Could Haley Pull an “Obama Style” Upset of Trump in Iowa

Donald Trump remains the GOP front-runner and holds a commanding lead in the critical Iowa primary. However, Hillary Clinton was also far and away the clear favorite going into the Iowa caucuses, and yet an upstart Barack Obama pulled a surprising victory.

Could Nikki Haley, who has been rising in the polls lately, do the same?

Trump, at 43%, sits 26% higher than Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley. The chances of a Haley upset seem quite unlikely. Still, legendary pollster Ann Selzer says it’s not impossible.

“It is two things that could happen. One is that something spectacular happens in the news cycle, and it shifts people’s thinking,” said Selzer. “…Or it could be that there’s a rush of new caucus-goers who are all lining up for one of the other contenders.”

Selzer mentioned former President Barack Obama’s Iowa Caucus win in 2008, where Hillary Clinton was the major favorite. Obama brought in a record amount people who had never participated in a caucus before. Selzer believed it was 57-58% new faces out of all Iowa Democrats caucusing in that election cycle.

And for other Republican presidential campaigns, that means there is a rough blueprint for taking down a heavy favorite.

“We’re going all in on Iowa, and we’re doubling our staff, and we’re putting more resources on the ground, opening that new headquarters over in West Des Moines and really increasing our presence in the state that I believe will, in a very real way, expand our footprint as we again continue on to caucus day,” said Matt Gorman, a senior advisor on Senator Tim Scott’s presidential campaign.

In the latest Iowa poll, Nikki Haley, outside of Donald Trump, was the biggest winner in gaining 10% in the last two months. That puts her tied with DeSantis at 16%.

“Nikki Haley is now second in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Time to start talking about a two-person race, one man and one woman,” said Ken Farnaso, the Press Secretary on Haley’s campaign.

DeSantis lost 3% in two months, but the candidate still thinks there is a way to eat at the former president’s commanding lead.

“Well, I think you’ll see that consolidation to continue, especially as some of the ‘Tier Two’ candidates continue to fade or to drop out. I think the next debate will be especially telling seeing who actually ends up showing up on the debate stage, who performs,” said Kristin Davison, the chief operating officer for Never Back Down. “That would be very indicative as to who will show up in Iowa on January 15th. And as that the field continues to diminish, I think you will see that consolidation grow, the footprint, grow and push the DeSantis ahead.”