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Democrats may be facing a GOP juggernaut in 2022

Democrats may be facing a GOP juggernaut in 2022

If you are of the opinion that the 2021 off-year elections did not go well for the Democrats, 2022 may be a catastrophe for the donkey party.  At least that is what the latest polling shows.

As a disclaimer, we must keep in mind that the midterm elections are almost a year away – and as is wisely noted, anything can happen.  We can recall how President Bush the First had an 80 percent favorable rating just six months before he was defeated by Bill Clinton.  And we know how well the pollsters predicted 2016 when Trump was hopelessly behind just days before the election.

But the newest CNBC poll is noteworthy because it is among the more accurate polls – not perfect, but still indicative of things to come.  So ponder this. According to the CNBC poll, Republicans hold a 10-point advantage when American voters are asked which party do the prefer to control Congress.  It is a 44 percent to 34 percent advantage GOP.

To understand what this means, we must put it into perspective.  This is up from a 2-point advantage Republicans had in October.  AND … it is the greatest advantage for the GOP in the history of the CNBC polling.  The previous high-water mark for the Republican Party was a 4-point advantage.  And with those slight statistical advantages, Republicans enjoyed wave elections in 1994 and 2014.  A 10-point lead would indicate a tsunami that would give the GOP the House, the Senate and thousands of offices across the nation.

The Democrat pollster conducting the survey, Jay Campbell, put it very succinctly.  He said, “If the election were tomorrow, it would be an absolute unmitigated disaster for the Democrats.” 

While the question dealt with Congress, such a lopsided number would most certainly mean massive gains for the GOP in state and local offices.  In 2021, for example, Republicans picked up more than one thousand legislative seats.  And that advantage is being reflected in election reform laws and redistricting.

It appears that panic is setting in as top Democrat strategists are giving gloomy forecasts.   Brian Stryker, who was hired to see what went wrong in Virginia declared that “we [Democrats]have a problem.” 

The collapse of Democrat support is across the board.  President Biden’s favorability has dropped another two points.  Democrats and their media supporters may be in denial – but Biden’s popularity is now tracking closer to former President Trump’s polling.  Vice President Harris is in even worse shape.

There also appears to be a collapse on issues.  According to the CNBC poll, of the respondents who favored Democrat control of Congress, climate change dropped from 59 percent to 33 percent as an important issue.  Biden’s numbers on handling the economy have tanked.  Biden has a 19-point gap on the economy with 37 percent approving and 56 percent disapproving.  Six out of ten people believe the nation is going in the wrong direction under Democrat rule in Washington.

The political class attributes the problem to “messaging.”  One time advisor to former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said that Biden’s Build Back Better theme “sounds like a (f-word) fitness plan.”

I would suggest that Democrats have bought into two losing strategies.  The first is based on their belief that it is all a messaging problem. They are operating in the belief that the public has not heard of all the good things they claim to have done – all those giveaways in Biden’s legislation.

In fact, one can hardly watch news for more than five minutes without hearing a litany of all the stuff they think the public should be appreciating.  It is not the message that is failing with the public. It is the policies and programs. In a nutshell, the Democrats are now the leading advocates of a governmental agenda that is simply too far to the left for most of the American people.

The second major strategy mistake is the belief that by hammering and hammering on their bogus narrative that the Republican Party is the enemy of the state – and nothing more than a cult of personality in homage to Trump.  That is not the way voters saw things in the last election — and I dare predict, not the way they will see Republican candidates in 2022.

The Democrats hyperbolic claims that the Republic is on the verge of collapse is just as much of a fairytale as Chicken Little and the Boy Who Cried Wolf.

I can only hope that the summation of one Democrat strategist is correct.  He assessed the situation by lamenting, “It’s too late. We’re (f-word).”

So, there ‘tis.

About The Author

Larry Horist

So,there‘tis… The opinions, perspectives and analyses of Larry Horist Larry Horist is a businessman, conservative writer and political strategist with an extensive background in economics and public policy. Clients of his consulting firm have included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman. He has served as a consultant to the Nixon White House and travelled the country as a spokesman for President Reagan’s economic reforms. He has testified as an expert witness before numerous legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress. Horist has lectured and taught courses at numerous colleges and universities, including Harvard, Northwestern, DePaul universities, Hope College and his alma mater, Knox College. He has been a guest on hundreds of public affairs talk shows, and hosted his own program, “Chicago In Sight,” on WIND radio. Horist was a one-time candidate for mayor of Chicago and served as Executive Director of the City Club of Chicago, where he led a successful two-year campaign to save the historic Chicago Theatre from the wrecking ball. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries appear frequently on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He is praised by readers for his style, substance and sense of humor. According to one reader, Horist is the “new Charles Krauthammer.” He is actively semi-retired in Boca Raton, Florida where he devotes his time to writing. So, there ‘tis is Horist’s signature sign off.

