Select Page

DeSantis needs to avoid early frontrunner jinx

DeSantis needs to avoid early frontrunner jinx

There is no doubt that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is the early frontrunner for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination – if he chooses to run.  It appears that he is leaning in that direction, and the political winds are pushing him ahead.

I have previously written that DeSantis should run — even if former President Trump is in the race.  I have stated that he would beat Trump – with the possible exception of another 16 Republicans entering the contest and dividing the anti-Trump vote evenly.  That is unlikely to happen again.

 I based my recommendation to DeSantis on my belief that Trump was not nearly as popular with Republican voters as both the Democrats and Trump like to claim.  Current information suggests I was correct.

Trump is not only cratering, but he has become politically toxic among a very wide band of American voters – including a majority of Republican voters. The Democrat-owned news media are no longer calling Trump’s GOP nomination “inevitable” – they are no longer saying that the Republican nomination was his for the asking.

The recent U.S. Today poll has DeSantis as the Republican voters’ choice for 2024 – and it is not even close.  The Florida Governor trumps the former President.  While 31 percent want Trump to run again, 61 percent do not.  Other polls are showing similar numbers.

That is why Democrats and their media cronies have now turned all their partisan political guns on DeSantis.  Remember, the left-wing press is devoted to defeating Republican (conservative) candidates in every office – from President to school board.  Theirs’ is a partisan mission.  They have sold out to the Democratic Party.   Their vision is a one-party rule, with Washington being the control point.  Make no mistake about it, today’s Democrat leaders and NOT democrats.

They are still going after Trump – even though they know he is no longer the dominant force in the Republican Party.  They want to drive every last nail in his political coffin – which he helped them build – because Trump is the centerpiece of the attack on ALL Republicans.  If the voting public does not see Republicans as the Party of Trump, Democrats may be the losers.

Poll after poll shows that DeSantis is more than a threat to Trump.  He is the current game changer. Without a single attack on Trump, DeSantis is proving that the king has no clothes.  Trump is not invincible.  He never was, but now even the illusion is fading away.

But … before DeSantis gets too confident, he should look at the record of early frontrunners.  At this time in 2016, most pundits and polls gave the nomination to Florida Governor Jeb Bush.  We all know how that turned out.  Hillary Clinton was the leading candidate early on – until a young upstart named Barack Obama flew past her in 2008. There was a time when Kamala Harris was ahead of Joe Biden in the early days of the 2020 campaign season.  Go back in history and check out Jack Kemp, Rudy Giuliani, Lyndon Johnson, Morris Udall, and Paul Tsongas – all early frontrunners.

There are reasons why early frontrunners do not do well.  One is voter fatigue.  After month after month of seeing one candidate in the news every day, that fresh face is … well … refreshing.  Also, early frontrunners not only get most of the media attention but also get most of the media attacks.

This is happening to DeSantis – arguably more than even most early frontrunners.  The left-wing media fears DeSantis, so they are pulling out all stops to tarnish his image and undermine his chances.  Because they see him as the candidate who can beat Biden – or his replacement – the media is in full character assassination mode.

DeSantis cannot stop being noticed, but he can tamper down his own publicity machine in these early days.  He can give the left a smaller target, at least for the next six to eight months – before the presidential campaign season gets into full gear.

He should let the media chew on Trump’s political carcass without being pulled into the issues surrounding the former President.  DeSantis does not need to take on Trump to outrun him.  He is doing that already.  This is a time DeSantis should keep a low profile as much as possible – focusing on retail politics in key primary states.

So, there ‘tis.

