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Democrats may be losing their voting base

Democrats may be losing their voting base

There are three constituencies that Democrats consider key elements of their political base – Blacks, Hispanics and Jews.  The current policies of the radical progressive Democrats who currently control the party may be undermining that support.


There has been a subtle shift in the Black vote for several years.  It is a pushback against the growing realization that it is the de facto racist policies of the major city political machines that have kept Blacks segregated, uneducated, impoverished, unemployed and unsafe. 

The immigration crisis that is now hitting those cities has increased tension between Blacks and Hispanics and between Blacks and the Democrat city administrations that have created the Sanctuary Cities that are drawing immigrants to America  and to the major cities. 

In Chicago and New York, Black citizens have been angrily protesting the arrival of thousands of migrants – and the locating of them in public facilities, such as parks and football fields, in Black communities.  The news images of Blacks yelling at Democrat city officials and mayors is now a common image in modern America. 

These actions have meaning.  They offer Republicans a golden opportunity to connect the dots between Democrat leadership and race-related grievances.  Even a five to ten percent switch in Black voting would create a red wave of unprecedented proportions.


The Democrat hold on the Hispanic vote has been more tenuous than the Black vote.  Hispanics are a much larger voting bloc and include a higher percentage of Republican voters.  Like the Black vote, however, the trend has been favoring the GOP.

Democrats appear to have made an incorrect assumption regarding Hispanic voters.  They seemed to have assumed that because the vast majority of illegal border crossers are Hispanic, the local communities would be welcoming – and would appreciate the Democrats’ open border policies.

Those who proffered that theory failed to realize that the Hispanic citizens would be hit the hardest by the increase in crime, gang activities and drugs that would come to the Hispanic communities in greater proportion.  It is their sons being recruited into gangs … their daughters being raped … their homes being invaded … their children being killed.

The conditions at the border are already resulting in a measurable shift in voter preference in border communities to the Republican Party.  Several Democrat officials – including the mayor of Dallas — have made that switch.


And now potentially the Jews. Jews have long had a significant membership in the Democratic Party.  Part of the reason was the belief that antisemitism had deeper roots in the Republican Party – despite the GOP’s historic opposition to white supremacy and Nazi groups.

Some in the Jewish community had previously expressed concerns over President Obama’s shift in policy from all in for Israel to an approach more favorable to the Palestinians.  But the Jewish vote has long been divided on the Issue of Israel.  Many American Jews have been highly critical of conservative polices under leaders like Benjamin Netanyahu.  There have even been “Jews of Palestine” advocacy groups.

The center of gravity among Jews on the issue of Israel may be going through dramatic change in view of the Hamas attack on Israel.  It has brought into sharper focus that Hamas, Hezbollah and other radical Islamic terrorist organizations do not only oppose Israeli policies.  They want the nation obliterated and Jews EVERYWHERE to be killed.  Jihadism is genocide, and the Jewish community has understood that for decades.  It is now becoming much clearer that within the Democratic Party there has developed an influential pro-Palestinian bloc.

The problem for the Democratic Party is that the modern version of progressive politics is infected with a growing influence of antisemitism.  This is witnessed in the growing number of Democrats in Congress who harbor anti-Israel and antisemitic beliefs … the pro-Palestine rallies … and the pro-Palestine reporting on the leftwing networks. (More about that in a future commentary).

While Biden says America is steadfast in its support of Israel, the influence of the radical anti-Israel faction is increasing its influence in the Democratic Party.  The question is whether the greater Jewish community – that has been loyal to the Democratic Party – will see its future with the GOP and its consistent pro-Israel policies.


Even a small erosion in the Democrats’ support from Blacks, Hispanics and Jews will have a devastating impact on the Party’s ability to win elections in the future.   While recent polls send up red flags for Democrats, it will be the vote in November 2024 that will show if there is a seismic political shift in the offing or a just a polling blip one year ahead of the actual vote.

So, there ‘tis.

