The post-NATO press conference was billed as another make-or-break inflection point for President Biden – as were his State of the Union Speech, the debate, and the CNN Stephanopoulos interview. None of those highly promoted events lived up to the billing.
The closest was the debate. While it did not end Biden’s campaign, it put it into a tailspin. It unleashed panic among the Democrat political, media and donor classes. It at once forced Biden to come out of his bubble – and it made every future event seem like a make-or-break situation.
None of the past events forced Biden out of the race, but they also did not tamp down the increasing number of calls for him to withdraw from the race.
Since the beginning of the year, Biden has been on the losing end of a very close race according to the polls. President Trump has been on the leading side of most polls – but generally within the margin of error. More importantly, Trump has been doing better in the battleground states.
Most pundits and analysts on both sides have had the mantra for months: “If the election were today, Trump would win. But the election is not today.”
By most measures – especially the low hurdle to be overcome – Biden did ok. All he had to do was not fall into one of those obvious senior moments the White House staff worries about … a lot. If the debate had not happened, his performance at the post-NATO press conference would have been unremarkable – a modestly reported mediocre event. It would have changed nothing.
Ironically, it was an intensely scrutinized event by the media, political stakeholders and the American public – and based on early reports, it appears to have changed nothing.
Biden revealed some of his grasp on foreign policy, for which he is famous. But there were those moments. He referred his running mate as “Vice President Trump” – after earlier introducing Ukrainian President Zelenskyy as “President Putin.” He stumbled around rhetorically on several occasions – abruptly stopping as if he lost his train of thought. In normal times, they would not seem noteworthy, but these are not normal times.
The issue that seemed to give him the most difficulty in setting aside concerns was the question of a formal neurological test. He again demurred – but said he would take one if his doctor advised. Given his age and his symptoms, there is not a competent doctor on earth who would not recommend the test. Biden is rejecting the test because he knows he would have difficulties passing it.
Overall, Biden did a good job — but not good enough to restore confidence that he can win and serve four more years. He still professes his determination to stay in the race … and win. Conversely, the pressure on him to get out is continuing to rise. Within minutes of the end of the press conference, two more Democrat members of the House called on him to withdraw – others are expected to follow (or may have done so by the time you read this).
Members of his party are now openly saying that Biden cannot win. Vermont Senator Peter Welch was the first. Colorado Governor Michael Bennett went further. He foresees Trump winning in a landslide, taking the House and Senate with him — and others have made similar predictions.
While the national polls have the race as essentially a tie, that is not what members of Congress are reporting in their districts. The panic in the Democrat ranks is not without justification. The dream of regaining control of the House has been essentially abandoned with Biden at the head of the ticket. And most pundits have already written off the Senate to the GOP.
What most Democrats seem to be seeing is a longshot win with a new standard bearer or a sure loss with Biden. While most media folks talk about the 180 days to the election, they have forgotten that the first early voting is in little more than 60 days – barely a month after the Democrat convention in August.
The idea that there are special make-or-break events in the future is no longer valid. Every time he ventures out of his protective bubble it is a make-or-break event. Biden has cleared (barely) the hurdle of the press conference — but there is nothing but hurdles between now and Election Day. And Biden has to clear every one of them.
So, there ‘tis.