About The Author

Larry Horist

So,there‘tis… The opinions, perspectives and analyses of Larry Horist Larry Horist is a businessman, conservative writer and political strategist with an extensive background in economics and public policy. Clients of his consulting firm have included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman. He has served as a consultant to the Nixon White House and travelled the country as a spokesman for President Reagan’s economic reforms. He has testified as an expert witness before numerous legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress. Horist has lectured and taught courses at numerous colleges and universities, including Harvard, Northwestern, DePaul universities, Hope College and his alma mater, Knox College. He has been a guest on hundreds of public affairs talk shows, and hosted his own program, “Chicago In Sight,” on WIND radio. Horist was a one-time candidate for mayor of Chicago and served as Executive Director of the City Club of Chicago, where he led a successful two-year campaign to save the historic Chicago Theatre from the wrecking ball. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries appear frequently on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He is praised by readers for his style, substance and sense of humor. According to one reader, Horist is the “new Charles Krauthammer.” He is actively semi-retired in Boca Raton, Florida where he devotes his time to writing. So, there ‘tis is Horist’s signature sign off.


  1. frank stetson

    Good points Larry. First, there was disney-gate, then felon-voter gate, then immigrant to Desanctimonious’ Harvard summer retreat-gate, then voter harvesting gate, and recently vaccine-gate. Probably more, but these all look like PR stunts designed, and getting results, for national press. A couple are downright silly, except in their meanness.

    I call the up’s and down’s part of the clown car nomination process with republicans invented in 2008 but perfected in 2016 with the Trump show, now only in reruns….Remember when you would have a different front runner every week, often with the previous front runner bowing out for some PR catastrophe? Not be outdone, we rolled our season out in 2016 and went whole hog in 2020.

    I am hoping the party leadership would end this and put up a reasonable slate of contenders, but am pretty sure I am pissing up wind.

    But yes, he’s being directed by his communications team and they are very good at raising the good stink so far covering voter fraud, immigration, and now with a complete 180, the vaccines and Fauci. And his next act will be? (unfortunately, with this guy, unlike Trump, it’s not an act.

    Gonna be real hard for Dems to dirty this guy. He’s a believer who hits all the checkboxes. IMO. Man, even I want Reagan back :>)

    • larry Horist

      Frank Stetson ….LOL … you just delineated a number of things that are very popular with the people (not left-wingers, of course) … and why he won a huge election victory — turning a purple-ish state ruby read — and is the most popular Republican in the nation. I think the left is reacting to him like they did to Reagan. Good luck with that.

      • frank stetson

        popular does not make it right, you must know that Larry? I agree, very popular, vetted, check boxes all hit, but most popular Republican in the nation? Getting a bit ahead of your headlights there, old man. Maybe, probably, but certainly? A bit early yet, the Trumplicants are still figuring it out……

        Maybe, but I have been pretty respectful thus far, nothing he is the real deal, a believer, a popular FL politician, and obviously, able to garner national spotlight with his PR stunts (and so far, not get much blowback.)

        But yeah, I would take Reagan over DeSantis in a heartbeat even though we could not beat him.

    • frank stetson

      “of the five issues you just presented, three of them most Independents would not have issues with or might even agree with DeSantis.” Pretty impossible given 80% of independents consistently lean one way or the other. This has shifted from side to side, but fact remains that Independents are split and “most” siding with Desantis is unlikely, or unimportant to the end result.

      My point is these were pretty good national stunts all paid for by Florida taxpayers, who cares about the party.

      On Disney-Gate, having invested just before the Desantis move, I can tell you the stock was depressed before he mouthed off. It did go down more but analysts said it was due to steaming competition and costs. Disney revenues have climbed for the last 18 months or so, growth is off and margins are down — that’s not a lack of people at the park or watching the streaming. Recently, Avatar did not help. Beyond FOX, many think this is a nit, but the Florida tax loss might be hefty. About Disney becoming less woke; I guess you don’t know Iger. I am holding because I, and most experts, think it’s a good long term strategy.

      I agree, 20 felons allowed to vote by Florida, and then arrested for being allowed to vote by Florida, being touted as the major arrest of his special voter fraud police costing Floridians millions is a nothing. Unless this guy brings this waste of money to DC. Not to mention the meanness of the perp walks, the cops on tape, and why? They will all be let off. Not exactly a Presidential move.

      Desantis went to Harvard and Yale; he knows the Vineyard. He then used Florida tax dollars to create a brouchure, hire people to round em up with said brochure, etc. and sent them to Texas to get him some of those border crossers which he then used more FL tax dollars to ship to MV. Again, only 50, he systemically did nothing. Nothing was fixed. And this one may not even be legal. Oh yeah, and you do know that many a rich Republican owns part of MV, don’t you?

