Democrats may be losing their voting base
There are three constituencies that Democrats consider key elements of their political base – Blacks, Hispanics and Jews. The current policies of the radical progressive Democrats who currently control the party may be undermining that support.
There has been a subtle shift in the Black vote for several years. It is a pushback against the growing realization that it is the de facto racist policies of the major city political machines that have kept Blacks segregated, uneducated, impoverished, unemployed and unsafe.
The immigration crisis that is now hitting those cities has increased tension between Blacks and Hispanics and between Blacks and the Democrat city administrations that have created the Sanctuary Cities that are drawing immigrants to America and to the major cities.
In Chicago and New York, Black citizens have been angrily protesting the arrival of thousands of migrants – and the locating of them in public facilities, such as parks and football fields, in Black communities. The news images of Blacks yelling at Democrat city officials and mayors is now a common image in modern America.
These actions have meaning. They offer Republicans a golden opportunity to connect the dots between Democrat leadership and race-related grievances. Even a five to ten percent switch in Black voting would create a red wave of unprecedented proportions.
The Democrat hold on the Hispanic vote has been more tenuous than the Black vote. Hispanics are a much larger voting bloc and include a higher percentage of Republican voters. Like the Black vote, however, the trend has been favoring the GOP.
Democrats appear to have made an incorrect assumption regarding Hispanic voters. They seemed to have assumed that because the vast majority of illegal border crossers are Hispanic, the local communities would be welcoming – and would appreciate the Democrats’ open border policies.
Those who proffered that theory failed to realize that the Hispanic citizens would be hit the hardest by the increase in crime, gang activities and drugs that would come to the Hispanic communities in greater proportion. It is their sons being recruited into gangs … their daughters being raped … their homes being invaded … their children being killed.
The conditions at the border are already resulting in a measurable shift in voter preference in border communities to the Republican Party. Several Democrat officials – including the mayor of Dallas — have made that switch.
And now potentially the Jews. Jews have long had a significant membership in the Democratic Party. Part of the reason was the belief that antisemitism had deeper roots in the Republican Party – despite the GOP’s historic opposition to white supremacy and Nazi groups.
Some in the Jewish community had previously expressed concerns over President Obama’s shift in policy from all in for Israel to an approach more favorable to the Palestinians. But the Jewish vote has long been divided on the Issue of Israel. Many American Jews have been highly critical of conservative polices under leaders like Benjamin Netanyahu. There have even been “Jews of Palestine” advocacy groups.
The center of gravity among Jews on the issue of Israel may be going through dramatic change in view of the Hamas attack on Israel. It has brought into sharper focus that Hamas, Hezbollah and other radical Islamic terrorist organizations do not only oppose Israeli policies. They want the nation obliterated and Jews EVERYWHERE to be killed. Jihadism is genocide, and the Jewish community has understood that for decades. It is now becoming much clearer that within the Democratic Party there has developed an influential pro-Palestinian bloc.
The problem for the Democratic Party is that the modern version of progressive politics is infected with a growing influence of antisemitism. This is witnessed in the growing number of Democrats in Congress who harbor anti-Israel and antisemitic beliefs … the pro-Palestine rallies … and the pro-Palestine reporting on the leftwing networks. (More about that in a future commentary).
While Biden says America is steadfast in its support of Israel, the influence of the radical anti-Israel faction is increasing its influence in the Democratic Party. The question is whether the greater Jewish community – that has been loyal to the Democratic Party – will see its future with the GOP and its consistent pro-Israel policies.
Even a small erosion in the Democrats’ support from Blacks, Hispanics and Jews will have a devastating impact on the Party’s ability to win elections in the future. While recent polls send up red flags for Democrats, it will be the vote in November 2024 that will show if there is a seismic political shift in the offing or a just a polling blip one year ahead of the actual vote.
So, there ‘tis.