Can Trump Return to the White House in 2025?
Most pundits and political analysts (including this one) have put that prospect in the “no way in Hell” category.
Most of us who have put Trump into the political rearview mirror have based our opinions of examining Trump – his personality … political track record … the fact that he has almost never had a popularity rating over 50 percent … has all sorts of legal problems, including being under criminal investigation … and is being under daily barrage of negative news reports by a maliciously biased media.
States that Trump needed to win to achieve his upset victory in 2016 – at least upsetting to those on the left – have shifted more to the Democrat side of the ledger.
But maybe putting Trump alone under the microscope does not tell the whole story. After all, Trump was not exactly the most popular and admired guy in the world when he defeated Hillary Clinton, the Democrat establishment, the left-wing media, and a band of Republican apostates.
After four years of the most vicious attacks from the so-called loyal opposition … a two-year propaganda campaign falsely accusing him of conspiring with the Russians … one impeachment … Trump still won the votes of millions of Americans in a close 2020 presidential election – true no matter your opinion of the official outcome.
Now Trump has been impeached a second time – and has the Democrats and the left-wing media accusing him of leading an insurrection – an attempt to over through the 2020 election. In fact, those on the left have spread their venomous propaganda to the entire Republican Party – with Trump leading an ongoing or prospective coup attempt. According to the voices of the left (as heard daily on MSNBC), Trump is a threat to the Republic. They even claim that he is a threat to democratic institutions across the globe.
And in terms of the court cases, the chickens are starting to roost. His family business has been convicted of tax fraud – and find millions of dollars. His Mar-a-Largo home has been raided.
With so much baggage, it would seem inconceivable that Trump could get elected to a school board in Mississippi.
But only at Trump does not provide a complete picture of how voters will respond to Trump’s run for a second term. As dramatic as may be the facts surrounding Trump, perhaps we need to take a deep dive into the opposition.
Democrats made that mistake in 2016. They relied on Trump’s shortcomings to be enough. They failed to considered what the public thought of them – his opposition, and specifically Hillary Clinton. I think it would be fair to say that Trump won because a LOT of voters could not stomach Hillary. They chose the less-than-ideal Trump over an even more disliked Hillary.
Heading into 2024, is it POSSIBLE that Trump – with all his flaws and all his problems – could still be more desirable to a majority of voters than President Biden – or whomever the Democrats slate. Looking only at Trump’s baggage, we have to consider not only what the voting public thinks about it, but also what they think about the Democrats and their policies – their baggage.
One could get the sense that the average voter may hate Trump less than the Democrats and their media allies. The flood of anti-Trump, anti-Republican, anti-conservative news may leave the impression that there is widespread acceptance of those stories and perspectives. For sure, propaganda media has its followers and its effects, but the public is able to see distinctions between political narratives and the truth. As Lincoln noted, you cannot “fool all the people all the time.”
Left-wing arrogance tends to create a sense of superiority over what they describe as “low information voters.” It is that arrogance – and the fact that the biased media cannot see outside its bubble – that led to Trump’s surprising 2016 victory.
An argument could be made that Democrats and the media are believing their own narratives – and not everyone in America is that gullible. In many ways, the unrelenting and mendacious attacks on all things right of center have gone too far – and are resulting in a backlash that is helping Trump.
We can see some indicators of that. Polls that once had Biden besting Trump in a 2024 contest have been shifting. A recent Harvard poll actually shows Trump beating Biden. Trump’s favorable rating tops Biden in some recent polls – and in those who show Biden with a higher favorable rating, the margin is slim and often within the margin of error.
If there is a Biden/Trump race in 2024, voters may again be presented with a choice of which candidate they dislike less.
And there are the policies. Democrats have not been able to make their legislative successes widely popular with the American people. It is a sort of national indifference. Biden has not been able to sell them as the great accomplishments he claims them to be. For the most part, the public seems to be unimpressed.
There also seems to be a shifting away from the hardcore left-wing agenda. The nation may be getting weary of wokeness, identity politics, political correctness, gender fluidity, and the bogus narrative of epidemic racism.
Trump has been – and still is – seen as a disrupter of the establishment – and there is more anti-establishment sentiment among the public than Democrats may appreciate. The confidence in the White House, Congress, the Supreme Court, the FBI, and the national media are at all-time lows. That reflects a lot of anti-establishment sentiment.
While I currently cling to my view that Trump will not be returning to the White House in 2025, I would not declare it an impossibility. In many ways, his greater roadblock may be securing the Republican nomination. And we do not know with any confidence who the opponents will be.
There is a lot of time between now and the 2024 presidential election – with a lot of critical issues to unfold in the meantime. How will Trump come out on his legal issues? How will the issues of crime, border security, the Ukraine War, and Biden’s personal problems (Hunter, classified documents, health) roll out with Republicans mounting investigations for the next couple years.
No time for predictions, but it would be foolhardy to count Trump out completely.
So, there ‘tis.