      You got the wrong Harvesting Gate. No wonder, it went underground post announcement. Strange eh. Twas the biggest thing since Felon Gate, let’s face it, Desantis has fucking voter fraud all over his state. Gotta get him to DC! It’s here: Again, more FL taxpayer dollars for national press.

      Vaccine gate is off too, he just announced taking vaccines/Fauci to a FL grand jury because, well, he didn’t really say but it’s something illegal. This from a guy who once said: “take this, it’s goooood.” This one was cheap, FL tax dollars only affected if it really goes to court.

      “he’s being directed by his communications team and they are very good at raising the good stink so far covering voter fraud, immigration, and now with a complete 180, the vaccines and Fauci. And his next act will be? (Unfortunately, with this guy, unlike Trump, it’s not an act.

      Gonna be real hard for Dems to dirty this guy. He’s a believer who hits all the checkboxes. IMO. Man, even I want Reagan back :>)”

  2. JoeyP

    This is something that I would wait on until later . . . Who knows what will happen NEXT this far out?

  3. Tom

    As an independent Christian, here is how I see it: First there was disney-gate – and I agreed with DeSantis then and now – so its a non-issue. By the way, Disney is now walking back their wokeness some because their stock has fallen from a March 2021 high of $200 to a new December 2022 $87 – seems like consumers have already voted on this issue and you are on the wrong side of the vote. Second, there’s felon-voter gate where I will use the White House KJP approach “at least we got some felons the vote, even if it did not work out for every one of them, but I hope they continue to get the vote for all felons who have completed there incarceration and parole” – and it only involved 20 felons, so its a non-issue. Third, then immigrant to Desanctimonious’ Harvard summer retreat-gate – never heard of it and it did not affect me so its a non-issue. Now if you are talking about Martha’s Vinyard plane load of 50 asylum seekers who forced their way into our country, well I am in favor of shipping all 4.9 million of them to all of the blue states, especially affluent areas! Its time the wealthy liberals have to live with their ill-fated ideas. And if some immigrants got the chance to enjoy a summer home retreat area, even if only for a few hours (since those liberal bleeding hearts shipped them out as quick as they could), that’s great! I have more issues with shipping them out of Martha’s Vinyard then sending them there. At least they got to see the dream, but the wealthy liberals refused to let them live it. Fourth, then voter harvesting gate invented by “The Post” was myth and was debunked – see “ ” So this one is also a non-issue. Fifth, recently “vaccinegate” scandal involved one county in FL, Manatee County Commissioner Vanessa Baugh. DeSantis had nothing to do with this, as a matter of fact, I remember him being against mandatory vaccination – so this is a non-issue. So you are being a bit disingenuous mentioning this, see “” Probably more, but these all look like PR stunts ? Well it is equally true that there may not probably be more! Please look at both sides of probability!

    So in summary, of the five issues you just presented, three of them most Independents would not have issues with or might even agree with DeSantis. One issue DeSantis had nothing to do with, and one of the issues you missed the article debunking the Post article.

    So it appears to me that DeSantis ought to take Larry’s advice and lay low, not spend his political energy and capital fighting Trump since the Dems are happy to destroy Trump (they love a good pig picking!), and not declare his candidacy too soon. In addition, I think he should work with someone like Newt G. or other strategist to announce his candidacy along with a contract with America that gives Americans a vision, and includes steps to take that work to turn around our Dem led decline.

    A quality executive like DeSantis who has successfully led a state, and can get the job done and can definitely garner most Independent votes scares the heck out of Dems. And this is a good thing – maybe they will come up with a better candidate than Biden/Harris. IF they do not come up with a better candidate than Biden, then purchase plenty of OxyClean – you will need it to clean the soiling in your knickers.

    • Wayne

      Tom you mentioned being a Christian. I would love to be one but what should I do?