About The Author

Larry Horist

So,there‘tis… The opinions, perspectives and analyses of Larry Horist Larry Horist is a businessman, conservative writer and political strategist with an extensive background in economics and public policy. Clients of his consulting firm have included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman. He has served as a consultant to the Nixon White House and travelled the country as a spokesman for President Reagan’s economic reforms. He has testified as an expert witness before numerous legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress. Horist has lectured and taught courses at numerous colleges and universities, including Harvard, Northwestern, DePaul universities, Hope College and his alma mater, Knox College. He has been a guest on hundreds of public affairs talk shows, and hosted his own program, “Chicago In Sight,” on WIND radio. Horist was a one-time candidate for mayor of Chicago and served as Executive Director of the City Club of Chicago, where he led a successful two-year campaign to save the historic Chicago Theatre from the wrecking ball. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries appear frequently on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He is praised by readers for his style, substance and sense of humor. According to one reader, Horist is the “new Charles Krauthammer.” He is actively semi-retired in Boca Raton, Florida where he devotes his time to writing. So, there ‘tis is Horist’s signature sign off.


  1. Joe lucas

    There’s still voter fraud

    • larry Horist

      Joe lucas …. While I am no fan of the Trump personality, I have never given my opinion as to whether the 2020 election was stolen or not. That is because I do not think it is relevant to the future. Frankly, I wish Trump would stop talking about it — and talk more about the current and future issues. BUT … you are not wrong. Vote fraud still exists — and can affect the outcomes of political races. It is rarely prosecuted for many reason — and that is what makes some claim it does not exist. To put it into a different context. Everyday we see motorists not using the turn signals as required by law. If you check the court record, it would be hard to find many people being citied. You could then claim — falsely — that no one disobeys the turn signal law. Yes Joe, vote fraud does exist no matter what one thinks of the outcome of the 2020 election.

      • frank stetson

        do you have actual proof of “Vote fraud still exists — and can affect the outcomes of political races.” Specifically in a Federal election for Federal office? Since that’s what Trump is lying about…..

  2. Tony L Bell

    Ironically, democrat governing policies have become their worst enemy and the GOP’s best election advertising. Another in a long line of testimony to democrats lack of intellect and plain common sense.

    • frank stetson

      Tony, I’m a democrat and I have intellect; I have been tested :>)

      As to common sense, again, I have been instilled with much by my Mother, a fiery Democrat who would kick your measly fat white ass, in rhetoric of course.

      Economically, on the numbers, the nation fares better under Democrats.

      Socially, I believe so to.

      BUT — in either case, I love having you folks around as a check to our balance which can be too woke, too liberal, at times.

      Too bad you feel that half the nation has a lack of intellect and plain common sense. Your neighbors probably appreciate your kind sentiments.

      • Tom

        Wow Frank, your comment is very intellectual!! :>) God bless your mama but I seem to recall a confession post where you stated you went against your mother’s good advice when you were young. Thank you for being a Dem. And I thank Larry for being a GOP. I value both of your opinions. You both make me very happy that I am an Independent/unaffiliated voter. You both help me form my positions on the issues because you both provide boundaries where I do not want to go. Most of us Independents are former politically pubescent Dems and GOPs that have politically matured and evolved to the next higher level of intellect. We await your arrival! :>)

        • frank stetson

          There’s no BUT there sir. Yes, I am not the Democrat my Mother was. She was much farther left than I. Perhaps it was the poverty growing up, the war, the racism in the 40’s n 50’s, whatever. I was that way once I stopped working the elections with her.

          Do you really think Independents are more objective than Dems or Repubs? Not bloody likely, but it is trendy not to pick a side, claim objectivity, and then vote the same way, every time, just like people who pick a party. You just like to pretend you are better which sometimes seems to be more important than objectivity.

