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China, Russia. The New Axis of Evil?

China, Russia. The New Axis of Evil?

If you are wondering what the world will look like after Putin wins in Ukraine. The future looks a bit bleak.  The result could be a very strong alliance run by totalitarian dictators who have no regard for the rights, freedoms and welfare of their people.

My Prediction? We will have a new axis of evil based around energy distribution.  This will start with the Russia and China alliance, centered around oil supplies. This will not be a love and brotherhood alliance, their cultures are very different. They do not share cultural values, but each is looking into building its empire and its influence, and each is looking to the other to fill part of its strategy.

Add to that Iran, of course. Again, no sharing of cultural values, but Iran desperately needs foreign trade and technology and they have oil to ship. China needs oil. The West is continually pounding on them and they don’t seem to want to give up their nuclear ambitions, so why not?

Syria, North Korea, and perhaps Venezuela will become part of the cartel. Why not, since they are pariahs in the West. The trade goods in the Russia-China axis are not quite as good as in the West but they are better than nothing.

The big question at this point is India. Sources tell me that the depth of anger at how the U.S. left Afghanistan is unfathomable. The Biden Administration left Afghanistan in complete chaos with a massive arsenal of weapons in the hands of the Taliban.

With this in the background, the Biden Administration recently sent an ambassador to tell India that it will be extremely displeased if India did not support the sanctions, making veiled threats as to what might happen if they did not comply.

India is not supporting the sanctions and continues to do business with Russia.

India needs energy too, Russia could easily build north-south pipelines that would make oil cheaper and more convenient for India.

And what about Saudi Arabia? Again no commonality in culture. But only a few years ago, oil prices were so low that Saudi Arabia was rapidly consuming its foreign currency reserves to support an increasingly bloated socialist society. Elements of that society, namely the large volatile Shia community, would quickly revolt without the continued welfare payments by the Wahadist government. They had may be 5 years before going bankrupt.

But now, since oil prices have gone up again, Saudi Arabia is fat and happy. Do they want to lose this?  They may very well join the axis of evil since it will likely keep energy prices high. Why not? What do we have to offer them in exchange?

As we have alluded to, the immediate issue is energy.

Russia does not produce the most oil in the world, only about 12% of the world’s total current output. The U.S. produces more, Saudi Arabia produces more, and about 120 other countries produce a certain amount.

The problem is that the world consumes oil at the same rate it is being produced, a very fine balance, so when a major producer like Russia (or the U.S. or Saudi Arabia) decides to change its output, it can have a dramatic effect on prices.  The countries that are willing to pay the most stay comfortable, the ones with weaker economies can endure severe hardships.

This can be a formidable weapon, especially given how much of Europe’s energy is imported.

If you ask what is the difference between our current situations of opposing individual totalitarian countries and opposing and evil alliance, that is it. This alliance will have casual control over energy supplies that the West needs, they can turn on as off as they please.

In the future, keep in mind that China has a manufacturing base with elements of high tech stolen from the West, this could be expanded throughout the alliance  This totalitarian axis might need less and less from the West, and, again, control energy needed by the West.

Will we be living in the dreaded “interesting times”?

Stay tuned, folks.

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2 Comments

  1. John J

    America must get serious about reindustrializing we need to make our own products and produce our own energy fuels; Mr. Trump had us energy independent and encouraged businesses to stay in and return to this country. Republicans will make it happen!

  2. Tom

    There is nothing original or particularly informative with your predictions which has not already been said over and over by many news networks and financial/business analysts. The problem is that there is not crystal ball. Countries change allegiances and strategies all of the time.

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