      • Tom

        Study the life of Jesus Christ and incorporate his teachings into your life, and be baptized. I would suggest the Life Application Study Bible by the publisher Tyndale because it has notes at the bottom of each page that are very informative and relative to the scriptures, the times, the practices at that time in history, and maps. I also keep a King James version (KJV) handy because it has slightly higher scriptural precision in translation which is the basis for most other bible versions. The Tyndale Life Application Study Bible is much easier for most people to understand because it is written in more plain English. Start with the Gospel of John to familiarize yourself with the divinity of Jesus. Then John’s letters. Then Book of Matthew which shows his human side and ministry which is divided into three parts: Year 1 is the year of obscurity. Year 2 is the year of popularity. Year 3 is the year of oppression which culminates in many spiritual attacks by the religious leaders and subsequent crucifixion. Then study the letters of Paul starting with Romans because this letter is a course in theology. Then maybe Letter to the Ephesians because this letter teaches God’s view of how our relationships should be with Him, our spouses, our children, and others et al. You can also purchase fairly cheaply a bible topical guide which is indexed by human situations and references scriptures that apply. Also seek a good teaching church by asking friends and visiting several to determine which one is the best fit for you. Many have some sort of beginner class. IF you look online for Lambs Chapel, Burlington NC, Pastor Biggers has all of his lectures on line and on youtube. You can find these lectures at “” These are very good lectures and he has a very good delivery style, and most importantly he sticks to the scriptures and does not add or delete from them, and he calls a spade a spade. Best wishes to you on your journey!

  4. Frank stetson

    He said independent Christian, that’s one who doesn’t go the church 😃

    • Tom

      Good one Frank. Actually I attend several Christian churches, all of them are independent in that they are not affiliated with a specific Christian sect like Baptist or Evangelical, etc. . Perhaps it would have been better if I had said that I am registered as an Independent voter and also a Christian. 🙂

  5. AC

    Funny Frank, it’s all about word order. Christian independent vs independent Christian That which is first modifies the other. I am all about the former, but am acquainted with a good number of the later. The majority of which are conservative Republicans.
    Now reverse the order and it’s Republican conservatives.
    What’s the difference in that case?

    Now, Larry, Ido believe DeSantis needs to hear your counsel. He is your governor. Why wouldn’t he listen.
    On the House’s change over in the new session. You must feel like you’re strutting in waist deep cotton. Your season of discontent may soon be over.
    But, the list you keep on wrongs done by the left, democrats, as well as a number of Republicans, most notably, Herr Trump are minor shenanigans compared to your right wing patriots in arms’ misadventures with the Constitution.
    Just a question for you pertaining to the notion of hate, particularly how it is that with so many persons with power and authority working grievously at odds with your perspective and given how driven you appear in writing disparagingly of those that obviously disgust you. Hate runs deep and all through each sentence of every paragraph. Hate comes cloaked in a thin disguise,. Nonetheless, by any other name its actions in words on s page give its true identity away, as gut felt hate.
    Commentaries past you have repeated the refrain, that you bear hate for not one person. The objective facts on which logical correlation depend just are not there. The evidence for doubt is found with reading the consistency in theme that pervades in your commentary history. Clearly. the politically and philosophically left minded persons are similarly judged to be hateful destroyers of this our sacred Republic. What, then, is not to hate of the left.
    Having known several persons who veritable exuded hate in their distain for some segment of the population. Those “others “ defined to be the enemy against civilized society. And, no rational thinking person would believe the author who writes centered on hate with no respect intended for the left in general.
    Hate is the elemental dehumanization of the object of that personal objectionable. The statement made that separating person from hateful act is routinely part of conscious compartmenting for rationality.
    There is continuity between opinions had of those not “us” caliber fail the human test. Options rule the mind and are seldom and never transgressed. Logic’s objectivity contradicts the possibility for disabling hate extinguishing at will.
    Bearing no ill will not judgement, my world view can not justify 180 degree flips on existentially fundamental suppositions,. President Biden, every Democrat policy is ruinous, the left always acts for it own interests,.
    What, after all, does the Republican Party intend ever, always, and coming soon, but revenge, taking back their presumed rightful power, denying the other side an inch. You talk about bipartisan coming together as beneficial, it is. But. the appetite for working across the isle appears nonexistent. Agreed, working in a bipartisan fashion is an acquired taste few will invest in.
    This not a place for a grumpy old man, set in a fixed opinion. Unfortunately, grooming impressionable minded uneducated, and unfamiliar with fact checking sourcing. Apparently, the idea that an educated population benefits the nation, has left the station for the last time..