          • Tom

            Actually yes I do think that Independents are more objective than Dems or Repubs. After the last election cycle, many Repubs left the GOP because of Trump and the election failures. Also many moderate Dems left the Dem party. These were not a trendy move, this was a statement against the Dem and GOP parties. Both Dems and GOP parties do not look at all of the results and for the most part are in denial of the damage they are collectively doing to our country. Independents want results for the most people and to do the most good. Most of us are moderates which by its own nature tend to be more objective. Your minimizing of Independents will not excuse the fact that Independents are the largest voting block, and this is not trendy, no, it is because of the failures of both parties. Kennedy is the latest to defect and I am sure he did not do it because it was trendy. He did it because Dem party failure of not giving him a voice and a chance to compete. OUCH!!! That gotta hurt! But I still feel you are a Stetson among a sea of ballcaps my friend, even if you are a little misguided! I value your opinions! Thank you for your response that just proved my point as to why we are the largest voting block!

          • frank stetson

            Kennedy is a nut and the party, and his family, are better off for his latest move.

            He will be an afterthought soon.

            Sure, you are more objective. Tell yourself that.

            It’s like you believe there’s Dems and Pubs who suck in the party platform lock, stock n barrel, and never vote or even have an opinion outside of the party platform. While you are a blank slate waiting for objective inspiration to chart your path.

            We all have baggage, preconceived notions, experiential learning. Slapping the Indy label on does not change that. I have no doubt that if we look to your voting record we will see a pattern and that pattern will include non-objective elements just like mine.

            It’s not party —- it’s a point of view. Independent of party names, the point of view has remained pretty much the same since the Founders. I would be an independent today except that would take away my primary rights —- and I want those.

          • Tom

            In North Carolina I can vote in either primary but I can only vote in one primary. It makes a lot of sense to be an independent. I understand your desire to vote in primaries, and I agree! Sorry you lose your primary rights in NJ. Sounds like intra-party voting collusion to me!

            I agree, Kennedy is a bit of a nut but he is worrying the Dem party. I guess they figure their nuts will vote for him. Our choices will be: Demented, or Narcissist, or Nut.

            You are correct and have often stated how Repub election deniers have done exactly what you are saying, “Pubs who suck in the party platform lock, stock n barrel, “. Me thinks you are correct, and that this applies to both sides. Independents do not have affiliation to party by definition, so they do not suck in party platform lock stock and barrel.

            I have belonged to both parties in the past. But I realized the error of those ways and evolved. Again, thank you for your comments. I appreciate them and you!

  3. Steelyal

    Why has the black community realized that since LBJ they have been ask to vote Democrat, but have been warehoused in cities. They have been lied to.

    • Paul blankenship

      Tom you should move to Boonville NC. Life is beautiful there. And the town ain’t polluted by communism like the larger towns

  4. George

    The Dems have screwed up EVERYTHING, from Afghanistan, to the borders & sanctuary cities, trying to disarm law-abiding citizens so terrrorists can waltz in and kill us, destroying our energy and FORCING Americans to accept their lunatic policies and NOW THE WORLD IS AN INFERNO due to Biden’s feckless White House which is run by an incompetent. Are you better off today than you were 3 years ago? Think about THAT when you pull that lever or mail in that absentee ballot. There’s no way to go but DOWN with Biden’s insane programs!

  5. Tom

    For the most part I agree with you Larry but I have not seen much of any shift in my area.

    Black citizens are still “perception voters”. They do not look at the facts. They listen to far left Dem black congress women, Sharptons, and others, and gobble down the impression these folks are attempting to sell. Then that impression becomes their reality. Dems know this. I have black friends. I have asked them for years to look at the facts, and I even showed them statistics, etc. They still voted Dems. Old habits like voting Dem and greasy Friday catfish fries are very hard to break.

    I do think you are very correct about the Hispanic community. The Dem error here is the assumption that the Hispanic community is monolithic. Truth is they do not all think the same. The Dem party thinks that Hispanic citizenry will have sympathy for illegals because once they were illegal. But this is not true. Many Hispanics in the USA came here legally. And the Hispanics that came here legally loath the illegals running over the border. I also came upon an interesting stat that once illegals are here, gain citizenship and establish businesses or decent jobs, and are rooted, many of them flip to GOP. Hispanics have really never been a stable population for Dem votes like the black population.

