
<p>Democrats have been hoping for – and predicting – that moment when President Biden’s polling numbers will improve. ; Yes, there are a couple of polls that have him tied with President Trump or a point or two ahead – well within the margin of error. ; For the most part, however, Trump leads in the head-to-head contest, the majority of the all-important battleground states and on the issues that voters say are the most important.</p>



<p>In fact, Trump appears to be gaining ground. ; Some pundits and election analysts expected that &#8212; and pointed to the outrageous financial judgments against Trump in the E. Jean Carroll and corporate fraud cases. ;</p>



<p>They seemed to have provided credibility to Trump’s claim that he is being persecuted – not prosecuted – for political purposes. ; This was especially true when an appellate court reduced the amount he was to pay from $450 million to $175 million during his appeal.</p>



<p>That is how it has been – and is – in the upside-down world of Donald Trump. ; The more bad news Democrats pile on, the more popular he becomes with the electorate. ; And yet, Democrats and their media cronies continue to double down on their one and only campaign theme – that Trump is an existential threat to American democracy.</p>



<p><strong>Trump as threat to democracy</strong></p>



<p>That is the Democrat’s trump card, so to speak. ; It is their ace in the hole. ; However, it has not been a convincing argument for months, and is not likely to attract more voters now or in the future. ; Most polls are split evenly on which candidate is the greater threat to American democracy. ; In some polls, Trump is actually ahead on that issue. ;</p>



<p>Trump’s position was given some impetus when third party candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. accused Biden of posing the greatest threat to democracy. ; He based it on such authoritarian practices of censorship and media propaganda.</p>



<p>The CBS/YouGov poll asked which candidate would be better in protecting American democracy and the rule of law. ; Biden got 34 percent of voters. ; And Trump got 33 percent. ; An NBC poll gave Biden 43 percent to Trump’s 41 percent on that issue. ; A statistical tie.</p>



<p>Ponder that. ; All that time and money Team Biden has put into selling Trump as the existential threat to democracy &#8212; all that extreme and hysterical scaremongering blabber from the leftwing press &#8212; and at best Biden breaks even on the issue, and even falls behind in some polls. ; Using scaremongering tactics to demonize Trump is clearly not working.</p>



<p><strong>Head-to-head</strong></p>



<p>The latest FOX News poll is in line with most of the other major pollsters, but there is one figure that stands out. ; It has Trump beating Biden by 50 percent to 45 percent. ; That is a significant margin in view of the closely divided American public. If that were an Election Day outcome, it would be considered a near landslide for Trump. ; But there is something even more important.</p>



<p>In previous commentaries, I had indicated that the difference between Trump and Biden – regardless of who was on top – was always a plurality, with each candidate pulling numbers in the mid-40 percentile range. ; What is new and very significant in the FOX poll is that Trump has inched to the 50 percent mark. ; That is a number that Biden has not attained in any poll since his disastrous surrender in Afghanistan. ; That has to be terrifying to Team Biden.</p>



<p><strong>Battleground states</strong></p>



<p>In terms of the battleground states – and the Electoral College vote – Trump maintains his strong lead in five of six key states. ; Trump is up by 5 points in Arizona, by 6 points in Georgia, by 5 points in Michigan, by 10 points in Nevada, and by 4 points in Pennsylvania. Biden prevails precariously in Wisconsin by only 2 points – essentially a statistical tie.</p>



<p><strong>Electoral College</strong></p>



<p>As we have learned in the past, the Electoral College vote is more important than the popular vote. It takes 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. Based on current polling data, Trump would get 324 electoral votes to Biden’s 214. ; To get 270+ electoral votes, Biden would have to turn around most of the battleground states.</p>



<p><strong>Right/wrong direction</strong></p>



<p>One of the historic key indicators of an election outcome is the question as to whether the nation is on the right track or the wrong track. ; A wrong track majority bodes ill for incumbents. ;</p>