16 Comments

  1. frank stetson

    Well, Democratic strategists need to make a living too :>)

    The key takeaways are Dems are in trouble, got a warning notice, not a mandate from the 2021 elections, and probably have till summer 2022 to rectify. Gonna be a long winter, would be nice to have some freedom in the Spring. Inflation is the biggest wildcard IMO because it is so complex to get a handle on much less effect change via fiscal policy.

    You said: “And that advantage is being reflected in election reform laws and redistricting” combined with “The Democrats hyperbolic claims that the Republic is on the verge of collapse is just as much of a fairytale as Chicken Little and the Boy Who Cried Wolf” which seems to be at cross purposes unless “verge” is just to strong a word. Like the folks on 1/6 claimed they were on the verge of collapse of our Government would be a fairytale. Not so much to those folks on the other side of the door from the Trump weaponized insurrectionists.

    IMO, any election reform law that results in one less valid vote puts the Republic closer to collapse; no one knows where the statistical tipping point is. Sort of like 1/6; some say tourists on parade getting feisty, others say on the brink of a coup.

  2. Ben

    * from those republicans not forced to resign in shame for trying to subvert the democratic process on J6?

    • Sammy knows americans

      like who and what did they do exactly to subvert the democrat process???

  3. Donald

    Deservedly!!!

    • AC

      Larry,
      Better you don’t have your wishes come true.
      Republican Party as it shows its capability for democratic governance at both federal and state level has little or no respect for fellow Americans who do look like them or believe Biden is the legitimate President.
      A political party focused on defeating anything and everything proposed by the other party while offering no positive alternatives or replacements will be clueless when all eyes are on them.
      Standing in the way just for spite as all but a few Republicans have, except on the rare occasion, works against the oath taken as a representative.
      To be sure, Democrats when the shoe was on the other foot and they were the minority dug their heels in, too.
      However, this round has the Republicans working against the democratic process, the vow retaliation against Democrats hold persons accountable. All elected persons have to act knowing they will be held accountable for poor behavior in session, in the media, and online, just naming the top public spaces.
      Larry, no one responsibly want our county’s politics continuing in its downward spiral. What condition does our nation have to devolve into before we the people say, STOP, that’s enough. Accepting reality and acknowledging truth in what is real right in this moment. Not standing stubbornly demanding your rights and freedom to have what you want, desire, and loudly demand. When children behave this way are onlookers sympathetic? No, we see it for what it is, bad behavior needing to be stopped, before the go to far and hurt themselves or others.
      I know this .to what I refer as bed behavior mostly seen done by so called conservative republicans. In one of you posts you mention the use of projection behavior. This behavior is the tactic Donald Trump employed constantly while attempting a smoke screen as a defense. I’m so doing he modeled how projection spins notice away, temporarily. Republicans quickly made his tactic common practice. Blame others loudly and often and eventually you believe it yourself. Others thinks I’m the same way will think it’s true, too
      Lies are ugly as ugly gets and it’s become as American as
      apple pie.

      • Frank stetson

        Boom – you hit the nail on the head.

        Stop accepting lies. Shun the liars. Enough. It’s truth, justice, and the American way. Time for the American way to mete out some justice for fabrication of truth. Either party.

        And I don’t mean mistakes, spins, slight exaggerations, and such; I mean out n out lies. The ones not walked back. The ones not done in error. Starting with the big lie. Don’t believe it? The guy has not conceded the election.

  4. frank stetson

    It’s not all just the Democrats to lose. Beyond being the do-nothing party of just-say-no, these fine ladies and gents continue to shoot at each other and their own feet on a regular basis. Plus, they keep ginning up issues that cut across party lines, and not in a good way, Hey, if the abortion issue trending continues and the SCOTUS does a 180 on the law of the land, there will be a tsunami of Democratic voting. Anyone who has had an abortion and does not want to see the rights granted them stripped away from others; anyone who knows and feels sympathy for said people in said condition. “Today, a 59% majority of U.S. adults say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 39% think abortion should be illegal in all or most cases. These views are relatively unchanged in the past few years.” While that’s an 80/35 split between parties, you know where most of the voters are. 35% of the Republican base voting this issue would be fine for me. Women also poll 10 points higher than men, that works for me too.