    Jews are an interesting population to figure out. I have a Jewish brother-in-law. He is not a practicing Jew, and he is rather liberal. Its seems to me that liberal Jews are the ones who have voted for Dems in the past and now see how liberal Dem policies have played out for their relatives in Israel. Tlaib, AOC, and the squad have not done any favors to the Dem party by being so pro-Palestinian and overtly condemning of Israel. Liberal college campus pro-Palestinian demonstrations do not do Dems any good. Nor is Trump doing any good for the GOP by broadcasting that “Hamas is smart.” Conservative Jews mostly seem to vote GOP because it is conservatism over Jewery, and Trump’s comment probably won’t matter to them. I think the Jewish population is the population most in flux. If Trump is the GOP nominee I predict less Jews will come over to the GOP. They will not forget his pro-Hamas statement made last week. Personally, I do not think Biden likes the Jewish population, and he has snubbed them as has Obama. But Biden is slick, he realizes he needs this voting block so he will not let this crisis go to waste. But I think it will take more snubbings until they wake up.

    Kennedy may be the wild card with these populations. How will they think of Kennedy since he was a Dem is anyone’s guess.

    • frank stetson

      Oh yeah brother, you all have found the holy grail.

      Blacks are stupid to follow Democrats.
      Hispanics are diverse and Democrats are too stupid to figure that out.
      Jews are complex.
      Kennedy is a wild card.

      Oh yeah buddy, you guys got this one nailed. The only hope Democrats have is the impossible dream that Republicans clusterfuck this up all over the place. Bans on everything, Retribution, revenge and retaliation as a way of life, inability to do anything except bloviate on Fox, libel for defamation, lying, hate speak and more, criminally guiity of fraud, tax cheating, business records cheating and more —— nah, that clusterfuck could never happen.

      Is it “ten more reasons to vote for Biden” time yet?

      • Tom

        Frank, oh yeah, your knickers are rattled. Why else would you call Blacks stupid when nobody else has done this. In my discussion I was referring to my Black friends who definitely do vote on perception rather than data on many issues. But I did not say all issues. You do have a good point that Dem Party may be too stupid to figure out Hispanics, their actions sure do seem to show it. Yes you are correct, the Jewish voting block does appear to be more complex, I agree with you on this. And I agree with you that Kennedy is a wild card and as you said earlier, “a nut”. As you are a Dem I consider you more informed on Kennedy.

        LOL I agree with you on GOP. They can screw up a wet dream! IF anyone can mess up an advantage and pull defeat out of the jaws of victory, it is the GOP. They proved it in the 2022 “trickle”, ahhhh the wave that keeps on waving bye bye!!! The independent voting block grew thanks to the GOP screw up and the liberal Dems that got elected. My thanks to both parties for helping others evolve!

        Yes, why don’t you tell us for the twentieth time the ten reasons to vote Biden. I love those posts! They help people evolve from political neophytes to robust Independents! Go for it Frank!!! I will check back later. We have had a lot of rain and I must cut my smart lawn.

        And GO PHILLIES!!!!

        • frank stetson

          “Black citizens are still “perception voters”. They do not look at the facts.” Try that and the rest of your rant with your “black friends.” Ought to go over grand. Also, others here pretty much concluded that the black just can’t figure it out.

          Not that important, I get it. Black vote democrat. Some are leaving. How can the rest be so dumb to let Dems dump on them to dump them in dumps. De dom dump.

          At this point, we can string about ten Hoist articles pretty much saying Dems don’t stand a chance.

          Apparently he is not following the money, and while ideas are the important part, money matters and can make a difference. Speaking of which….. see ya :>)

          • frank stetson

            By request, ten reasons to vote Biden as told by Donald J Trump, first twice-impeached sexual abusing President capable of defaming all women in a single bound.

