<p>Today voters in Wisconsin handed Senator Ted Cruz a hearty win, at about 50% to Trumps 33%. Kasich drew about 15% of the vote. Cruz had the help of popular governor and former presidential hopeful Scott Walker. This is not surprising since most polls had Cruz in front.</p>
<p>Cruz believes he is on a roll, having picked off all of the delegates in two Congressional districts in Colorado, and also coming out of North Dakota with the support of 18 of the 24 delegates in a rather strange selection process.  ;Trump picked up only one from that state.</p>
<p>Despite these small victories, we stand by our math, that Donald Trump is still likely to win the nomination outright with over 1237 delegates.</p>
<p>As it stands Mr. Trump needs 56% of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 vote mark.  ;Senator Cruz would need 81%, our math says this is impossible.</p>
<p>If the polls ring true and Mr. Trump wins California, New York, and Pennsylvania, Trump would need fewer than 30% of the remainder, only 162 more delegates to reach 1237. With Chris Christie&#8217;s helpTrump will likely pick up another 51 in New Jersey.</p>
<p>National polls suggest he will probably pick up another 60-70 in the &#8220;proportional&#8221; states where delegates are split according to results. Trump doesn&#8217;t have to win these states, but he likely will.  ;This means Trump has 7 final winner-take-all states to pick up about 40-50 delegates out of over 250. Unless his campaign implodes, we still believe Trump is the nominee.</p>
<p>We have noted a great many commentators predicting a &#8220;brokered&#8221; convention. This is nonsense.</p>