    Between abortion, voting rights, the radical right like Greene Gaetz Biggs Harris Massie Gosar and more, and whoever we snare in 1/6 investigation, I wouldn’t count Democrats quite dead yet; I think they might just be napping (as Joe needs to do more that others :>)

    I am pretty sure some of these Republicans will toss their feces upwind in a Kentucky un-climate-change twister and reap what they sow.

    • Sammy knows Americans

      frank, I’m with you….
      all joe needs to do is lower gasoline prices by 2 or 3 cents a gallon next October…. and the mainstream media will convince Americans that everything has changed around, China has given up Taiwan, Russia has given up on the Ukraine, inflation has come to halt, energy independence is back, blm is sponsoring the Pledge of Allegiance at the start of every school day, smash and grabbers returned their merchandise, construction of barbed wire fencing around malls has stopped, blacks have agreed to stop picking on physically inferior white people, all looters from 18 months ago have been forgiven and any/all protesters from Jan 6th have been executed, Rittenhouse has been recharged with a hate crime this time for shooting 3 blacks and killing two of them. (We really know it was only 3 white guys, but most of us democrats swear it was really 3 innocent black guys just minding their own business.)
      Yep, all it will take is 2 or 3 cents and Americans will be convinced….

      • Joseph S. Bruder

        Where I live, gas prices peaked, and have already come back down by 10 cents. The rest of your post is imagined solutions to imagined problems. Of course there will be challenges, but Biden is capable of handling them.

        • Larry kuhn

          The demented fool can’t handle anything. He’s being handled.

          • Frank stetson

            Well, if he was like you and handled himself, he would be blind, like you.

      • George mcguire

        Sambo nothing you said made sense.

    • larry Horist

      Frank. I agree … and have often said .. anything can happen in politics. But as of this moment, the cement is at least beginning to harden on the 2022 election and the trend lines — unless disrupted by some major events — are starting to take shape. The latest projection on inflation is that it could be with us into 2024 — and no that is not a typo. No one yet has seen a mean of changing foreign policy from getting worse. If Russian invades Ukraine, Biden will not do a damn thing that Putin cannot endure. He would be invading full well knowing what will be done and what will will not do — the latter being things that would have actually stopped him. Biden is would kiss off Ukraine just has he kissed of Afghanistan. I doubt China will invade Taiwan, but it is a messier problem since officially Taiwan is considered China property. Biden will not do anything about the border crisis, so that will continue to get worse. And the cultural rise in crime is difficult to stop on a dime … and Democrats are just starting the understand the screwed themselves with the defunding and the attacks on policing. The hyperbolic narrative on the Capitol Hill riot has not resonated with the public — as can be seen in the 2021 off year elections and the polling — and it is losing steam even as more revelations come forward. My sense is that the Dems are overselling that issue. Abortion is not as predictable. It has never been the decisive issue in voting except for the one-issue fringe on both sides. Never a deciding issue. It may be that those who will be outraged by a Supreme Court decision are already activists in the Dem column. Keep in mind that no matter how many times the GOP legislators have limited abolition, they still get reelected. There is nothing in the tea leaves that suggest anything but a strong showing for the GOP in 2022 — probably control of the house and I have increased the odds on the senate to 50/50. Have to wait and see.

      • frank stetson

        Larry, Perhaps. But we both know we are a multitude of political lifetimes away from the vote. Sure, Joe has a tough winter, variants, inflation, etc., but the economy is not totally tanked, just affecting some more than others. For example, my fuel oil price is locked in and I can focus on using the hybrid — actually high gas prices make me swear less at the hybrid’s shortcomings…and, frankly, I am loving it and driving more than ever. Still getting close to 50mpg. So 30% of the inflation spike goes right over my head as well as many other inflated items in the shopping basket that us old folk just don’t need, we have em. Plus, if Taiwan chips come back, LA port backload clears, etc. etc. most portions of the economy doing well and will just be super charged. Could happen as easy as inflation crept up on us.

        My grocery bill took a much bigger inflation hit during 2020 under Trump’s pandemic handling which forced all sorts of purchasing behavior changes, all of which were more expensive. However, so far, have not noticed Biden’s inflation on my food at all. Don’t push back, I think this is luck, a large inventory, and I will see the food prices spikes soon. But not yet.

