
<p>One of my several predictions, when President Biden surrendered in Afghanistan, was that China would be making overtures to the Taliban government. ; The two cultures are not natural allies. ; You will recall that when the Taliban took control of Afghanistan 20-plus years ago, they went on a rampage – destroying Buddhist symbols. ; That included the largest stone-carved depiction of Buddha in the world – which they turned to rubble with military armaments.</p>



<p>While the cameras and eyes of the world are on Ukraine, China has been reaching out to the Taliban. ; There is an overriding pragmatic consideration. ; Put simply, the Taliban needs money desperately and China would like access to Afghanistan’s rich resources – rare earth and lithium, to name two. ; And both nations see America – and the western democracies – as adversaries.</p>



<p>My prediction was recently vindicated by a report from the Vandenberg Coalition – a group of national security advisors, military specialists and academicians. ; ;</p>



<p>In looking at Afghanistan, the policy experts have seen what happened there as having a connection to Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine. ; Vindicating another of my predictions – that Biden’s leading the western nations unceremoniously out of Afghanistan would encourage Putin. ; He appears to have calculated that America – under Biden – and NATO were too weak and too splintered to rally around Ukraine. ; He may have been wrong, but the withdrawal from Afghanistan gave Putin a wrong impression – and led to the invasion.</p>



<p>Putin believed that the west would watch his invasion from the grandstands – as they essentially did with Georgia, Chechnya and the Crimea. ; To a degree, he miscalculated – but not entirely. ; Certainly, the new-found unity of Europe … the willingness to impose strong sanctions and provide military hardware … and the resolve and ability of the Ukraine military and populations … all came as surprises to Putin. ; But the United States and NATO have yet to stand up to Putin in a way that will deny him some level of victory – they have practically conceded as much in the short run.</p>



<p>Consequently, China can deploy its global strategies without much attention from the rest of the world. ; The only interest Biden &; Co. seems to have in China at this moment is how Xi will deal with the Russian invasion.</p>



<p>Afghanistan is a troubled nation. ; The Taliban government can control the country with guns, but they have not been able to jump-start the economy. ; Millions of Afghans are going hungry – many starving. ; There is an ongoing guerilla war between the Taliban terrorists and the IS-K terrorists. ; Both groups have gained from the vacuum left by Biden’s surrender – a fact confirmed by a United Nations report on Afghan domestic terrorism.</p>



<p>Chinese President Xi Jinping has every reason to help the Taliban to tighten its grip on Afghanistan. ; It is part of a regional strategy that also involves Pakistan and other central Asian nations. ; China and the United States do have a common interest in mitigating the growth of radical Muslim terrorism. ; But, accessing natural resources is much more difficult in an unstable or violent environment. ; Therefore China has a keen interest in stabilizing the Taliban rule.</p>



<p>The Coalition recommended that the Biden Administration continue to not recognize the Taliban as the legitimate government. ; In fact, the Chinese government has yet to recognize the Taliban as the legitimate government – but that could change.</p>



<p>The Coalition sees the most important diplomatic strategy with Afghanistan is to undertake a number of human rights initiatives with a longer-term goal of restoring stability and civil rights – especially for women. ; Don’t hold your breath on that one.</p>



<p>There does not seem to be an easy or obvious way to put the Afghanistan Humpty-Dumpty back together again after Biden’s incredibly incompetent blunder. ; I wish I could be more optimistic, but I only see the Afghanistan surrender as a problem that will continue to unfold to the detriment of the United States – and much of the free world. ; ;</p>



<p>So, there ‘tis.</p>

China moving into Afghanistan
