
<p>The numbers vary from poll to poll – as would be expected. ; There is one consistency, however. ; President Biden’s popularity is sinking like the Titanic.</p>



<p>The most recent Gallup poll has Biden’s favorable rating at 43 percent – the lowest of his 8-month presidency. ; For the first time, the majority of Americans have an unfavorable view of Biden – 53 percent unfavorable, to be specific. ; Biden fairs slightly better in the FiveThirtyEight poll – with a favorable rating of 44.8 percent and an unfavorable of 49.0 percent. ;</p>



<p> ;In recent polls, Biden consistently falls slightly below Vice President Harris in the opinion of the public. ; She is viewed favorably by 49 percent of the public.</p>



<p>Biden’s downward slide is largely due to a shift in the all-important independent voters. ; Just three months ago, 55 percent of independents gave Biden a favorable rating. ; That number has dropped to just 37 percent – an 18 point drop in just three months.</p>



<p>Comparing him to the 13 Presidents since Harry Truman &#8212; at this point in their presidencies &#8212; Biden fairs slightly better than only two of them – President Trump and President Gerald Ford. ; In many cases, Biden’s deficit is in double digits. ; He is 36.3 points below President George W. Bush’s 81.1 percent approval rating.</p>



<p>There are three questions that need to be answered – especially by the political operatives in the White House and the Democrats on Capitol Hill. ; What is causing it? ; What are the political ramifications? ; Can it be turned around? ;</p>



<p>If you use a baseball analogy – it’s three strikes and you’re out. Biden has two strikes – the border crisis and the botched Afghan policy. ; He cannot escape responsibility and blame for either one.  ; The third strike is currently being delivered in the form of an increasingly controversial legislative package. ; The trillion-dollar Infrastructure Bill has bipartisan support – but the $3.5 to $5.5 trillion dollar –depending on who is counting &#8212; Reconciliation Bill is running into resistance within the Democratic Party and with the increasing numbers of voters.</p>



<p>There are other issues plaguing the President. ; Crime is soaring at record rates. ; The Democrat’s leniency on crime – especially among the powerful progressive wing of the Party – and the defund the police movement have given Republicans a distinct advantage among the public.</p>



<p>The principal ramification for presidents with low popularity ratings is that they lose the loyalty of their Party – especially in Congress. ; Elected officials do not generally follow a President who is sinking in popularity. ; Those in swing districts are especially vulnerable if they lock step behind an unpopular President.</p>



<p>This dive in the polls could not have come at a worse time for Biden. ; His signature legislative packages are slipping into uncertainty. ; Many of the votes he needs are from members of Congress who are heading into tough re-election campaigns. ; He may get his bipartisan Infrastructure Bill to his desk, but that is not a clear win for Democrats because it is bipartisan and relatively cheap. ; If Biden loses that, his political goose is cooked.</p>



<p>Perhaps the most significant ramification of Biden’s slippage will be seen in the 2022 midterm elections. ; Even before Biden’s numbers plummeted, most pundits predicted that the GOP would take control of the House. ; Unless Biden can somehow reclaim support from independents, a Republican House in 2023 would be all but a certainty – with a likely pick-up in the Senate.</p>



<p>The problem for Biden –and the Democrats – is that there is no easy fix to the issues that are driving the numbers down. ; There is almost no chance that the news regarding Afghanistan in the future will be good for Biden. ; Between now and November of 2022, there are likely to be a series of tragic stories relating to the Taliban takeover – like the ones we see already. ; The beheadings of America’s supporters, women being raped, people hung from cranes in public squares. ; These horrific events will continue for the foreseeable future. ; There may even be terrorist attacks on western nations and assets.</p>



<p>In terms of the border, there is no quick fix. ; Biden’s policies have launched an unprecedented wave of illegal border crossing. ; He has triggered the migration of tens of thousands in which women and girls are being raped, people are murdered and the drug carnelians prosper. ; Twenty percent of those arriving at the border have diseases – including Covid. ; None of this will not ebb as long as Democrats maintain what is essentially an open borders policy.</p>



<p>Many Democrats believe that the passage of Biden’s Build Back Better legislation will turn the tide of public opinion. ; It will give him a win. ; But maybe not. ; The massive expenditure and the resultant inflation will be seen fairly quickly. ; Not so much the promised benefits. ; That would be strike three for Biden.</p>



<p>All this bad news for Biden – and we do not know if his polling numbers have bottomed out. ; If they slip into the 30s, we may be looking at a lame-duck president. ; There is not much more he can do – or undo – before America goes to the polls in November of 2022 – slightly more than one year from today</p>



<p>So. There ‘tis.</p>