<p>According to a number of polls, more than 70 percent of voters say America is on the wrong track. ; That is devastating for Team Biden – and it goes beyond the presidency. ; It can impact which party controls the Senate and the House, and innumerable offices across the land.</p>



<p>The breakdown between parties and the trend is even more ominous for Biden. ; Almost half (49%) of Democrats are dissatisfied with the direction of the country – and that is up an astounding 29 points since Biden took office. ; As can be expected, 92 percent of Republicans are dissatisfied – and that is up by 8 points. ; What may be the greatest concern for Biden is the 83 percent of independents who are dissatisfied – up 18 points since Biden took office.</p>



<p><a><strong>The issues</strong></a></p>



<p>In terms of issues, voters will be casting their ballots on the issues of greatest concern. ; Polls tell us that immigration and the economy alternately take the top spot. ; That is followed by crime, protecting democracy, and climate change.</p>



<p>On handling the economy and inflation, an NBC poll had Trump at 55 percent and Biden at 33 percent – a 22-point gap. On the issue of immigration and border protection, Trump trumps Biden by 30 points.</p>



<p>The latest Pew Research information I could find (that means Google and Bing AI could find) was a 2023 survey of the top issues. ; The TOP five issues were Economic Policy (Trump up by 12 points), Crime Policy (Trump up by 10 points), Immigration Policy (Trump up by 10 points), Budget Deficit Policies (Trump up by 8 points) and Foreign Policy (Trump up by 4 points).</p>



<p>Biden topped Trump Healthcare Policies (op 2 points), Abortion (up 12 points) and Climate Policies (up 14 points). ; But these were much further down the list of voter concerns &#8212; in 10<sup>th</sup>, 11<sup>th</sup> and 12<sup>th</sup> place.</p>



<p><strong>Age</strong></p>



<p>And no matter how Democrats try to create a parity between Biden’s and Trump’s age and mental acuity, Trump is still considered the most able physically and mentally by voters – but not by a wide margin. To some extent, the parity argument appears to be having a modicum of success.</p>



<p>At the bottom line, however, the polling numbers provide no good news for Biden on the age issue. ; According to the NBC Poll, 68 percent of voters have concern about Biden’s mental and physical health – with more than half (55%) having a “major concern.” ; ; In terms of Trump, 55 percent are somewhat concerned about Trump’s physical and mental health – with less than half (44%) having a “major concern.”</p>



<p><strong>Demographics</strong></p>



<p>Among the most important groups in the Democrat base are Blacks, Hispanics, Arabs and young voters. ; In 2020, Biden carried 87 percent of the Black vote. ; He is currently around 63 percent in recent polls. ; In 2020. Biden won 65 percent of the Hispanic vote. ; Current polls have Trump ahead by 5 points (39% to 34%).</p>



<p>In response to Biden’s support for Israel in the Hamas War – especially in providing weapons and ammunition – Biden support from Arab Americans has plummeted from 69 percent to 17 percent. Young voters between the ages of 18 and 34 give Trump overwhelming support – 54.4 percent to 36.6 percent, according to a FAU/Mainstreet Research poll.</p>



<p><strong>Summary</strong></p>



<p>It is natural for the political contenders to pick and choose from the data that reflects best on their positions and their potential. ; It is commonly called “spin” – a euphemism for “propaganda.” ; ; But an objective look at the preponderance of hard evidence and data gives insight into the reality of the situation at a given time.</p>



<p>Based on a more thorough analysis, the facts of this moment are very clear – and very problematic for Biden and the Democrats. ; Trump is ahead in almost every measure of voter preference. ; It is hard to mount a rational argument against the belief that if the election were held today – and as inconceivable as it may seem to those on the left &#8212; Trump would win both the popular vote and the Electoral College vote by a comfortable margin – maybe even a landslide.</p>



<p>That is not a prediction. ; Much can change in the months ahead. ; But at this point, it is Biden who has a much more daunting challenge &#8212; the much steeper hill to climb.</p>



<p>So, there ‘tis.</p>

Biden is currently losing the election big time
