According to a Pentagon report, released December 18, 2024, China has rapidly increased its nuclear capabilities, with more than 600 operational nuclear warheads as of mid-2024. This marks a tripling of its stockpile since 2020, and the Pentagon predicts it could surpass 1,000 warheads by 2030. Coupled with strengthened ties to Russia and heightened military pressure on Taiwan, these developments reveal an aggressive strategy to enhance Beijing’s influence both regionally and globally.
Key Findings from the Pentagon Report
The Pentagon’s annual China Military Power Report, required by Congress, provides a comprehensive overview of China’s military advancements and strategic objectives. Among its most significant revelations is Beijing’s effort to diversify its nuclear arsenal. Unlike its earlier, more limited approach, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is now constructing a wide range of nuclear weapons, from low-yield precision strike missiles to intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching the continental United States. A senior U.S. defense official noted, “The PLA continues its rapid nuclear build-up,” adding that China is building a “diversified nuclear force that would be comprised of systems ranging from low-yield precision strike missiles all the way up to ICBMs, with different options at basically every rung on the escalation ladder.”
This diversification not only increases China’s ability to target a broader range of adversaries but also provides options for calibrated responses across various levels of conflict. The Pentagon warns that these advancements reflect a strategy aimed at offsetting traditional asymmetries with the United States, particularly in conventional strike capabilities. “Beijing is going to be able to go after more and different types of targets, do greater damage and have more options for multiple rounds of counterstrikes,” a senior defense official explained.
U.S.-China Military Comparisons
Despite its rapid growth, China’s nuclear arsenal remains significantly smaller than those of the United States and Russia, both of which maintain stockpiles in the thousands. However, the pace and scope of China’s buildup suggest a deliberate effort to close this gap. The U.S. has urged Beijing to increase transparency about its nuclear program while emphasizing its commitment to defending allies and maintaining strategic stability. “The U.S. is urging China to be more transparent about its nuclear program, while also warning that America will defend its allies and take appropriate steps in response,” the report states.
The Pentagon’s broader defense strategy identifies China as America’s primary pacing challenge. This focus shapes U.S. military investments, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, where tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea persist. The Biden administration has sought to balance military preparedness with diplomatic engagement, resulting in a notable reduction in risky encounters between Chinese and U.S. forces since late 2023. However, the report highlights continued “unsafe” flights by Chinese aircraft near American and allied forces.
Strategic Partnerships and Regional Implications
China’s growing ties with Russia further complicate the global security landscape. Beijing has provided Moscow with dual-use items essential for military operations, indirectly supporting Russia’s ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This partnership strengthens China’s geopolitical leverage while challenging Western efforts to isolate Russia. According to the report, “The PRC seeks to amass national power to achieve what Xi Jinping has referred to as the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation by 2049 and to revise the international order in support of the PRC system of governments and its national interests.”
Meanwhile, China’s military activities around Taiwan have escalated, with increased naval deployments and air defense zone incursions. Just last week, a fleet of 90 Chinese vessels conducted maneuvers near Taiwan, a move Taiwanese officials interpreted as a simulated blockade. These actions underscore the PLA’s readiness to enforce Beijing’s claim over the self-governing island, which China aims to reunify—by force if necessary—by 2027. The report highlights that “China’s navy has been in the region more and that there have been increased crossings into the island’s air defense identification zone and major military exercises in the area.”
Corruption and Internal Challenges
Amid its military expansion, China faces significant internal challenges. A sweeping anti-corruption campaign within the PLA has led to the ousting of at least 15 high-ranking officials, including former Defense Minister Li Shangfu. These disruptions have reportedly hampered certain modernization efforts, particularly in missile development and silo construction. The Pentagon report notes that “The substantial problems they have with corruption that have yet to be resolved certainly could slow them down on the path toward the 2027 capabilities development milestone and beyond.”
While the Pentagon acknowledges that these scandals have shaken confidence within China’s military leadership, it also notes that corrective actions, such as repairing compromised missile facilities, could ultimately enhance operational readiness. This internal turbulence presents a mixed picture of progress and setbacks as China races to achieve its 2027 military modernization goals.
The Broader Impact
China’s nuclear and conventional military advancements reflect President Xi Jinping’s vision of national rejuvenation and a reconfigured international order. This ambition is evident not only in military terms but also in China’s expanding space capabilities and rapidly modernizing air and naval forces. By 2023, China had conducted 67 space launches—second only to the U.S.—and deployed over 200 satellites, further cementing its strategic reach.
However, economic challenges and the lingering effects of corruption could strain China’s long-term military ambitions. Official estimates of China’s defense budget, reported at $220 billion in 2023, may understate actual spending, which the Pentagon believes could be up to $700 Billion. Even so, China’s military expenditures remain roughly half of the U.S. defense budget.
The Pentagon’s assessment concludes with a warning: “Our National Security Strategy identifies the PRC as the only competitor with the intent, and increasingly, the capability, to reshape the international order.” As China continues its military expansion, the United States and its allies face an increasingly complex challenge to maintain stability in the region and beyond.