Democrats win Special Election in New York State … and other races

One of the things I like about MSNBC’s polling and election analyst Steve Kornacki is that he generally avoids undue political spin in his reports. However, I was a little disappointed in his interpretation of the victory of Democrat Pat Ryan (51.1%) over Republican Marc Molinaro (48.9%) in New York’s 19^th Congressional District – a one-point squeaker.  In terms of Kornacki, it was more a matter of emphasis than error.

According to Kornacki, the race has monumental implications for the upcoming midterm elections.  Based on his report, you might believe that Democrats are on their way to maintaining control of the House.  He repeated – with great emphasis – that this was a VERY significant race.  I do not agree.

Of the five Special Elections in the past year or so, this is the only one Republicans lost – four were Districts that Trump had won in 2020.  One was a District that Biden had won.  Kornacki correctly noted that the GOP candidates had won by lower margins than Trump – suggesting some Republican fall off.  Fair enough.

New York’s 19^th District was carried by Biden in 2020, Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2008 and 2012.  It was a congressional seat held by the Democrats.  Ryan did not flip the seat.  It was not a Republican district by any calculation – a one-time swing district with the most recent votes trending to the Democrats.  And after all, this is New York – a state in which Democrats have been tightening their grip in recent years.

Nadler wins

The mishandled redistricting in New York created something of a circular firing squad in which a number of Democrat incumbents were forced to oppose each other in the same district.  The most notable race had pint-sized House Judiciary Chairman Jerry Nadler mud wrestling with former ally and friend, Carolyn Maloney, Chair of the powerful House Oversight Committee.

Both being very strident hardline lefties, the former friends engaged in one of the nastiest primaries in the country.  Perhaps that is because defeat was a political career ending event for the loser since both are well into their 70s.

In the larger picture, the outcome makes no change in the political firmament.  Politically, both Nadler and Maloney are fungible figures.  But for conservative Republicans, it was a little like watching Mafia mobsters knock each other off. (It is my Chicago background.)

Crist gets another chance

Democrat (nee independent, nee Republican) Charlie Crist has been given yet another chance at statewide office in Florida by beating Florida Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried in the 2022 primary. Or more likely, another chance to again be defeated for statewide office.  

Since jumping ship, Crist has been defeated by Marco Rubio and Rick Scott.  In facing off with Florida’s popular Governor Ron DeSantis, this is likely to be Crist’s last hurrah.

Democrat Congresswoman Val Demings won the nomination to go up against Rubio – overwhelming a nominal opponent with more than 80 percent of the vote in the Democrat primary.  She will be more threatening to Rubio than Crist is to DeSantis but is not likely to defeat the two-term Senator and one-time presidential candidate.  The only polls that show her ahead are those with dubious credibility or obvious political biases.

Summary

While Tuesday’s primaries involved two of the biggest states in the Union, the results did not tell us a lot about the future.  I do not see the same level of importance in the New York 19^th District as does Kornacki.  Yes … there does appear to be some tamping down of the Republican wave, but nothing that gives Democrats much of a chance at holding the House.

Based on the lower margins in Republican victories and losses, a drop in fundraising, and a tie in the enthusiasm gap, there is no doubt that the GOP has lost some steam.  It has been a one/two punch of Roe v. Wade and the hyperbolic attack on the Republican Brand – especially from the left-wing media that is all in as a political component of the Democratic Party.

The November midterms are still the Republicans to lose – but they have been known to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

So, there ‘tis.