No matter what you think of President Trump as a person or the achievements of his administration, there is no doubt that the status of various legal cases are not trending in his favor.
Much to the chagrin of the Trump haters, I have often drawn the critical difference between a court-of-law – with all its constitutional requirements and protections – and the political court-of-public-opinion – susceptible to rumors, disinformation, and false accusations. One is designed to find truth through the analysis of facts by both sides. The other is vulnerable to passion and perception as opposed to reality. In a court-of-law, they build cases to win convictions. In the court-of-public-opinion, they create bogus narratives to win elections.
Hard core loyalists have expressed their chagrin that I will express my dislike for the personal traits of the man – and am unwilling to follow his script. In terms of his legal vulnerabilities, I have taken a wait and see posture – noting that any accusations against Trump will be harder to prove in a court-of-law. As far as the Select Committee’s political dog-and-pony show, nothing new. Whatever they determine will be meaningless political fodder if it does not lead to action by the Department of Justice.
I have also opined in the past that Trump’s greatest danger may be from his activities as head of the Trump Organization in the years before the presidency. Many of his actions following the 2020 presidential election pose less vulnerability, in my judgment – but not zero. Allow me to explain.
Three recent events must be VERY disturbing to Trump – and may portend serious problems ahead.
The Raid on Mar-a-Lago
The first is the FBI raid on his residence at Mar-a-Lago. (Most folks understand it was a raid despite the efforts of those on the left to redefine it as some sort of “visit”.)
To say this was unprecedented is an understatement. It set off a hornets’ nest of anger among Trump loyalists – and others. The surface explanation is the recovery of White House documents that Trump says are his – and Attorney General Merrick Garland claims to be the property of the American people. Having worked for the White House on two occasions, I am inclined to believe that most of those documents should not have been removed.
I think the Trump haters lose on the issue of classified information since the Constitution gives the President unfettered powers to declare things declassified – and the Constitution prescribes no process other than the President saying so. There is no clarity on the process. Trump even argues that taking the records home automatically declassifies them – and there are no laws to say he is wrong. It is an unsettled issue that needs a constitutional amendment and a decision by the Supreme Court to any challenges.
There is the 1978 Presidential Records Act that seems to cover the improper removal. How far Attorney General Garland can take that law, in this case, is yet to be seen.
Perhaps the greatest danger to Trump as an aftermath of the raid is the discovery of evidence of other potential crimes. While Garland may not have sufficient reason to raid Trump’s home on other issues, the DOJ can use anything they coincidentally find – things that might impact on the Georgia Case or the New York Case. Some have speculated that fishing for other evidence was the real purpose of the raid.
The Georgia Case
Sorting out what Trump and others did that was perfectly legal and what may not be is complicated. For example, the Trump haters see his request for 11,780 votes as a demand to steal those votes. However, it could just as easily mean that Trump believed there were thousands of illegal votes and he only needed 11,780 to be thrown out. I would be surprised if that resulted in even an indictment – and it is impossible to imagine a conviction. So, there must be something else.
The Georgia case warmed up a bit with the announcement that former Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani is now a “target” of the investigations. That means the local prosecutor believes she has sufficient evidence to indict and convict Giuliani of a crime … a serious crime.
We do not yet know the nature of the crime – or whether it will lead to Trump, himself. The best speculation is that it is lying to investigators. If that is the charge – as opposed to vote fraud – Trump will be in the clear. At this juncture, there is nothing specific being reported that links Trump to any vote fraud in Georgia – or anywhere else. The left-wing media accused Trump of being guilty of many things in the past, but fails to produce any compelling evidence.
The New York City Case
I have opined in the past that the greatest legal threat to Trump may be in the New York Case – where the Trump Organization is being investigated for a range of criminal business activities.
It may seem a bit cynical, but my opinion is at least partially based on the fact that he has been a major New York City real estate developer for decades. I think the potential of having broken the law is rather high. It is not just because he is Donald Trump, but that almost any major urban real estate developer would be found to have committed crimes — if investigated. The opportunities are vast and the consequences generally nil.
The New York City Case went from warm to hot with the announcement that the Trump Organization’s chief accountant and family friend, Allen Weisselberg, has pled guilty to 15 felonies over the course of many years. This is not an indictment. Weisselberg has seen the evidence against him and decided that he has no credible defense — and can only limit his sentence by pleading “guilty,”
Knowing the structure of the Trump Organization – and the Donald’s reputation for knowing everything that goes on – it is difficult to imagine that criminal fraud could have been ongoing for years without his knowledge. It will have to be proven, of course – but it does not look good for Trump.
Also, Weisselberg will now be facing sentencing. Flipping on Trump – and other members of the family – is the only way he can lessen his jail time. Given the long intimate relationship Weisselberg has had with the Trump family, if he flips, I would say that Trump is in deep doo-doo.
Remember … the prosecutors will not lesson Weisselberg’s sentence unless he can produce very convincing evidence on the boss. The only positive option for Trump is if Weisselberg hangs tough and refuses to flip on Trump – taking the longer sentence. Hard to imagine that happening no matter how close the family ties have been over the years.
The Capitol Hill Case
Nothing new with that one. In fact, it has become a tiresome repetitious regurgitation of old accusations—and the insurrection, coup attempt, civil war hyperbole is starting to wear thin. That case — being relentlessly pursued by Speaker Pelosi’s one-sided Select Committee – is long on accusations and very short real evidence of anything that would stand up in a court-of-law.
Summary
If I had to give odds, I think the odds of Trump being indicted for something before the 2024 presidential election is at least 60/40. And the odds for a conviction are 50/50. I do not think we will see anything close to insurrections, sedition or treason.
(And for those of you on the left and right who want to interpret this commentary as a political judgment for or against Trump, it is not. It is just what I objectively deduce from what I see happening.)
So, there ‘tis.