    • Tom

      I am registered Independent / Unaffiliated. Generally my views are moderate but can be very slightly right or very slightly left depending on the issue, not conservative Republican. I enjoy the widest field of opinions possible. Some opinions teach me more patience and forbearance than others, but I value them all. Behind every issue is a cause and an effect relationship. I seek to find the truth of the cause and understand all of the effects of new and changed policies. I vote for whatever candidate I feel will do the most good for the most people without doing to much damage to the country over all.

      • frank stetson

        er, I would say roughly right…..and I mean it :>) I see your slight, both ways, but you have a few harder right opinions, like on immigrants. Most moderates would call for a less harsh treatment than you do. IMO.

        I, myself am a Clintonian Democrat meaning to the left on social issues and to the right on economic issues, although not hard right in that I believe in spending, just good spending with a business case proving profit to the nation. Funny though, being conservative on the money-side looks anti-conservative today……so sad. And that’s Bill Clinton, not the other one.

        That’s why Trump’s tax cuts and spending gall me the same way but different, twice. It’s the most egregious fake stoking of the economy that I have ever seen with a loss, not a profit, as the outcome. You can’t claim “mission accomplished” when you turn in the lowest GDP growth rates since Hoover. That’s call a recession waiting to happen. And it did.

        My second bugaboo is Bush’s interest payment for excess reserves, activated by Obama to quell any inflation from his massive money giveaways. We the people only pay .15% interest, but this account grew from nothing during Bush, to
        1.7t under Obama, basically his entire stimulus, to over $3t today. That’s $4.5b in interest the taxpayer’s pay the banks to park their money. And park it they do. You do the math on the expansion value of $3t if it hits the economy. And there is nothing to stop it, if it seems in the bank’s best interest. You think stimulus inflation is bad? You think the housing meltdown before the great recession was bad? If this pimple pops, you ain’t seen nothing baby…. There will be nothing. And nobody, except maybe Warren and Porter, even cares……oh well.

    • larry Horist

      Ac …. You call my writings hateful, when in FACT i have never hated. Perhaps because you may indulge hatred, you cannot conceive of others not hating. I have certainly known the temptation to hate, but I prefer to not go there. Perhaps you cannot embrace the idea of having dislike, disrespect and disagreement without taking it to the extreme of hatred. The distinction is that dislike, etc. focus on the issue. Hate focuses on the person in an ad hominin manner. That does not mean do not have strong feelings and opinions. I just do not hate the person. You do not need hatred to achieve accountability. I have utmost contempt for what Putin is doing in Ukraine, and I would be thrilled if he were defeated, put on trial for war crimes and imprisoned for the rest of his short life. I would consider it justice if someone knocked him off for his evil deeds. But that does not mean I hate him in a personal way. I think you fail to see a barrier between disrespect and hate — and you are projecting you own approach onto me. Since you do not know me, I suggest that you take me at my word that I do not hate.

  6. Grace Bruno

    The only man the Left is afraid of is Trump. I ‘ve seen what he can do for the country and I’ll stick with the best president in my lifetime. And after looking into the people backing DeSantis including Obama donors and Joe Scarborough and Chris Christie and all the Bushes I’m not interested.

  7. larry Horist

    Grace Bruno … Where do you go if Trump is not longer President and will not be in the future? As he descends jnto history, others must take his place. And you should not base our opinion on misinformation. Scarborough is a vicious DeSantis critic — as he is of Trump. Not sure who you mean by “Obama donors” and I have not heard what Christie has said about DeSantis, but then again, Christie is a potential rival for 2024.