        Inflation to 2024. Remember that famous economic axiom: ask me 3 months after the recession and I will tell you exactly why it happened…. We will see, but I make it a coin toss and certainly pandemic fueled in many respects.

        I think this will be about choosing sides and I think issues like racism, women’s rights of choice, 1/6, voting rights, even self defense — all will be in the mix, and I disagree that IF Scotus does the abortion 180, there will be a tsunami. Too many already hate that reversal of a decided law, too many have personal experience within that law, and I think they will matter. And their friends.

        1/6 will be political, will be in the Spring n Summer, and will be, at minimum, a PR nightmare for your side. Remember, “on 1/6 they came unprepared, next time….” But the converse is: “for the two impeachments, we were not prepared to catch this slippery snake, next time —–” This team is well experienced at Trump slipping the noose. He always has, but you never know. And yes, Trump will be on the 2022 ticket and we see your side attempting distance at each polling place. But 1/6 might bring that back into focus as a pertinent issue. One never knows.

        Lastly, the fringe. You did not mention that element. I think your side will extrapolate on our Socialists extending their beliefs to any Democrat. However, in reality, the center still holds the reigns for Democrats and for every Socialist elected, there’s a few towards-the-center put in office as well. But we do have our handful and they do make some noise. You, on the other hand, have a much bigger handful, some are really out there, chastised, sanctioned, committee assignments stripped, real Congressional shock jocks. Not to mention McCarthy who is basically a Trumper playing to that base, hopefully to his demise as you alluded to. McConnell is always pure politics, God only knows what he will do next, but certainly not a Trumper. But between the two camps, I would say your side has a higher risk of inciting Democratic voters than vice-versa. Not that your Trump base is not incited (or indicted) already. For example, you seem to think there are Trumpers and there are “true” Republicans. Look at the Infrastructure vote where Republicans not only overwhelmingly votes NO, they then took credit for passing the bill. That’s the fringe tail wagging the dog at minimum. But I think many will see the entire party as controlled by the fringe, no matter what is really in their hearts. And I think your fringe hurts you more than ours hurts us.

        Of course, there’s always the pure numbers too. It America, it’s get injected or get infected, and the 1-2K deaths each day are 80% unvaccinated, and mostly Conservative. At some point, those numbers will matter. Apparently not for those leaders who mislead on the message, but just in raw numbers of available voters. You have got to be worried about that.

        Bottom line: I really can’t push back on your opinion, your conclusions, but still feel there’s a long road ahead of us and plenty of potholes for either side to successfully navigate to be able to reach their desired destination.

        Beyond the bottom line: problem is that it probably does not matter who wins; neither side will work towards a better America and will just continue the election well beyond the vote. Hell, the current Leader has not even conceded the last election, how un Democratic is that? What kind of party allows that behavior?

        PS: Don’t agree with Brau on economy; there’s good things but plenty to be concerned about; and, like Trump’s economy, the blessings are not universal across all economic strata’s.

  5. Joseph S. Bruder

    It’s disingenuous to compare Afghanistan and Ukraine. Afghanistan was lost almost 20 years ago. Biden just cut the losses, both in treasure and in lives. There was absolutely nothing that would have changed if we left when we did compared to staying another 5 or 10 years. And we went into Afghanistan for all the wrong reasons – petty revenge, based on lies, keeping the defense industry happy, and a bunch of right-wing warmongerers who insist that we are better off being in wars than not.

    Ukraine, on the other hand, wants to be independent of Russia and they are willing to fight for it. We’ve been training them for a long time, and they are capable of at least slowing the Russians down. It is in our strategic interests to keep Ukraine free of Russia’s influence, and even bring them into NATO eventually. It would also be a success story for democracy if Ukraine can remain independent. Biden will support Ukraine, because it’s the right thing to do, as opposed to Trump selling them out.

    I think that the Jan 6th hearings, and the resulting criminal indictments up to and including Trump will also play a role. It’s pretty easy to see what Republicans were up to, if your only source of news isn’t FOX. But when Trump is sitting in a cell for treason, people will notice. It won’t get back to 20% that Trump has completely in his cult, but Independents and even some Republicans figure out how much they’ve been lied to by Trump and the Republican Party.

    Despite Larry’s doom and gloom forecast, the economy is on an upswing. Biden has already accomplished more in a year than Trump did in four. Manchin is not doing Democrats any favors, but they’ll eventually find a way around him. It is WAY too early to declare that Democrats have lost 2022.

    • Willy furrow

      Had Biden’s dementia gotten to you? You’re a damned liar and a fool