his ability to perform in the future. Biden’s ability to stay in the race depends on his avoiding any senior moments in the future. The calculus depends on what the polls show in the future. Biden’s current situation is very precarious. Any more bad news will likely tip the scale.
So, which is it? Biden sincerely intending to take the campaign to November? Or … is the fix in for Harris to be played out after the convention? I think the only thing that will keep Biden in the race is bullheadedness by him and Jill. That is the Democrats’ dilemma.
So, there ‘tis.