            Welcome to the Covid addition with a Hillary kicker. Remember, you guys focused on the horror’s of the mask, the changing mask recommendations, and vilifying the man who told you to protect yourself with the mask, social distancing, etc. FYI: no one has died from wearing a mask. No one has died by being 6 feet away from others. And you may see a few changing recommendations from the deal master who lost his businesses so many times in fostering his brilliant method of how to succeed in business without really trying: Dad’s money and cheating whenever you can.

            1. ‘I’ve felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic.” Too bad he forgot to tell anyone……instead he went with:

            2. “China has been working very hard to contain the coronavirus, the United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well.” It did work out well for the virus thanks to Trump.

            3. “So when we have a lot of cases, I don’t look at that as a bad thing. I look at that as, in a certain respect, as being a good thing because it means our testing is much better. So I view it as a badge of honor. Really, it’s a badge of honor.” And the million dead get a gold star for their caskets.

            4. “Suppose that we hit the body with a tremendous, whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful light. Supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way.” Sure beats his Clorox final solution.

            5. “Within a couple of days, [infections are] going to be down to close to zero. One day, it’s like a miracle. It will disappear.”

            6. “I always treated the Chinese Virus very seriously, and have done a very good job from the beginning.” Yeah, like “couple of days?” Like he knew it was a pandemic but didn’t tell anyone. What he said instead was it was going away. And how he alone solved it with light, step into the light, that’ll fix it. And you will get a gold star.

            7. “No. Not at all. We have it totally under control.” Yeah, he’s got the best doctors, the experimental drugs, immediate access, and 24/7 constant care. Just like the rest of us.

            8. It’s one person coming in from China and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”

            9. “In another sense, I tested positively toward negative, right? So no. I tested perfectly this morning, meaning I tested negative. But that’s a way of saying it. Positively toward the negative.” And you said Fauci was confusing?

            10. And the Hillary kicker: “She gets to pick her judges, nothing you can do, folks. Although the second amendment people, maybe there is, I don’t know. But I’ll tell you what, that will be a horrible day.” Horrible for who? The guy who suggested violence or the lady who receives it? Maybe there is something you and the 2A people can do: suck on it.

          • Tom

            Actually Frank, if you reread my post, I was talking about what me and my black friends discussed when we were in my living room. And yes, they were rather silent when they realized that their perception was different than the statistics. And we just left it at that. Yes, Larry will always say Dems don’t have a chance. Truth is, I see it as a coin flip right now. Larry is following surveys and polls that he never reveals so I take such comments rather lightly. I think if the GOP runs Trump then the Dems will have a good chance because more Independents will most likely break for Biden but some will go with Trump. Yes money matters so do give till it hurts to the Dem cause. And as always, thanks for your comments!

          • larry Horist

            Tom … I have never said that Democrats do not have a chance. I think 2024 is too close even now to make any such claims. You stand corrected. And when I have reported on polling results, I name them. I will refer to polls generally only after their results have become common knowledge. Since you are a political groupie, you should not need to be shown the polling. You do not follow the polls as they are reported? I did not give stats on the numbers shifting to GOP candidates because i covered that in the past — and that fact has been widely reported.

  6. Darren

    This is where So many fail to understand Trump.
    Trump is NOT a republican, he had no choice but to represent him self with
    the Fxxked up Republican name.
    There has not been a good Republican President in the last 40 years.
    Democratic Presidents are just one step lower pan handling to the lowest common denominator of the
    Trump should be considered an Independent especially as most Republicans in office at the time he was President were against him.
    The Democratic base of Black, Hispanic, Poor, are slowly becoming educated and realizing the Dem party uses them.
    How many Republicans have changed party’s in the last two years, ( Besides Liz Chaney ). She is so fare up the Bushes asses she does colon screening for them.
    But a few have left the Democratic party knowing they are just crooked.
    It is easy to educate low IQ people if they are willing to learn. Well some, not the few who have negative comments here.
    As long as the Republicans do NOT go back to LYING to the people as past Dam and Rep presidents did, the country will
    straighten out as we the people may have a say, Thank you Trump!
    Good article Larry.

