
<p>The future is looking grim for Democrats as we move closer to the midterms and an anticipated landslide victory for the Republican Party &#8211; at least that’s what some sources predict. ;</p>



<p>The party that controls the White House can always expect to lose a few seats &#8211; in fact, only twice since 1974 has a president’s party actually <em>gained </em>seats during midterms &#8211; but this year is expected to be particularly rough for Democrats. ;</p>



<p>Voters&#8217; general opinion of the Biden Administration is “worse than it has been for any president in modern times, by almost any indicator,” warns Reid Wilson, a contributor for <em>The Hill.</em></p>



<p>According to Gallup, a sitting president whose approval rating is lower than 50% can expect to lose an average of 37 seats during a midterm election. Recent polls put Biden’s approval rating at 41%. <em>That figure is even lower in swing states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio (all of which have seats up for grabs).</em></p>



<p>A total of 469 seats could change hands in November: 34 in the Senate and 435 in the House. ;Based on Larry Sabato’s &#8220;Crystal Ball,&#8221; 214 House races are leaning Right and 193 are learning Left; an additional 28 could go either way. ;</p>



<p>As it stands now, Democrats control 220 House seats and Republicans control 208. There are seven vacancies &#8211; five previously held by Republicans and two by Democrats. ;The Senate is currently split 50-50 with Vice President Kamala Harris acting as tiebreaker. ;</p>



<p>If the GOP gains 30 House seats, Republicans will have a larger majority than they had in 2010 after gaining 63 seats. If the GOP picks up 35 seats, Republicans will have their largest House majority in 9 decades. ;</p>



<p>&#8220;With the redistricting process…more or less behind us, we have a relatively clear view of what the House playing field is going to look like in November,” says CNN’s Chris Cillizza. “The short answer is it&#8217;s going to look good for Republicans; the longer answer is it&#8217;s going to look VERY good for them.”</p>



<p>Two things are clear, continues Cillizza: &#8220;Republicans are headed for major gains and potentially historic ;gains in November and that things are getting worse, not better, for Joe Biden and his party&#8230;Republicans have every reason to be confident that they will not only retake the House majority in November but also have a comfortable margin with which to govern.&#8221;</p>



<p><strong>Factors expected to harm Democrats&#8217; chances include: ;</strong></p>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>President Biden’s weak performance and dismal approval ratings</li><li>Record-breaking inflation and gas prices</li><li>The ongoing effects of the pandemic on employment and the economy</li><li>The resolution of the January 6th hearings ;</li></ul>



<p><strong>Factors expected to aid Democrats&#8217; chances include:</strong></p>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Opposition to laws regarding abortion, Critical Race Theory, and changes to election procedure </li><li>The Supreme Court’s upcoming decision on <em>Roe v. Wade</em></li><li>The fact that Democrats lost 13 House seats in 2020 (meaning the most vulnerable ones are already gone)</li></ul>



<p><strong>Factors that could help or harm the Democrats include voter turnout and redistricting/gerrymandering. ;</strong></p>



<p>According to <em>RacetotheWH&#8217;s </em>historically-accurate forecast algorithms, Democrats have a 29% chance of winning the House and a 57% chance of winning the Senate. Republicans&#8217; chances of winning each chamber are 72% and 43%, respectively. </p>



<p>In light of all the figures and factors outlined above, Democrats&#8217; only real chance at victory in November is to convince Americans that the Republican Party is to blame for their frustrations. </p>



<p>&#8220;Republicans want 2022 to be a referendum on Biden’s performance,&#8221; writes MSNBC contributor Dean Obeidallah, &#8220;but Democrats should turn the tables and frame the election as a referendum on Republican extremism: from the oppressive laws mentioned above to their embrace of the man who gave us Jan. 6. That could spike Democratic turnout.&#8221;</p>



<p><strong>Sources:</strong></p>



<p><a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3525374-democrats-face-congressional-rout-amid-historically-terrible-headwinds/">Democrats face congressional rout amid historically terrible headwinds ;</a></p>



<p><a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2022/06/14/republicans-2022-election-house-cillizza-the-point-orig.cnn">The 2022 election looks VERY good for Republicans ;</a></p>



<p><a href="https://www.racetothewh.com/house">Race to the White House House and Senate Forecast ;</a></p>



<p><a href="https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/democrats-chances-2022-midterm-elections-are-better-doomsayers-predict-n1290695">Democrats’ chances in the 2022 midterm elections are better than doomsayers predict ;</a></p>

Democrats Brace for Midterm Challenge