  7. AC

    This commentary does appear as the reprise of your previous opinion statements positing in each yet another punch aimed at his country’s Democratic Party. Nothing added or new in today’s edition relative to your admitted devout conservative Republican identity. In all, considering current tension and war atrocities on both sides which extremists commit, you fall lockstep in a place of judgement predictably biased.
    You dredge up broad allegations against the Democratic Party, pro-ported by you as true fact intelligent persons commonly accept. Our nation’s southern boarder situation is dire and chaotic in terms of humanitarian conditions and justice served.
    What’s not being done on our side of he border is on both parties, meaning all of us, including you and me.
    The same is true regarding racial bias based discrimination against Black, Hispanic, Asian, and any race seen as “other”. Add to these are folks finding themselves poor, defenseless, indigent, starving, substance addicted, abused, and otherwise out of sight out of mind.
    Republican Party identifying persons occupy higher than average social status, economic security, accessibility to top education through lower grades and high school, availability to college entrance and professional education. It follows what has been said that of those much has been given, much is expected.
    Republicans laying blame for social, economic, and injustices in law at the feet of Democrats are weak and reality denying arrogant ugly Americans. Democrats claiming high ground moral and political do themselves a dis-service. Like their Republican Party counterparts they are negligent in attempting to govern while not listening, not hearing alternate views, and not taking a long view regardless of elections . Elections are needed, but not all important. The vote is but one part in running our nation’s democratic governing iteration. The elected are supposed to work for us , the people. We are the employers, while they are the employees. Arrogance in office has supplanted humility seeking the will.
    Sadly, this arrogance we see in those holding office is representative, our nation’s population is by majority made up of mentally arrogant personalities that combined with deep entitlement convictions gives reason that those elected officials from among said population are the same stripe. So, who then is to blame? All are responsible fanning the fire that seemingly will not extinguish
    Look to wars and delve into what grievances begat this most tragic evolution between peoples and nations. Why did Putin attack Ukrainian? It was not for justice and equanimity for peace with Ukraine.
    His motivation was and is dark, self serving, arrogant greed, and unrelenting megalomaniacal in nature.
    Then, study with in its several thousands of years context the why of Israel’s and Arab Palestinian’s long history of animosity. It’s seems engrained with-in those on both sides. It’s a simmering cauldron brought to boil over when either party’s provocation . This last boiling point resulted the assault of Israel by
    Palestinian factions.
    Context unrelated to WWII post war arrangements for Israel what remains is both lay claim to ownership rights to the same property patch on Earth. Both base possession on this region on ancestral homeland fact. Proof to of this argument presented by each party conflicts one with the other. While both stories may seem probable to the random outsider. Neither has evidence sufficiently convincing to the other.
    War after war waged does not bring peace between these arch rivals.
    Although, the USA and others have called both parties to the peace table and hosted several. What agreements may have resulted, none has endured.
    Some American politicians from time to time claim bragging rights and seek acclaim. Yet, here the world is again. Both sides sue for sympathy and military aid from those of their supporting nations.
    Will this ever end? Not so, with mankind’s efforts only employed.
    If justice for all involved becomes a mutually agreeable goal, final attainment may not come soon, or until the present generation’s time has pasted.

    • Joe lucas

      Frank is lying again

  8. LibsWorshipSatan

    Of course, that is why the leftist politicians want open borders – so they get an influx of new voters who are to naive and inexperienced to realize that they’re just voting themselves into eventual enslavement at the hands of the American socialist party that calls themselves “Democrats”. Just say they’re “asylum seekers” and fast-track them to citizenship…VOILA! Instant new voter base!

    • Frank stetson

      Roll it out one more time Tom.

      Told ya you would need it again.

      And again…….